Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – March 3, 2025

Justin Mason: Beginning a bit late at this time as a result of it’s TGFBI Day! I’ll start as quickly as I’ve sufficient questions so get these in. Within the meantime, please observe me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, fb, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I’m doing common podcasts on the FWFB podcast in addition to three episodes every week for the Sleeper and the Bust so positively ensure you are subscribed there as nicely!

Todd Gak: Cristopher Sanchez is a high ___ pitcher in 2025.

Justin Mason: 30-35 SP on my ranks proper now

Adenolith: Do you construct your projections from scratch or do you begin with a projection system after which manually alter for taking part in time/harm context and so on…?

Justin Mason: I do my projections from scratch. I have a look at the historic knowledge after which alter from there. I believe this results in much less bias for me.

Justin Mason: Jones, Chandler, Woo

Final Man In: I hope that your drafting went nicely at this time.

Justin Mason: Thanks! had an amazing LABR public sale final evening which the stay stream of it’s on my youtube after which TGFBI began a couple of minutes in the past and I used to be in a position to seize Ohtani with decide 2.

Adenolith: Do you method harm danger a bit totally different for H2H leagues? In my thoughts you’ll be able to climate accidents a bit extra in H2H if a man like Royce or Seager lifts your ceiling fairly considerably when wholesome.

Justin Mason: It actually relies on the quantity of IL spots I’ve. I are inclined to draft guys which are regular contributors in H2H. The blokes with huge ups and downs can sink you in particular person weeks which is irritating as a result of they’re so onerous to foretell. Nothing worse than dominating a league to lose within the playoffs due to these kinds of gamers.

Jay: Am I overrating A’s & Rays hitters going into draft season? Or ought to I simply snipe guys like Gelof, Soderstrom, Lowe & Lowe as near final rounders? (10 crew, factors)

Justin Mason: If you’re getting them that late, it’s definitely worth the gamble. It’s onerous to foretell how these park will play till we see them in season, however as a your previous few picks, there is no such thing as a actual draw back as a result of you’ll be able to drop them if want be.

Teddy: In a 12-team dynasty factors league, my crew is fairly center of the street. Ought to I commerce Blake Snell for Jared Jones and Bryan Woo?

Justin Mason: I don’t assume so

Jay: Am I bumping Bregman up an excessive amount of since he’ll doubtless acquire 2B in week 2 of the season? I see high 5 2B

Justin Mason: I don’t assume there’s a assure he really positive aspects the eligibility. Bregman suits the Pink Sox extra at 3B and Devers suits them extra at DH. So whereas it might be nice if Bregman gained that eligibility, I wouldn’t essentially financial institution on it but. That being stated, I’d have Bregman as a high 5 2B if he acquired the eligibility.

Justin Mason: Butler and it isn’t shut for me

Bobby Peru: What are you projecting for Matt McLain when it comes to triple slash and HR/SB? Do you see him taking part in ~150 video games?

Justin Mason: .268/.347/.487 with 21 dwelling runs and 24 stolen bases. Simply replace my projection on him at this time. I’m a purchaser since he’s wanting like he’s wholesome.

Mochi: What’s your course of for stopping your self from overpreparing for drafts?  Do you might have one?  Do you simply let it fly till you’re on the clock every decide and also you’re not anxious about overanalyzing?

Justin Mason: I really feel like I’m a traditional overprepper so perhaps I’m not the very best individual to reply this. Nonetheless, as soon as I’ve my projections and prep accomplished, I’m fairly good about simply making my picks the very best I can. I don’t overthink it whereas I’m on the clock as a result of I’ve put a lot time in earlier than that second.

How one can Begin: Holding the 4th/fifth/sixth decide… large weapons (Ohtani, Decide, Witt) are gone. In a typical 5×5 12 crew setting, who’re your subsequent 3? Soto is terrible tempting, however place shortage makes it onerous to move up Ramirez or Vlad, and Gunnar is one other good one even with SS depth. And I hate arms within the first, however Skubal needs to be within the combine too. The place do you go?

Justin Mason: For me it’s J-Ram. He’s simply such a constant stud, however I additionally don’t assume you’ll be able to go fallacious

Mochi: 10 crew roto 5×5, want to decide on 2 of 4 – Jack Flaherty twenty fifth spherical, Shota Imanaga 14th Spherical, Reynaldo Lopez twenty fifth Spherical, Jared Jones twenty fifth spherical.  Leaning Flaherty/Imanaga. However I actually wish to discuss myself into Jones.

