For a second straight offseason, Dylan Stop enters spring coaching as his workforce’s employees ace … and in addition as maybe essentially the most outstanding commerce candidate within the sport. The Padres, strapped for money all winter, have made subsequent to no additions to a roster that wants assist in left discipline, at designated hitter and within the closing few spots of the rotation. Buying and selling Stop would solely exacerbate their rotation want, however he’s the kind of arm who may return a direct fill-in (albeit one with a decrease and fewer established ceiling) along with younger prospects.
The Padres have entertained affords on nearly all of their impending free brokers beneath comparable strains of considering. Stop, Michael King, Luis Arraez and Robert Suarez (opt-out) have all seen their names pop up on the rumor circuit this winter. Stop most likely has essentially the most commerce worth of all of them, given his monitor document, sturdiness, affordable $13.75MM wage, high-octane arsenal and the potential for an buying membership to not solely add a Recreation 1 or Recreation 2 playoff starter to its roster but additionally to doubtlessly recoup a draft choose in 2026 if/when Stop rejects a qualifying provide in November.
A Stop commerce at this juncture would in some ways run parallel to final offseason’s commerce of Juan Soto, whom the Padres shipped out for fast MLB assist (King, Kyle Higashioka) and slate of MLB-ready (or near it) arms: Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito and prime prospect Drew Thorpe. The Padres moved Thorpe earlier than the season even started, utilizing him because the headline prospect to amass Stop within the first place. Now, they might conceivably commerce Stop for a lower-ceiling/less-established rotation arm and a few extra pitching depth and/or a younger outfielder.
Precise parallels for a Stop swap are laborious to come back by, although Anthony Franco lately took a take a look at some normal frameworks that the Padres may search in a bit for Commerce Rumors Entrance Workplace subscribers. Corbin Burnes, who went from the Brewers to the Orioles in alternate for MLB-ready assist in the infield (Joey Ortiz) and on the pitching employees (DL Corridor) — plus a aggressive stability draft choose — is the clearest comparable in latest reminiscence. Burnes was extra constant but additionally a bit costlier ($15.637MM to Stop’s $13.75MM).
It’s possible to assume the Padres may command a giant league-ready arm and outfielder to fill two holes on their roster whereas concurrently releasing up some money to backfill a few of the innings misplaced in a Stop commerce. Any deal delivery him out will carry again a lesser arm(s), and no matter financial savings the Padres safe may very well be used to additional tackle the again of the rotation. San Diego most likely isn’t going to surrender the picks essential to signal Nick Pivetta, however the free-agent market nonetheless has Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson, Cal Quantrill, Spencer Turnbull, Ross Stripling and Alex Wooden, amongst others.
Alternatively, any cash saved by way of buying and selling Stop may very well be put towards taking over a piece of an expensive starter’s contract. Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery and Steven Matz are all buy-low candidates however all may most likely be had with the present workforce selecting up a few of the invoice.
Let’s check out a few of the most closely fits for Stop primarily based on quite a lot of elements together with workforce want, payroll availability, luxurious tax standing and what sort of younger/cheap pitching and outfield assist stated theoretical commerce companions may provide…
Orioles: The Orioles have made a number of additions to the rotation this winter, however they’re typically missing ceiling. Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano would’ve been a higher-end pair to signal again in 2019 than in 2025. They may each nonetheless present some common and even barely better-than-average innings in bulk, but it surely’d be a shock if both seemed like a transparent playoff-caliber starter at season’s finish. Baltimore’s present rotation consists of that pair, Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. It’s a strong sufficient quintet on paper, and so they may get late-season assist from Kyle Bradish and/or Tyler Wells as that pair mends from a UCL surgical procedures carried out final June.
Baltimore hasn’t changed Burnes, who signed a six-year deal in Arizona, with an arm of comparable high quality. Stop can be simply that. Between Kremer, Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers and Chayce McDermott, the O’s have a set of cheap arms who may step into the again half of San Diego’s rotation. The prize for the Padres in a commerce with Baltimore would most likely be the bat acquired. The Orioles aren’t giving up Coby Mayo or Jackson Holliday for one 12 months of a starter, however Heston Kjerstad as soon as once more appears to be like like he’s a person with no clear path to taking part in time. The O’s may’ve penciled him in to exchange Anthony Santander, however they as an alternative signed Tyler O’Neill. Kjerstad turns 26 this month, has practically a 12 months of MLB service and hasn’t been given a full-time look. The O’s have touted outfielders like Enrique Bradfield Jr. and Dylan Beavers on the rise behind him, plus Colton Cowser already within the majors.
