The potential for a Nolan Arenado commerce has been one of the crucial persistent storylines of the 2024-25 offseason, and Arenado surged into the highlight yesterday when it was reported that he invoked his no-trade clause to quash a deal that may’ve despatched him to the Astros.
Additional particulars on the matter, unsurprisingly, have continued to leak out at this time and presumably will within the days and weeks forward. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Put up-Dispatch studies that whereas Arenado vetoed the potential deal to Houston, the Cardinals and Astros will proceed to barter and an eventual deal stays potential. Of additional word, whereas there’s been loads of discuss relating to the variety of groups to which Arenado would approve a commerce, Goold means that the third baseman has not at any level submitted a proper record of such groups to the Cardinals. Round 5 groups have spoken with the Cardinals a couple of commerce, per the report.
The dearth of a agency record may probably be attributable to the truth that Arenado’s willingness to approve a commerce to a different membership is context-dependent. Agent Joel Wolfe made clear ultimately week’s Winter Conferences that Arenado’s purpose is to land with a transparent win-now crew that can proceed to pursue a World Collection title for the stability of the three years remaining on his contract. A crew’s offseason dealings can impression the notion of whether or not they’re a real long-term contender.
Katie Woo and Chandler Rome of The Athletic report that, considerably paradoxically, the exact same transfer that in some regards paved the way in which for Houston’s pursuit of Arenado would possibly’ve diminished his willingness to go there: the commerce of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. For a participant searching for a perennial win-now ambiance, a crew concurrently buying and selling its greatest participant and balking at re-signing a franchise cornerstone (Alex Bregman) logically raises some pink flags. Woo and Rome write that Arenado needs to additional see how the third-base market performs out earlier than making any sort of determination, with Bregman’s eventual touchdown spot being one potential issue.
If that sounds counterintuitive, take into account that Arenado may very well be seen as one thing of a “Plan B” for groups with curiosity in Bregman. Bregman has been linked to each the Yankees and Pink Sox, for example. Both may maintain enchantment to Arenado, speculatively talking, however they might select to not ramp up their pursuit till Bregman is off the desk. Revisiting the talks with Houston may additionally happen if Bregman indicators elsewhere.
MLB.com’s John Denton appeared on 101 ESPN’s BK and Ferrario Present in St. Louis this morning and touched on the Arenado saga as nicely. He echoed most of the similar factors made in these studies and in his personal reporting in serving to break the no-trade growth yesterday, however he added the wrinkle that Arenado continues to be holding out hope for a possible match with the Dodgers.
Whereas Dodgers brass has publicly indicated that Max Muncy would be the crew’s third baseman subsequent season, Denton prompt some gamesmanship in these feedback and studies that the Dodgers nonetheless have some curiosity in Arenado. It’s arduous to see how that’d work with Muncy within the fold, Freddie Freeman at first base and Shohei Ohtani locked in at designated hitter.
Muncy would make an expensive and overqualified bench participant. He’s a extremely inexpensive starter at third, owed $12MM this 12 months with a $10MM membership choice for 2026. Muncy doesn’t have a no-trade clause, however the 2023-24 model of Arenado isn’t a transparent improve general — actually not when Muncy has been the superior hitter. Muncy’s .232/.358/.494 slash in 2024 (135 wRC+) outpaces Arenado’s .272/.325/.394 output (102 wRC+) — larger batting common for Arenado however. These roadblocks apart, Denton feels the Dodgers aren’t totally out of the query and that Arenado isn’t more likely to approve a deal anyplace “till the Dodgers inform him no to his face.”
There have been clearly many elements that went into Arenado’s determination to make the most of his no-trade provision, however whatever the specifics, the scratched Houston deal leaves the Playing cards in limbo. They’d prefer to open third base enjoying time for youthful gamers (e.g. Nolan Gorman, maybe Jordan Walker) and are concurrently hopeful of scaling again payroll forward of subsequent 12 months’s participant development-focused “reset” 12 months.
Buying and selling Arenado would’ve performed simply that, notably with the Astros apparently keen to foot nearly all of the invoice. Woo and Rome point out that Houston was keen to cowl round $45MM of Arenado’s deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan hears in a different way, reporting that the Astros have been keen to cowl a heftier $59MM of the $74MM remaining on the contract. That’s on prime of the $10MM the Rockies are protecting below the phrases of their prior deal. In essence, it appears the Cardinals would’ve solely been on the hook for anyplace from $5-19MM in complete — as in comparison with the $64MM they at present owe Arenado ($12MM of which is deferred). Woo and Rome write that president of baseball operations John Mozeliak is “going through strain from possession” to additional scale back payroll.
Taking a step additional again, Arenado’s varied reported causes for saying no to the Astros — at the very least in the meanwhile — recommend we could not get decision on his commerce candidacy anytime quickly. If Arenado is ready to see each whether or not the Dodgers make a severe push and to see the place Bregman lands (maybe opening the door for a match with an AL East contender), then the Cardinals’ arms are tied to an extent. Passan writes that the Houston veto may push the Playing cards to indicate willingness to eat extra of the contract, thus bringing in further suitors. Even in that situation, the ball could be squarely in Arenado’s court docket, and if he’s keen to attend out a number of associated market elements, this saga may drag on for a while.
In that situation, the Cardinals would possibly nicely be compelled to look into different methods they might shed some payroll. Steven Matz ($12MM), Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) and Ryan Helsley (projected $6.9MM) are among the many different short-term veterans on the roster who don’t maintain the identical no-trade provisions that Arenado, Sonny Grey, Willson Contreras and Miles Mikolas maintain. Each Contreras and Grey have reportedly advised the Cardinals that they like to remain in St. Louis and don’t plan to waive their no-trade rights.
