Minor League Statcast Scouting: 5 Standout Hitters from 2024

The annual return of spring coaching in Main League Baseball represents a whole lot of thrilling issues, however essentially the most stunning side for my part is how a lot followers get caught up within the nonsense of all of it. Grainy footage of stay batting apply periods. A hitter experimenting with a barely completely different stance on the plate. A pitcher’s common fastball velocity going up 2 MPH after his first outing. A pitcher’s common fastball velocity taking place 2 MPH after his first outing! Developments like this will not be meaningless in themselves, however yearly, a lot of what fanbases dedicate their emotional vitality to throughout spring coaching is inconsequential by season’s finish.

One other enjoyable half about this time of yr is the possibility to see the sport’s most fun prospects face main league competitors, and for extra astute followers, to look at their up-to-the-minute Statcast numbers throughout these spring video games. Fortunately, all AAA ballparks are geared up with Statcast expertise, so superior metrics are publicly accessible for prospects whereas they’re nonetheless within the minor leagues! Utilizing this glorious tutorial from Robert Frey, I just lately scraped pitch-level Statcast information for your entire 2024 season utilizing Python. Listed below are 5 younger hitters that I’m intrigued by going into spring coaching in 2025, primarily based on their AAA metrics in 2024. Overreact accordingly.

1. Johnathan Rodríguez, OF (CLE)

Key stat: 106.4 MPH Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity

When trying on the AAA Statcast power-hitting leaderboards, Rodríguez is a reputation that instantly jumps off the web page. Amongst all hitters at that stage aged 26 and beneath with a minimum of 100 batted balls on the season, his Ninetieth-percentile exit velocity locations third behind James Wooden and Junior Caminero. His hardest-hit ball of the season was a scorching 116.8 MPH, a mark that was topped solely by Caminero, Pedro León, and fellow Guardian Jhonkensy Noel.

Rodríguez, now 25, bought his first style of big-league motion final spring within the type of a short 13-game stint during which he didn’t make an excessive amount of noise (63 wRC+). You additionally received’t discover the previous third-round choose close to the highest of any main outlet’s record of greatest Guardians prospects. Swing-and-miss is a priority, as evidenced by his below-average zone contact charge at AAA and his 35% strikeout charge from his time within the majors. Nevertheless, he is aware of how you can take a pitch, and the general strategy was sufficient to snag him MVP honors at AAA’s Worldwide League final season.

Rodríguez additionally turned heads when Fangraphs launched their projections for 2025. Varied methods are conflicted on what to make of him, however for what it’s price, ZiPS is forecasting a 112 wRC+. OOPSY, their latest mannequin, has him at 110. His path for enjoying time is unclear as of now, which is what makes this such an enormous coaching camp for him.

Cleveland may have Lane Thomas, acquired ultimately yr’s commerce deadline, roaming the outfield for a full season together with the always-electric Steven Kwan. Will Brennan and Tyler Freeman are additionally forward of Rodríguez on the depth chart, and Kyle Manzardo is prone to see the majority of accessible reps at DH. We can also’t overlook Noel, who definitely earned extra goodwill than Rodriguez did throughout his debut season. He’ll should push via a logjam to earn a roster spot, however similar to so many different hitters seeking to show their price over these subsequent few weeks, therein lies alternative.

The Guardians are rightfully seen as one of many extra resourceful franchises within the recreation, however their largest organizational problem the previous few years has been discovering offense to assist José Ramírez. Curiously, they’ve a protracted monitor document with prospects like this: Huge, sturdy, power-hitting nook outfield sorts. Franmil Reyes and Oscar González didn’t work out, and so they’re hoping Noel can change into what guys like that had been speculated to. Rodríguez is one other one from that mildew who has a reasonably good probability to interrupt via, seeing because it doesn’t get significantly better at AAA than he was. The previous few iterations of profitable Cleveland groups at all times appear to have a pair relative unknowns who’ve a coming-out get together with the bat – don’t be shocked if Johnathan Rodríguez is considered one of them this time round.

2. Jacob Wilson, SS (ATH)

Key Stat: 98.9% Zone Contact%

Only a yr after being drafted sixth general and flying up the A’s minor-league ranks, Jacob Wilson made his debut in Oakland final yr, notched his first MLB hit in his first recreation – and strained his hamstring rounding the bases, requiring a visit to the injured record. He made it again in time for the top of the franchise’s closing season on the Coliseum, and good factor, as a result of he’s speculated to be an enormous a part of their first one in Sacramento. Fangraphs’ depth charts venture Wilson for 546 plate appearances in 2025 – and to complete second on the staff in WAR behind solely Brent Rooker.