Justin Mason: Flaherty/Imanaga for me

Tom: Does Reese Olson take that subsequent step in 2025 to grow to be a high 50-60 fantasy SP?

Justin Mason: I believe Olson is who he’s at this level which is a high-quality center of the rotation innings eater sort. I don’t assume there’s one other degree, however it’s a respectable flooring.

Limpin’ Jack Flash: Hey, J!  My bizarre league gives us one N/A spot which doesn’t rely towards our roster restrict.  Balancing chance of sufficient PA or IP to make a distinction in 5×5 H2H (OBP and SOLDS) with very tough ADP zone, whom are 2-3 good picks for this yr’s higher prospects?

Bobby Peru: Some other guys like Willson Contreras (C eligible however ought to get full time AB at one other place) you’re protecting your eyes on in ST?

Justin Mason: Hunter Goodman. There’s a ton of energy within the bat and he can play different positions for the Rockies. He strikes out an excessive amount of but when he has a task that nets him 500 PAs, he may hit 30+ bombs

Dodgers Blue: How rapidly is Schwellenbach transferring up the rankings – and is his value an excessive amount of at this level?  Who’re some various mini sleepers you’re nonetheless getting at an inexpensive value?

Dodgers Blue: Who’re some guys you’re predicting to have a considerable leap in SBs this yr that we aren’t pondering sufficient about?

Justin Mason: So for this, I have a look at groups. Guys on the Nationals, Brewers, Reds and Angels particularly Luis Rengifo, Yoan Moncada, Jacob Younger, Nathaniel Lowe, Joey Ortiz, Garrett Mitchell, Gavin Lux, Austin Hays

Final Man In: In a 12-team league that retains 10 gamers without end, with 2 UT spots and BB as a hitter class and IP as a pitching class.My High 9 are: Witt. Abrams. Caminero. Langford. Ja. Duran. Ragans. Skubal. Gilbert. Jh. Duran.I see the opposite possibles as: Semien. Butler. J. Naylor.What would you do?

Justin Mason: Butler for me.

Bob: Hello Justin, loved the stream final evening. Large image, How would you method alternative of keepers on this league? Simply deal with apparent values? Or additionally consider middling worth guys?    std roto, 15tm. Max 9 keepers allowed (draft day =27 rnds  405players drafted ) e.g. rnd 27 D. Rassmussen is sensible however there’s all the time middling gamers like M. Miller eleventh rnd…

Justin Mason: So I’m all the time on the lookout for the very best values however protecting in thoughts inflation on the draft desk. I believe one of many exceptions is with closers. As a result of there are a restricted variety of closers, I’ll take a lesser worth there with a view to be certain that I go away with guys I like on the place

Justin Mason: So I’d in all probability go together with Miller right here

Visitor: Rank them please… Birdsong, Brown, Bido, G. Holmes, and Luis Gil (shoulder) – all very low-cost keepers however I can solely maintain two as non have MiLB choices – We play in 20-team MLB very aggressive league with 26 man energetic rosters inside a 40-man roster and a 60 man MiLB (we play as near MLB guidelines as potential).

Justin Mason: I assume that’s Hunter Brown? If that’s the case, Brown, Holmes, Gil, Birdsong, Bido

Conor: Any probability that Vidal Brujan finally ends up being deep league/draft champion helpful this yr? Making an attempt to not be fooled by the spring coaching taking part in time/efficiency nevertheless it looks like there’s some alternative for PAs early on this crew.

Justin Mason: I believe now that Shaw is again taking part in, Brujan is a utility man and doubtless not tremendous viable.

RAGBRAI: Is a $9 Lux higher than a $1 Bart in an NL solely 11 crew 5×5? Thanks upfront.

Ken: Hello Justin. Ultimate keeper recommendation wanted between the next, with value : Albies or Semien (third rd), T. Hernandez (sixth), Ober (eighth), Imanaga (fifteenth) or Hunter Brown (twenty second). My different seven are Soto (1st), Machado (2nd), Ozuna (seventeenth), Ragans (twentieth), D. Williams (twenty first), deGrom (twenty third), O.Cruz (twenty sixth). Thanks!

Justin Mason: It’s between the pitchers for me. Love Ober and Imanaga at these costs, however Brown looks like the very best worth

Jesse: In a 5×5 (OBP as a substitute of AVG) 12-team, h2h league, are you able to rank these 5 guys?

Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Rafael Devers

I’ve acquired it Riley, Schwarber, Olson, Devers, Pete

Justin Mason: Schwarber, Riley, Olson, Alonso, Devers

Dodgers Blue: Any pitchers, assured NOT to start out the season within the majors, you’re rostering on the dream they get the decision rapidly and dominate via the EOY?

Justin Mason: Probably not. I are inclined to not roster these guys. Bubba Chandler is perhaps the one exception I can consider.

Curious George: Do you employ pc know-how in your drafts or prep sheets?   If it’s the later, what sort of data do you embrace on these sheets?

Justin Mason: I exploit Good Fantasy Baseball’s draft software program. Finest $17 you’ll be able to spend. Extremely suggest it. Be sure you purchase the Course of by Jeff Zimmerman as a complement.

Justin Mason: Drop him beneath Gil

Dodgers Blue: In a 12 crew, round what spherical would you even hassle to think about drafting one-dimension common solely guys?  The mathematics performs out that except you’re grabbing a couple of of them, nobody man – regardless of how good their common is – actually strikes the needle on the entire all that a lot.

Justin Mason: Perhaps within the again half of the draft if I used to be determined for common. That being stated, if I’m in that place, I’ve tousled alongside the way in which.

Jesse: In SVH, are you continue to in on the large closers and the necessity to get one early, or does it veer nearer to the old-timey “there’s all the time guys accessible?”

Justin Mason: On this format, I devalue all of the reduction pitching. You can also make it work later within the draft.

Ben-Jammin: I’m in a keeper factors league, making an attempt to resolve on my final couple arms. Who would you retain, all on the similar worth, for 2024 and past between deGrom, Alcantara, Gallen, Schwellenbach, and Jobe? I can decide three from this bunch. Weighing the seasoned vs the younger studs has been a problem. Anybody I don’t maintain will doubtless be gone by the point my decide comes up.

Justin Mason: Schwellenbach for me.

diadem: Will we see Endy  Rodriguez at 1b extra this yr?

Justin Mason: Perhaps a bit, however I don’t assume a ton.

Mark: What do you anticipate from Jobe this season? Suppose he cracks the opening day rotation?

Justin Mason: I believe he makes the rotation and is an excellent pitcher with ups and downs anticipated as a younger man. Well worth the gamble as a result of the value is inexpensive

diadem: How regarding is Steer’s shoulder harm?

Justin Mason: Tremendous regarding to me. I dropped his projection yesterday and it made him a detrimental worth participant in 12-team codecs.

Dodgers Blue: Two catcher league, how a lot does Drake Baldwin’s worth now leap on the information of Sean Murphy out to start out the yr?

Justin Mason: I believe loads. He ought to break camp with the crew and he could not give the job again.

Justin Mason: Sort of love that begin. I’d go Abrams within the third for the pace.

PJ: Would you commerce Alonso for Skenes in 5×5 10 crew roto?

Kevin: 5X5 Roto with QS as a substitute of wins and ok/9 as a substitute of Ok, who’re you protecting, Glasnow or Mason Miller?

JM: 14 crew,  6×6 H2H, J. Holliday, J. Caminero, O. Cruz, B. Doyle, L. Robert Jr, M. Busch, A. Volpe & L. Garcia Jr are my offensive gamers supporting Ok. Tucker & P. Alonso, have a killer Pitching employees, my query is, is the variance on these guys an excessive amount of to beat, ought to I commerce a few of my pitching depth (F. Peralta is my fifth starter) now and get extra offensive punch

Justin Mason: I’d completely commerce Peralta for some extra secure offense. I like a number of these guys however that may be a fairly dangerous base.

Ben-Jammin: How far is Alcantara transferring up your board given his spring performances? Pumping 99 with management has been spectacular. Classic Sandy

Justin Mason: Not for me. I do know that he has been a stud up to now however keep in mind how Robbie Ray seemed final yr coming off of TJ. Had the velo however the management and command have been nice one begin and non-existent the following. For a pitcher who gained’t get wins as a result of the Marlins are horrible who depends a lot on that command and management, it’s simply an excessive amount of danger for me.

Final Man In: I’ve 3 groups drafting concepts for you.

Hungry like a Wolf- the place I draft Jarren and Jhoan Duran.
The (Nearly) Jackson 5- draft contains Jacksons: Chourio, Merrill, Holliday and Jobe
The LowDown-  drafting Lowe: Brandon, Josh and Nate.

Hopefully good for fun.

