We’re about 40% by means of the season. We are able to begin to have extra confidence in sure stats. They’re not fluctuating wildly with every recreation. There could also be alternatives in your leagues to choose up gamers off of waivers with sudden, however reputable scorching begins. You might also have the ability to commerce advantageously by taking a look at underlying numbers which might be stabilizing.
Andrew Abbott, SP, Cincinnati Reds
Andrew Abbott is a 26-year-old LH SP in his third MLB season. Previous to 2025, he had 247.1 IP, a 3.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 22.4% Okay%, and 9.2% BB%. In 53.1 IP this yr he has a 2.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 27.6% Okay%, and eight.9% BB% (stats as of 6/8/25). Everyone knows ERA is unpredictable, however that WHIP and Okay% stand out from his earlier seasons. Is he doing something in a different way to warrant these improved outcomes?
Most notable concerning the cutter isn’t the .924 wOBA. It’s that there are cutters with worse wOBAs. In any case, he barely throws it so Abbott is known as a 4-pitch man. He throws his four-seamer almost half the time and it has been his best pitch. PLV and Stuff+ each grade it as under common. Its metrics are all middling, at finest, with below-average velocity and extension with common motion. It’s similar to 2023 and 2024. If something, it’s barely worse.
The general utilization of all of his pitches has remained remarkably related all through his profession. In truth, not a lot has modified about something that he does.
Verdict: Perhaps presumably legit? On a current episode of Charges and Barrels Eno Sarris and Trevor Might tried to determine Abbott’s success. They weren’t assured of their explanations. If they will’t determine it out, what hope do I’ve? Their finest guess was that his pitches are simply bizarre sufficient to confuse hitters. However that doesn’t clarify his career-best season this yr. You’d count on his uniqueness to put on off. The most effective I can do is take his profession averages and provides barely extra weight to this yr as a result of it’s the latest. Utilizing that rationale, going ahead I’d count on a 3.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 25% Okay%, and 9% BB%. That’s helpful in most leagues.
Jeremy Peña, SS, Houston Astros
In simply his 4th MLB season the 27-year-old Jeremy Peña has had fairly the up-and-down profession. After posting a stable 102 wRC+ in 558 PA within the 2022 common season he had a spectacular 187 wRC+ that postseason. He adopted that up in 2023-2024 with 1,284 PA, a .265/.316/.388 triple slash and 98 wRC+. In 277 PA this yr he has a .316/.373/.480 slash and 144 wRC+. That’s good for twentieth amongst certified hitters. His elevated slugging is the first driver behind his nice numbers. It’s 81 factors larger than the remainder of his profession. What’s behind this energy surge?
In 2024 Peña’s Energy metric was 92 and this yr it’s 96. Not a lot distinction there. His Bat Pace and Max EV are additionally comparable. He has elevated his Barrel% from 5.4% final yr to 7.0% this yr. Nevertheless, I don’t suppose that’s sufficient of an enchancment to elucidate his significantly improved energy manufacturing. Final yr his Pull Air% was under common at 15.2% and this yr it’s as much as an above-average 19.2%. He’s additionally improved his Preferrred Assault Angle from a stable 55.5% (league common is 50.9%) to an excellent 62.5%.
Verdict: Considerably Legit. Peña has actually improved his energy metrics, however solely marginally so. I believe he’s due for some regression due to this. He ought to stay a really stable possibility at SS, presumably within the midst of a profession yr, however I merely don’t absolutely purchase his .480 SLG and 144 wRC+.
Brendan Donovan, 2B/SS/OF, St. Louis Cardinals
I’ve all the time felt like Donovan doesn’t get the respect he deserves. In 1,491 PA coming into this yr, he had a .280/.364/.407 slash and 119 wRC+. That’s good for anybody after all and particularly somebody that gives as a lot defensive flexibility as Donovan. Whereas he has not been requested to be fairly as various as in earlier seasons, he has had a implausible season on the plate. In 269 PA he has a .317/.384/.450 slash and 138 wRC+.
His general Course of+ has actually improved, however what particularly is driving it?
Whereas dropping extra lately there was an enormous bounce in his Energy in mid-August final yr that carried over into 2025 that’s propping up his general numbers. Let’s see if we are able to spot something that occurred round mid-August 2024.
Supply: FanGraphs
Verdict: Not Legit. Sadly, Donovan’s success has been instantly tied to a sudden uptick in Line Drive%. LD% is notoriously noisy. As quickly because it began to say no this yr so did his general manufacturing. He ought to stay a wonderful UT participant with a excessive AVG and OBP, however he merely doesn’t possess the Bat Pace or energy to keep up such a excessive wRC+. Anticipate career-norms going ahead.
Images by Icon Sportswire | Tailored by Doug Carlin (@Bdougals on Twitter)