Why so bullish? For starters, no, you aren’t misreading the italicized textual content beneath this part’s heading: Jacob Wilson made contact on 98.9% of his swings within the strike zone. To place that into context, one of many emblems of being an elite contact hitter shouldn’t be lacking on swings within the zone. A choose few hitters – solely a handful – will ever put up a zone contact charge over 90% in any given season. Luis Arraez, the one hitter in baseball that has made a residing off hitting for common above anything, has a profession zone-contact charge of 93.8%. Wilson was a decimal level away from 99% at AAA final yr. He swung and missed at 1% of pitches over the center of the plate as properly. Each these marks clearly led all AAA hitters with that 100-batted-ball threshold.

Pattern dimension is clearly essential to think about right here. The A’s referred to as him as much as AAA after simply 22 video games at AA, and he solely performed 26 video games there earlier than being moved alongside to the large membership. It’s unlikely that he is available in and leads the league in hits and common, however the truth that it’s even a distant chance for somebody who was drafted lower than two calendar years in the past with simply 103 MLB plate appearances to their identify is a testomony to the distinctive skillset Wilson possesses.

As with most gamers of this archetype, his energy numbers lag behind and his plate self-discipline isn’t that spectacular both – you may’t notch all these hits with out being a bit of little bit of a free swinger – however it might even be unfair to easily label Wilson a slap hitter. His AAA batted ball information signifies an above-average charge of pulled fly balls and an optimum distribution of contact between 95 and 105 MPH, that are two traits important for outpacing anticipated residence run totals primarily based on exit velocity. He additionally racked up 28 doubles throughout simply 226 minor-league plate appearances final yr.

The Athletics are considerably aimless in the mean time, set to name a minor league park residence for the subsequent few years and no confirmed date but for his or her much-anticipated transfer to Las Vegas. Wilson, Baseball America’s Thirty eighth-ranked prospect within the recreation, ought to be a fixture for no matter comes their means subsequent.

3. Nacho Alvarez Jr., IF (ATL)

Key Stat: 6.0 hitting run worth/100 PA

Few groups are in search of some get-back fairly just like the Atlanta Braves shall be this season. Armed with reinforcements that ought to be coming off the shelf from harm at numerous factors all through the season, they determine to be loads nearer to the 104-win powerhouse they had been a pair years in the past than the one that hardly managed to limp into the postseason final yr.

So far as the offense goes, the one noticeable weak spot on the depth chart was shortstop. For all he can do with the glove, Orlando Arcia was not an imposing presence with the bat in 2024 (72 wRC+). The Braves have a younger gun by the identify of Nacho Alvarez Jr. which may put Arcia on the new seat if that doesn’t change.

Nothing from his participant card above immediately catches the attention till you think about that he did this all on the age of 21. In keeping with Baseball Reference, the common age of a AAA hitter is a bit of over 26 years outdated. The one 21-year-olds with greater than 100 batted balls at that stage final season had been Alvarez, Jackson Holliday, Jasson Domínguez, and Caminero. Alvarez’s offensive contributions had been price 17 runs of worth, prorated to roughly 6 per 100 plate appearances. Each these figures led that group of hitters. Alvarez slashed .297/.368/.463 and struck out 45 instances in comparison with 37 walks, that are superb outcomes no matter context, however he did it at age 21 in AAA.

Braves followers have one thing to be enthusiastic about, and what’s much more encouraging is the truth that there aren’t apparent pink flags after digging deeper into the metrics. He has the makings of a flexible menace on the plate – he didn’t chase an excessive amount of, he didn’t miss on his swings within the zone, and his success there didn’t come at the price of energy.

Amidst the slew of accidents, Alvarez was capable of dip his ft into big-league waters for eight video games final summer season. He solely went 3-for-30 with three singles, and no indication has been given as of now that Arcia’s spot because the staff’s major shortstop is in peril. Nevertheless, if Atlanta finds themselves trying so as to add a jolt to their lineup midseason, the most effective resolution might very properly come from inside.