Justin Mason: #2 has me rolling proper now. Level awarded!

Johan: The place are you on Matt McLain? The projections love him, he appears to have a superb deal with on 2B, is producing in spring, has a superb ballpark and lineup.  Is he undervalued at ~90 ADP?

Justin Mason: Scroll up. I simply bumped up his projection and posted it within the chat. I’m a purchaser now that he appears to be wholesome.

Dave: 12-team combined, keep-6 league; taking a look at a contest for my closing keeper between Kristian Campbell, Jared Jones, Royce Lewis, and Felix Bautista (all equally priced).  My different keepers are Skubal, Kirby, deGrom, Jobe, Yordan Alvarez.  What ought to I do?

Justin Mason: Lewis for me

Izzy: Do you ever play pc simulation video games like Strat?

Justin Mason: I don’t solely as a result of I’ve so little time now and I’m afraid that I’d get sucked into it an excessive amount of.

E: Freddie Freeman stats dipped a bit final yr. age associated decline or a a little bit of a bounceback candidate?

Justin Mason: I believe it was harm. The Dodgers have stated they are going to handle his ankle this yr so I lowered his projection over the weekend. In all probability not going to be a purchaser at his present ADP

smuckles: Justin! In a roto dynasty league. Can maintain 25. Do I maintain Joey Bart, or simply go into the draft and see what’s leftover at C?

Justin Mason: REally relies on the depth of league and format. Is it a 2-catcher league? what number of groups?

Invoice: 12 crew, partial keeper (as much as 6 gamers, $275 funds) public sale league, 11 x 11 classes. Chourio ($9), Merrill ($8), Ragans ($8), Schwellenbach ($4), and J. Jones ($2) locked in. Struggling between James Wooden ($4) and Robbie Ray ($4). Wooden very doubtless extra helpful in future, however Ray wholesome and strikeouts galore this yr (hopefully). Who would you retain?

Justin Mason: Wooden for me

PJ: How do you rank the next in 5×5 10 crew roto-Oldy Goldy, Mountcastle, Toglia and Vaughn?

Justin Mason: Goldy, Toglia, Mountcastle, Vaughn

Clay: 16 crew roto large rosters (26 starters, 14 bench, 40 minors) saves and holds separate classes. Who’re some deep league reduction pitchers who’ve good ratios, perhaps get some sneaky save possibilities

Justin Mason: Each Garcia’s are. Nimmo may very well be relying on depth of league

Rule of Thumb: What’s your ideas course of on what number of SP to roster given innings caps?  For instance, Ottoneu has 1,500 IP max throughout 5 SP and 5 RP energetic slots.  Historical past tells me I’ll get about 350 IP from my RP, leaving 1,150 for my starters.  Permitting for harm danger, the power to take a seat guys towards powerful matchups, and so on., what number of SPs do you wish to roster popping out of the public sale?  Personally, I shoot for 9-10 SP with a mixed 1,600 projected IP or so.  You?

Justin Mason: I actually don’t know sufficient about Ottoneu to reply this nicely. This can be a higher query for Chad. I hate innings maximums. I believe it advantages gamers who aren’t as energetic.

Justin Mason: That’s all of the questions within the queue. I began a bit late so I’ll maintain going in case you all have extra questions

Justin Mason: I don’t have a ton of religion, however the value is affordable sufficient that it’s definitely worth the gamble

Johnny: Watched your public sale final evening, thanks for streaming.  Doing a ten crew combined public sale, solely have accomplished 14 groups.  Would you counsel extra of stars & scrubs in a ten crew as faab pool will likely be larger?

Justin Mason: completely. Positively attempt to get some elite expertise. I went a bit too balanced final evening and was type of kicking myself once I noticed what was nonetheless accessible within the reserves. push up the costs on the highest guys as a result of there will likely be so many good $1 gamers on the finish

smuckles: Justin, Re: Bart. Ten groups, as soon as C

Visitor: Am I too late if I haven’t replied to your TGFBI satelite electronic mail but?

Justin Mason: No! I’m nonetheless taking signal ups for a couple of extra days!