Pink Sox: Boston hasn’t made the massive free-agent splash that many anticipated, but it surely’s laborious to say that any workforce that acquired Garrett Crochet hasn’t invested in bolstering the rotation. Crochet joins Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, free agent signee Walker Buehler and (finally) a returning Lucas Giolito in a deep and proficient Pink Sox rotation combine. You possibly can argue the Sox don’t have to additional increase the group, however Buehler is a rebound candidate and Giolito may very well be on some form of set workload. Even when that’s not the case, a September (and hopefully for Craig Breslow & Co., October) rotation scene together with Crochet, Stop, Giolito, Houck and Buehler may very well be overpowering.
Crawford wilted significantly down the stretch, however he has 4 years of management remaining and is incomes simply $2.75MM this season. Depth arms like Quinn Priester, Richard Fitts and Cooper Criswell may all maintain enchantment to the Padres as nicely. None of that group has reached arbitration. Criswell is managed for 5 extra years. Priester and Fitts might be managed for six. The Sox aren’t giving up Jarren Duran or Ceddanne Rafaela for a 12 months of Stop, however would they take into account promoting excessive on Wilyer Abreu? They may flip to an outfield stopgap like Randal Grichuk or Mark Canha to provide them a right-handed bat whereas leaving the door open for uber prospect Roman Anthony to grab an everyday job earlier than later.
Twins: The Twins’ curiosity in Stop is a head-scratcher at first look, if solely as a result of Minnesota is in an identical payroll crunch to the Padres. Nonetheless, because the offseason has gone on, it’s been reported that Minnesota may not really want to chop payroll and may actually have a couple million to spend. The Twins may shed some cash in different trades, maybe delivery out Chris Paddack ($7.5MM), a few of Christian Vazquez’s contract (one 12 months, $10MM remaining) and/or utilityman Willi Castro ($6.4MM). A commerce with the Padres may additionally ship a bit of cash to San Diego, relying on which pitcher(s) and/or outfielders are included.
The Twins have Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and Paddack within the rotation at current, with prime prospects David Festa and Zebby Matthews already having made their main league debuts. Different arms like Andrew Morris and Travis Adams aren’t terribly removed from getting a glance. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes lately urged that the Padres would most likely need Ryan or Ober to headline a deal. Ryan looks as if a bridge too far for the Twins. Ober is incomes $3.35MM this season and has three years of membership management remaining. Any of Woods Richardson, Festa and/or Matthews is pre-arbitration. The Twins have younger outfielders like Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner to pitch. Larnach is making $2.1MM. Buying and selling one among Larnach or Wallner may open a clearer path for prime prospects Emmanuel Rodriguez or Luke Keaschall to step into the massive leagues. Keaschall has performed extra infield, however the Twins’ infield is already fairly crowded, so his eventual dwelling may very well be within the outfield or in a multi-position position.
Braves: With Spencer Strider on the mend from UCL surgical procedure and anticipated again someday in Could, the Braves don’t essentially have a obtrusive rotation want. Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach will create a formidable prime 4 — well being allowing. Righties Ian Anderson, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder, AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep are within the combine for begins whereas Strider is out and provides Atlanta ample depth for the fifth spot within the rotation ought to every of the highest 4 be wholesome early in the summertime. Drue Hackenberg, a 2023 second-rounder, climbed three minor league ranges and posted sharp outcomes throughout the board in 2024, offering much more depth.
That glut of arms for what ostensibly seems to be one closing rotation spot provides Atlanta loads of choices on the commerce market. If the Padres need to purchase a number of lower-end however MLB-ready arms in alternate for Stop, the Braves are a doubtlessly prime commerce companion. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has implied that any rotation addition would have to be a transparent improve over Anderson and Holmes, who’re out of minor league choices and thus digital locks to make the roster. Stop checks that field emphatically. And with Jurickson Profar now within the outfield, Atlanta may at the least take into account the opportunity of together with Jarred Kelenic in a deal as nicely. Kelenic’s worth is manner down after a middling 2024 season, however he has 4 seasons of membership management remaining and — as soon as Ronald Acuña Jr. is wholesome — minimal path to on a regular basis at-bats on a roster with Profar, Acuña and Michael Harris II.