4. Adrian Del Castillo, C (AZ)

Key Stat: 11.4% Barrel%/BBE

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a conundrum on their fingers. A few seasons in the past, they traded for Gabriel Moreno, their catcher for the longer term. He was a success, profitable a Gold Glove in his first full season within the present and serving to to steer the staff to a surprising berth within the World Collection. He was piecing collectively one other stable season in 2024 earlier than an harm restricted him to only 97 video games on the yr. Wholesome once more, Moreno ought to be one of many premier catchers within the recreation in 2025.

What the Diamondbacks had been probably not ready for once they made this commerce was this sort of emergence of Adrian Del Castillo, who was a flat-out hitting machine in every single place he performed final season. Del Castillo was a second-rounder in 2021, so that they undoubtedly had excessive expectations for him, however at age 25, he burst onto the scene after Moreno’s harm, posting a 146 wRC+ in 25 video games. This was inflated by a cartoonish .438 BABIP and a 91-point distinction between his wOBA and his xwOBA – Fangraphs projections see him straddling the road of being a league-average hitter in 2025, which might be truthful – however on the identical time, there isn’t a lot left for him to perform within the minors.

Arizona’s AAA affiliate, the Reno Aces, play at a hitter-friendly ballpark within the skinny desert air. As such, the next numbers ought to be taken with a grain of salt, nevertheless it’s nonetheless price mentioning that Del Castillo hit 26 residence runs and slashed .312/.399/.603 in 105 video games at that stage in 2024. The underlying numbers again it up properly – his 11.4% barrel charge was second amongst all AAA catchers aged 26 and beneath with a minimum of 100 BBE to solely Detroit’s Dillon Dingler. He hit the ball very laborious and he hit it within the air, plain and easy.

Strikeouts had been a problem as soon as he bought to the large leagues (32.2% strikeout charge), and so they have been up to now, as his first AAA stint in 2023 noticed him go down on strikes 28.9% of the time. Nevertheless, his AAA strikeout charge in 2024 was right down to 16.9%, so he has confirmed he can work on this challenge. His protection at catcher was subpar within the large leagues, however his bat ought to web him some extra taking part in time there this season. If the D-Backs select to maintain him on the place, this might be one of many extra harmful backstop tandems within the recreation all through the close to future.

5. Jace Jung, 3B (DET)

Key Stat: 16.1% BB%

The Tigers’ farm system is seen by most as top-of-the-line in baseball. They’d seven prospects listed in Baseball America’s prime 101 report from this winter; solely the Rays (9) had extra. Of these seven, Jace Jung was ranked the bottom at 97th, which says extra about how deep Detroit’s prospect pool is than anything – Jung was the Twelfth-overall choose simply three years in the past, and he appears no worse for put on following offseason wrist surgical procedure.

That is unhealthy information for the pitchers he faces this yr, as a result of persistence is a power of his. Amongst certified hitters, Jung’s 16.1% stroll charge positioned fifth within the Worldwide League in 2024 and eighth in AAA as a complete. His 21.2% chase charge ranked 14th amongst 26-and-under hitters with a minimum of 100 BBE, his charge of swinging from behind within the depend was 47.5% which was additionally on the decrease finish of that group, and he put up an above-average barrel charge to again it up. This makes for an fascinating profile for somebody who Fangraphs tasks will take up nearly all of taking part in time at third base for a younger and motivated Tigers staff that’s seeking to construct off a shock playoff run.

In fact, no prospect is with out flaws, and Jung might stand to learn from some additional refinement to his strategy. Whereas he saved on strolling with no problem, he did strike out a hair over 30% of the time throughout his 34-game cup of espresso on the large league stage final season. At AAA, he missed on 13.8% of his swings on pitches down the center of the plate, and eight.3% of his batted balls had been popups – each of that are a bit of excessive for my liking. Being within the twenty first percentile of AAA hitters in zone contact charge wasn’t excellent both.

Regardless of that, his superior means to see pitches and work the depend ought to put him forward of most of his friends by the point he establishes himself within the large leagues, and his uncooked energy was given a 60 grade on the 20-80 scale by Fangraphs on their midseason report from 2024. He’ll be thrilling to look at all spring, and if the Tigers can take one other step ahead in 2025, he’ll probably have one thing to do with it.

All percentile visualizations are my very own. Uncooked information pulled from Baseball Savant.