Jake Mailhot’s 2025 Tiered Ottoneu Rankings: Third Base

Jake Mailhot’s Ottoneu Place Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OFChad Younger’s Ottoneu Place Rankings: C | 1B | MI | 3B | OF

You’ll find the entire details about the format and methodology in Chad’s introduction to those rankings. I’ve matched his tiers in order that it’s simple to match throughout rankings and to offer a standard language to debate these rankings.

Listed here are few extra notes about my course of:

Projected factors. I’ve been constructing my very own homebrewed projections for the previous decade plus, ever since I began taking part in Ottoneu, they usually kind the idea for the rankings beneath. They’re nothing overly sophisticated; primarily only a MARCEL-esque projection utilizing three years of historic knowledge filtered via a tough getting old curve and adjusted for the present run atmosphere. I additionally embody a set of three public projection programs (ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA) to offer some further context. That offers every participant six knowledge sources that kind their projection. Presently, the projections beneath solely embody Steamer and the ZiPS25 projections that have been posted final 12 months, not the up to date 2025 projections that Dan Szymborski is presently rolling out.
P/G vs P/PA. Factors per sport performed is the gold commonplace by which you need to be evaluating gamers in Ottoneu. I gained’t argue with that. That measure does have some drawbacks, significantly for gamers who pinch hit, pinch run, or are used as defensive substitutions typically. These restricted appearances can skew a participant’s P/G decrease than what they’re producing once they’re getting three or 4 plate appearances once they begin a sport. To supply a little bit extra context for these sorts of gamers, I’ve additionally included factors per plate look beneath. That measure ought to give us a greater concept of how a participant produces irrespective of how he’s utilized by his staff.

Due to the additions of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jazz Chisholm Jr., third base is feeling a little bit deeper this 12 months than it has within the current previous.

Somewhat than give notes on each participant like Chad, I’ll give my normal ideas on every tier beneath and focus on the outlier gamers I like roughly than his rankings. Let’s get into it.

I perceive Chad’s issues about Devers’ shoulder, however his monitor document of manufacturing speaks for itself and justifies the premium you’ll pay over Riley. Devers managed to provide a 147 wRC+ via August together with his balky shoulder and solely actually broke down in September. It’s doable the shoulder will proceed to be a difficulty this 12 months, however it’s simply as doubtless that an offseason of relaxation may need allowed the joint to heal. I’m positive taking that danger based mostly on his historical past.

I like Chisholm, however not as a lot as Chad does, and I believe there’s some Yankees-fueled helium that’s inflating his perceived worth. Sure, he elevated his onerous hit fee from 37.1% with the Marlins to 48.5% in New York however his barrel fee dropped by greater than three factors. Regardless of hitting fewer barrelled batted balls, almost 1 / 4 of the fly balls he hit as a Yankee left the park, an unsustainable house run fee that fueled loads of his manufacturing in New York.

Lewis couldn’t replicate the scorching sizzling breakout he loved in 2023 final 12 months. A few of these struggles have been out of his management — his BABIP fell by 100 factors — however he additionally misplaced a little bit of contact high quality on his batted balls and his 21.1% house run fee was in all probability all the time a little bit unstable. I anticipate higher issues from him in 2025, however there’s all the time the looming damage issues and I’m a bit apprehensive about how his physique goes to carry up if the Twins really resolve to maneuver him to second base like they’ve talked about this offseason.

I initially had Suárez and Arenado a tier larger however they each have fairly large query marks surrounding them. For the previous, it’s his streaky efficiency that offers me pause. Sure, Suárez was probably the greatest hitters in baseball through the second half of the season final 12 months, however his first half was atrocious and it’s onerous to inform which model of him you’re going to get. For Arenado, the questions on the place he’ll ultimately find yourself after the Cardinals inevitably commerce him this offseason give me some pause.