Visitor: Keeper deadline arising. 12-team combined, normal 5 x 5 classes EXCEPT we’re utilizing SV+H, plus further classes OPS, Ok/9. Redraft league with as much as 5 keepers, every keeper means forfeiting a draft decide (1 keeper = no first-round decide, 2 keepers = no first or second-round decide, and so on.), so in case your man has an ADP over 60, you’re in all probability greatest off protecting him. You’re additionally allowed ONE prospect keeper that doesn’t rely towards the 5 common keepers. Juan Soto is a lock, after all, however issues are vast open behind him. My candidates for the opposite 4 slots are Freddie Freeman, Jackson Chorio, Logan Webb, Spencer Strider (whom I spent an IL slot on all final season to maintain), Christian Walker, Jackson Holliday, Dylan Crews, Randy Arozarena, and Matt McLain. For my prospect keeper alternative, I’ve Carson Williams and Samuel Basallo. Thanks!

Justin Mason: Chourio, McLain, Holliday, Freeman

Johnny: I additionally laughed if you find yourself speaking about gamers not being wholesome to take if you are smoking and ingesting pop 🙂

Justin Mason: Yeah, I’m not the bastion of well being

Justin Mason: at the least it was eating regimen soda

Boingboing: Each projection system besides ZiPS has deGrom with 20+ begins and 100+ IP.  He hasn’t attain both of these numbers since 2019 and he’s now turning 37.  What’s an inexpensive over/below on his innings?  60?

Justin Mason: I projected him for 135. No motive for them to child him however I believe now we have to mood expectations.

Johnny: Observe up on the ten crew reply.  For hitters for certain what about pitchers or s&s for each?

Justin Mason: sure, I’d go stars and scrubs for each.

Justin Mason: out of questions once more…

Brad: Is Snell definitely worth the value now that he’s on the Dodgers and Roberts will likely be consistently pulling him within the sixth inning earlier than he will get a QS? My league does QS. Wins is a lame stat.

Justin Mason: I don’t assume a number of Dodgers pitchers are definitely worth the value this yr contemplating how they defend them. six man rotation and a stacked bullpen has me pushing nearly all of them down

Colton: Completed a dynasty begin up draft final evening, want 4 guys to assign 5 yr contracts to. Witt, Merrill, Butler are in all probability taking the primary 3 of these. The final one if between Riley Greene, Jared Jones, Yamamoto, who would you give it to?

Justin Mason: Yamamoto and Jones

ML: I’ve Alejandro Kirk as my #1 catcher and I would like a backup to get to ~550-600 PA. Who do you like between Victor Caratini and Gary Sanchez?

Dennis: Your ideas on how Robbie Ray will play out this yr.

Justin Mason: I believe we are going to get a number of strikeouts and if he can replenish the zone the way in which he was doing previous to the harm, he may very well be an enormous discount

Visitor: 10 crew H2H keeper, $63 wage cap.  Would you commerce Soto (6), Strider (3), and Ok.Campbell (1) for Elly (2)?

PJ: Please rank these outfielders in roto-Ward, Nimmo, PCA, O’Neill, Toglia.

Justin Mason: Ward, Toglia, O’Neil, Nimmo, PCA

Chris: ATC projection for Taylor Ward: too scorching or about proper?

Justin Mason: too scorching for me

ML: assume Flaherty can repeat final yr’s efficiency?

Justin Mason: If he’s wholesome, I believe he can

Rule of Thumb: Is there an inventory to your positional ranks?  I’m solely seeing SS and C in your FG creator web page.

Justin Mason: They will be accessible on the sleeper and the bust patreon

Wooden: 12 man OBP league, 1b is Goldy, SS is Bichette, Util is Royce. Do I decide up Arraez, Correa or CES as my bench bat?

Visitor: Which potential of those three earns a rotation spot and shines vibrant?

Visitor: Shawver, Roupp or Boyle?

Visitor: Finest keeper for a $1?Flaherty, Jobe, or Max Meyer

Jay: In a keeper league the place we will stash TJ’s on the roster for late rounders the next yr. For example, I’ve a twenty fourth spherical deGrom this yr due to that. Any guys that had TJ final yr you assume can be price holding as an IL stash all yr? Is Bieber the closest factor?

Justin Mason: Eury Perez for me

Justin Mason: I simply don’t know if the hit software goes to be sufficient to make it work on the large leagues, however man is there a number of energy.

PJ: Ideas on woodruff comeback this season?

Justin Mason: I hope he’s profitable as a result of I like watching him pitch, however I gained’t be drafting him wherever.

Justin Mason: Alright, we’re all out of questions once more so I’ll wrap up. please observe me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, fb, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I’m doing common podcasts on the FWFB podcast in addition to three episodes every week for the Sleeper and the Bust so positively ensure you are subscribed there as nicely!