Hey, what’s up Bud Black, why you dressed as a Smurf with a blue face? Would you favor I name you Blue Black? Bud Blue? Haha, I’m simply joking, I do know you’re now and at all times Bud Black, the most effective managers in baseball, and never somebody I ever want to fret about taking part in somebody with promise. Anyway, I’m going to examine in on Michael Toglia. Seems to be like he’s set to hit cleanup and play daily for the Rockies. Candy, and he gained’t be topic to platoons as a result of he’s a change hitter. Probably will get 162 video games performed and accumulate every kind of counting stats. [two games into the season] Oh my God! Why is Michael Toglia being benched for Brandon Drury? Brandon Drury isn’t even on the Rockies! What’s Bud Black doing?! Oh, that’s why he had blue face paint? He’s Jokey Smurf! UGHHHHHHHHHH!!!
[shoots up in bed, sweating] Holy crap, I simply had the worst nightmare. I dreamt that I used to be writing a Michael Toglia sleeper put up, considering Bud Black would really play him, not bearing in mind how silly Bud Black is. What’s that? I actually am writing a Michael Toglia sleeper put up? OH NO!!! UGH!!! So, what can we count on from Michael Toglia for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! My 2025 fantasy baseball rankings on the Patreon began final week and are ongoing. Don’t await the rankings to return out subsequent month. Anyway II, the Michael Toglia sleeper:
Final 12 months in 116 video games and 399 ABs, Michael Toglia went 25/10/.218 with a 32.1 Ok% and 11.8 BB%. First off, the velocity is goofy. He’s fairly actually the Pitch Clock 12 come to life. The Pitch Clock 12 says {that a} man can steal 12 extra luggage, based mostly on the pitch clock, if he needs. So, if he’s neutrally an 8-steal man, he can steal 20 luggage if he needs. Wait, so meaning Toglia is a negative-two-steal man based mostly off his 10 steals final 12 months? Sure, really, that’s not unsuitable. In 45 video games in 2023, he stole one bag in MLB. If he had been to steal one bag in 2025 or 12, it wouldn’t shock me. He does stroll loads, so whereas the typical might not be nice, he can be on base to steal. Talking of averages…
Or ought to I say spanking my common down prefer it’s a baaaaaaaaaaaad, baaaaaaaaaaaad boy, spoken like Lou Costello. I don’t love splits, however let’s break Michael Toglia in half. Mich Tog was a .197 man with 16 HRs then Ael Lia was 9 HRs and .235. If he’s extra Ael Lia than Mich Tog, then he might be greater than in a position to toler with common for tolerable. Much less Seussian and extra how regular individuals discuss, Toglia gained’t be dangerous on common if he continues to hit .235 or higher. Will he? Appears potential. He had a .250 xBA. I’ve talked about up to now concerning the issues with that stat, however it’s being powered by loads of crimson on his Statcast web page.
That is pretty much as good as Statcast will get when you have horizontal imaginative and prescient. It’s like not having peripheral imaginative and prescient, however as an alternative you may’t see beneath the horizon, and the horizon on this case ends at Bat Pace. The excellent news is what we discovered this 12 months. What did we be taught this 12 months? That Sean Combs is extra like P. Diddly? No. I imply, I suppose, possibly you discovered that, however I’m speaking about what we discovered with Elly De La Cruz. Sucks that Toglia can’t make contact, but in addition we will’t put an excessive amount of emphasis on that. In contrast to Elly, he doesn’t have insane velocity, except you’re speaking about exit velocity. Toglia’s 92.1 common exit velocity is definitely larger than Elly’s, and, since I’m wanting, Elly’s Barrel% is 12.7, Arduous Hit% is 45.7 and LA Candy Spot% is 35.7. Should you don’t have reverse horizontal imaginative and prescient (not having the ability to search for), you’ll see Toglia handily beats Elly in all of these. Toglia is mainly high 15 in all of baseball for high quality of contact. That alone ought to have you ever drafting him in all places.
Let’s recap tremendous rapidly: Michael Toglia has an elite stroll charge, i.e., he waits for his pitch. Residence video games in Coors, so elevated balls and BABIP, i.e., he’ll produce higher common and energy than he could be projected for in a lesser park. He hits the whole lot exhausting eh-eff, i.e., extra elevated balls and BABIP. I earlier than E, I really imagine Michael Toglia might be a high 30 hitter with a 40/10/.250 season. In search of this 12 months’s Brent Rooker? Look no additional. Effectively, slightly bit additional for his projections. For 2025, I’ll give Michael Toglia projections of 77/33/86/.237/5 in 517 ABs with an opportunity for way more.
