Know Your Averages 2024, Cutter Edition

What’s completely different in regards to the cutter? Scroll right down to the bar chart beneath to see that it’s within the zone the least of the three fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, cutter) analyzed on this collection. Within the zone the least, but swung on probably the most. Heck, it’s even chased out of the zone by hitters probably the most. That’s the cutter. When executed appropriately, it cuts in on a batter’s palms or it tails away from the barrel. How else does it examine to the four-seamer and sinker? On this article, we conclude the “Know Your Averages” collection with a jammed hitter, a damaged bat, and a sore palm.

4-seamers | Sinkers | Cutters

My course of depends on Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard which makes use of Statcast knowledge you could additionally discover at Baseball Savant and our (New!) Pitch Sort Splits on participant pages. Here’s a fast have a look at how the sinker stacks up in opposition to four-seamers and cutters in a number of measurements:

Let’s have a look at the pitchers beneath, at, and above common with their cutters in every measurement. Numerous what follows within the “Questions or feedback?” part is much less evaluation and extra factors for additional analysis or dialogue.

NOTE: The chart and desk above don’t embody a minimal pitch qualifier. The gamers within the evaluation beneath will fall below a 40-pitch minimal qualifier with some arbitrary creator finagling.

—Zone%—

Questions or feedback?: On Gallen’s 77 cutters within the 2024 season, we see that he’s clipping the zone simply over 1 / 4 of the time. He not often throws the pitch to right-handed batters however when he does he tends to find middle-away:

In opposition to lefties, he’s jamming them and sometimes coming just a little too inside:

Gallen’s cutter is one among six pitch varieties he’s thrown in 2024 and he continues to interrupt it out each infrequently to maintain hitters on their toes. A pitch like Arrighetti’s, which lives within the zone, has success regardless of its poor Stuff+ grade because of the method its form differs from the opposite choices in his arsenal:

Spencer Arrighetti, Baseball Savant

—Swing%—

Questions or feedback?: Of the cutter, four-seamer, and sinker, it’s our characteristic merchandise the cutter that will get probably the most swings. Ask three completely different baseball folks why that’s and also you’ll get three completely different solutions. It’s what occurs because of the swing that tells us something necessary. For instance, right here’s every pitcher’s cutter pVal, or measure of run worth, on every pitch:

Kuhl: -1.8   Kopech: 0.8   Strahm: 2.2

Keep in mind, Savant tells us that “constructive numbers are good and adverse numbers are poor”. On this case, Strahm’s cutter is getting swung at and has proven comparatively good outcomes.

—SwStr%—

Questions or feedback?: Adam Ottavino’s swing-and-miss 2024 cutter is the most effective of his profession, but it surely’s arduous to say whether or not that makes it pitch or not. It’s given up two dwelling runs in 2024 and has been hit for a .455 batting common. Maybe hitters miss it as soon as after which by no means miss it once more. Heck, even Ethan Roberts’ cutter solely will get hit for a .435 batting common. Baseball may be complicated.

—CallStr%—

Questions or feedback?: There’s one thing a few referred to as strike that I simply love. Possibly it occurs as a result of a pitch freezes a hitter. Possibly they don’t know what the heck it’s, in order that they don’t swing. Maybe they know what it’s, but in addition know that in the event that they swing, it might break their favourite bat. No matter it’s that creates a referred to as strike, Danny Coulombe will get numerous them. Oddly sufficient, Stuff+ doesn’t like Coulombe’s cutter in any respect because the pitch is nearing the “poor” classification based mostly on its grade. However, you may’t argue with outcomes you pc dorks!

—CSW%—

Questions or feedback?: Known as strikes plus whiffs and also you need extra of them. Robertson is effectively above common in each particular person metrics (CStr%: 25%, SwStr%: 13.2%) and hitters are solely attending to it for a .189 common. Inform that to his changeup, sinker, curveball, and four-seamer, every of which has a .000 batting common this season. Sure, they’ve been thrown. Bryce Miller alternatively? Effectively, he’s solely thrown 48 of them this 12 months and there could also be some classification difficulty occurring. Maybe it’s a pitch in experimental mode.

—Chase%—

Questions or feedback?: Right here he’s once more! Zac Gallen’s cutter not often leads to the zone; due to this fact, he will get batters to chase at an exaggerated price. Keep in mind, his Zone% is among the lowest within the league so most swings shall be chases. That doesn’t imply Gallen has or dangerous pitch in his cutter, its batting common in opposition to is .286 and there are numerous hitters who would kill to hit .286. The very best cutter in baseball from a batting common perspective? That belongs to Caleb Ferguson who solely sees his cutter get hit 14.6% of the time he throws it. And what about Schwellenbach? The person who has one of many lowest chase percentages within the league on his cutter. Its batting common is .310. A ball chased outdoors of the zone is a reasonably good indicator of a pitcher fooling the hitter, making them assume it was pitch to hit because it tails away from their bat. It’s often not factor when a pitch not often fools hitters and Schwellenbach might have to skinny out his six-pitch arsenal.

—

There are such a lot of other ways to guage a pitch, however one factor has at all times been true; a pitcher’s fastball is every little thing. Ev-ery-thing! With out it, he’s a sitting duck. With a foul one, he’s a sitting duck. With one, he’s extra more likely to have success. In spite of everything this plate-discipline analysis, it’s possible you’ll be questioning the place the king of the cutter, Emmanuel Clase, has been. Right here’s a fast comparability of Clase’s providing to the common:

Zone%: 56.4% (Avg. 51.1%)     Swing%: 55.3% (Avg. 49.1%)     SwStr%: 13.5% (Avg. 10.5%)

CallStr%: 16.7% (Avg. 15.1%)      CSW%: 30.2% (Avg. 25.5%)     Chase%: 19.9% (Avg. 12.8%)

Clase does every little thing higher than common along with his cutter, but none of those stats are captured within the min/max extremes and maybe that, plus throwing it 100 MPH, is what results in success.