Cubs: As with the Braves, the Cubs have a deep assortment of arms competing for what appears to be like to be one rotation spot. Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and Matthew Boyd are all rotation locks. Candidates for the fifth spot embrace Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks and Ben Brown — with prime prospect Cade Horton on the rise as nicely. Assad might be the favourite due to a 3.40 ERA via his first 294 large league frames, however below-average command and a subpar strikeout price result in less-appealing marks from different metrics like FIP (4.49) and SIERA (4.66). The Cubs additionally signed veteran Colin Rea on a one-year deal, giving them a seasoned No. 5 choice or swingman within the bullpen.
On prime of the plethora of younger arms, the Cubs have two top-100 outfield prospects in Owen Caissie (an authentic Padres draftee who went to the Cubs within the Yu Darvish commerce) and Kevin Alcantara. Each are basically MLB-ready. Alcantara has already debuted. Chicago has Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Kyle Tucker within the outfield with Seiya Suzuki at designated hitter. There’s no path to 2025 taking part in time for Caissie or Alcantara if the present outfield is wholesome. Plus, Happ and Suzuki are signed via 2026 whereas Crow-Armstrong is managed all through 2030. Dealing from their inventory of outfield expertise to additional cement themselves because the NL Central favourite and add a transparent playoff starter makes good sense. The Cubs already made a giant one-year wager on Tucker. That should embolden them to additional push all-in on 2025. On the very least, they might anticipate 2026 draft compensation for Tucker and Stop, lessening the sting of a few of the prospects they give up.
Mets: President of baseball operations David Stearns doesn’t appear to need to commit long-term to beginning pitchers, making Stop a pure goal. He’d instantly ascend to the highest of the rotation in Queens, giving the Mets the clear Recreation 1 sort of starter they presently lack. Stop, Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea would make a pleasant prime three, with Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, David Peterson and Paul Blackburn as choices to spherical out the employees … except, in fact, Peterson is among the names headed again to the Padres in a theoretical commerce bundle. Like Stop and Michael King final 12 months, he has two seasons of membership management remaining. He’d give the Friars an skilled arm to take up a few of Stop’s innings, and the Mets have loads of extra names to supply on prime of that.
Tylor Megill doesn’t look to have a transparent spot on the roster, barring accidents. He appears to be like like extra of a depth piece however may add some innings to the San Diego rotation. High pitching prospect Brandon Sproat is the kind of near-MLB arm who may function a headliner. The Mets even have interesting younger hitters like Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña. All three are infielders, however they’ve all at the least tinkered within the outfield as nicely. All three have the athleticism to deal with left discipline. Mauricio is recovering from an ACL tear and may not be prepared for Opening Day, whereas Acuña struggled within the minors final 12 months and may need extra seasoning. Regardless, they may very well be early-season choices, whereas somebody like Baty is perhaps an choice to step proper into left discipline if the Padres really feel a spring coaching of labor there may prepared him for a full-time look within the majors.
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There are, in fact, different golf equipment which have rotation wants and would absolutely inquire. The Angels appear to be an apparent match however don’t essentially have the gathering of younger arms and/or outfielders that the above groups possess. Jo Adell already has three years of MLB service and has but to ascertain himself. Taylor Ward is barely managed via 2026 and is making practically $8MM. The Angels want controllable younger arms simply as badly because the Padres.
The Blue Jays make some sense, as a workforce aggressively pursuing 2025 upgrades, however they’ve made these upgrades with out sacrificing a lot in the best way of prospects — maybe in a nod to a possible Plan B if this 12 months’s run at rivalry doesn’t pan out.
The Rangers, Brewers and Guardians may all make various levels of sense, however all three are operating up towards payroll points at this level. Texas may attempt to ship Jon Grey and/or Leody Taveras again to San Diego, however they’d want to incorporate vital prospects to offset that pair’s lack of long-term worth. The Brewers haven’t signed a free agent to a completely assured deal and seemingly haven’t any cash to spend. The Guards haven’t rented a veteran starter like this at any level in latest reminiscence and could also be tapped out after re-signing Shane Bieber, Austin Hedges and Carlos Santana and signing Paul Sewald. Maybe the Tigers may attempt to bundle some youthful arms (e.g. Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Keider Montero, Ty Madden) and a younger hitter like Justyn-Henry Malloy, however their latest addition of Jack Flaherty looks as if their closing transfer within the rotation.
Broadly, it’s fairly simple to make a case for Stop on fairly just a few groups. He’s a Cy Younger-caliber arm at his greatest and is being paid lower than the gathering of getting old veteran arms who signed one-year offers value $15-16MM this winter (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Charlie Morton, Alex Cobb). The very best suits, at the least from our vantage level, seem to reside in Baltimore, Boston, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Chicago (Cubs) and New York (Mets), nonetheless.
