I informed you as soon as, I informed you 1,000,000 occasions that there’s nobody method to pores and skin a fantasy baseball sleeper. They’re not all “draft after the highest 400 and return prime 200 worth.” A variety of them usually are not, tee bee aitch. I used to be wanting by means of Steamer projections once more, and, moreover stumbling on seeing Trevor Story had a projected 600+ plate appearances, and cackling for 45 minutes straight, I sorted by homers for third baseman in 2025 and would you have a look at that, Mark Vientos, was on the prime. What a wonderful factor that was to behold. Then I checked out his Mark Vientos’s ADP, noticed round 100 general and my eyes went crossed. NowIamstrugglingtotype amIusingthespacebar oramI hittingthetopofmydesk whereIthinkthespacebaris? By the way in which, I don’t need to unfold misinformation so I have to level out, Steamer doesn’t give Trevor Story 600+ plate appearances. Fangraphs did. We’ve our personal Steamer projections, they’ve their very own, and others may need theirs. Steamer offers charges and other people add their very own enjoying time. For unstints, Steamer may say Trevor Story can have .0035 HR per plate look, then Rudy provides 550 plate appearances or 125 plate appearances or 600+. So, when individuals say, “Steamer gave Trevor Story 600 plate appearances? That’s nuts!” They didn’t. No matter web site you’re at gave him 600 plate appearances. It’s semantics, however I don’t assume most individuals notice that. So, what can we count on from Mark Vientos for 2025 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! My 2025 fantasy baseball rankings are all on Patreon. Don’t await the rankings to return out subsequent month. Anyway II, the Mark Vientos sleeper:
After I stated Mark Vientos had essentially the most projected homers, did he? Sure and no. He did based on FanGraphs’ Steamer projections, which is what I used to be perusing. After I wrote this, we didn’t have our Steamer projections printed but. That does imply Steamer initiatives Vientos for essentially the most homers if him, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley, Machado, Jo-Ram and Burger all had the identical variety of ABs. That’s not, nothing. Mark Vientos acquired little or no fanfare for his earlier season, from what I noticed. Possibly if he had been a rookie (he wasn’t), he may’ve bought extra pub for individuals placing him in the identical convo as different ROY guys, however he had a random 218 ABs in 2023, the place he hit .211. The factor about that random 218 ABs, he additionally had a 114.9 MPH MaxEV. That was prime 20 in all of baseball. It’s not every part. You will get into one ball and never be nice, however it’s extremely uncommon. Should you get right into a ball at 115 MPH, then 99 out of 100 occasions, there’s one thing else there. Vientos wasn’t the uncommon exception. He’s one thing.
Mark Vientos’s 29.7 Okay% is regarding, however since he hits the ball so arduous, as beforehand talked about, he had a .324 BABIP, and that doesn’t really feel terribly excessive, even when his fly balls are. Talking of which, his 11.4 Launch Angle is a tad decrease than I’d wish to see, and he hits a number of too many floor balls. Speaking swing profile, and it’s flatter than you need, however not Yandy Diaz. His HR/FB% was 26.5, which is excessive. If he can nudge his fly balls to 40%, not far off his 36%, and his HR/FB stays round 20, then he’ll be okay. At 24 years of age, he simply hit 27 HRs and .266 in 413 ABs. That doesn’t occur by accident. As somebody who watches quite a lot of Mets video games, Vientos has straightforward energy. The ball zips off his bat. Anecdotal? I don’t know, doesn’t appear it once you see his exit velocity and the nice balls he bats up (completely an expression):
Went again and checked out 2021 through 2023 to see for those who may faux this sorta factor. I see no indication of that. Prime guys for barrels are prime guys. You don’t sting the ball that a lot on common accidentally. The weirdest examples I discovered had been an outlier of Sean Murphy in 2023. At the very least I believe it was an outlier, however he was harm final yr, so perhaps he bounces again. And Rowdy Tellez had an unbelievable yr in 2022 that appears like an outlier, however he can eat. Any hoo! I’m assured in saying no matter Mark Vientos’s ultimate ADP is, it’s not excessive sufficient. Should you inform me, he’s going at 100, I’m drafting him at 85. Should you inform me 85, I’m going 75. Should you inform me 65, I’m going 55. Should you inform me 55, I’m going–Okay, he has no velocity, really easy there, double nickel. For 2025, I’ll give Mark Vientos projections of 82/34/95/.251/1 in 580 ABs with an opportunity for extra.
