Whereas the Mets and Braves are within the midst of the second sport of a doubleheader as I sort this, the American League stats are within the books. So though many fantasy leagues nonetheless haven’t been determined but, I’ve taken house my third total Tout Wars league and second AL Tout Wars league championship. Take a look at the ultimate standings:
Remind your self of my public sale expertise and the league modifications made this yr, when you’re so inclined.
It was a fairly loopy season. From coping with damage after damage early on and pondering my season was already over as I languished close to the underside, to surging towards the highest of the standings and remaining there till the very finish. Any win is a thrill in opposition to high competitors, but it surely’s all the time extra thrilling when it’s a rags to riches sort trajectory throughout the yr. Let’s start by reviewing the roster I left the public sale with and the tip of season greenback values every of these gamers earned.
2024 AL-Solely Tout Wars Staff
*FanGraphs public sale calculator didn’t embrace this participant**Values taken from the NL-Solely calculator, which may differ from the worth generated in an AL-Solely league that’s allowed to maintain gamers traded to the opposite league (like in Tout Wars)
In yellow, I highlighted the EoS $ Worth if the participant earned a significant revenue over my price. In crimson, I highlighted the EoS $ Worth if the participant realized a significant loss in comparison with my price.
Total, the public sale calculator suggests I earned a small revenue from the gamers I purchased on the public sale, incomes a complete of 268 models if I began that actual squad all yr. After all, nobody begins the identical gamers they purchased on the public sale or drafted all season lengthy except you’re in a draft and maintain league. I earned significant revenue from 9 gamers and realized a significant loss on seven.
The revenue I made on the inexperienced names was barely increased than the loss I took on the crimson names, and that assumes that each Alex Lange and Shane Bieber earned precisely $0 since their {dollars} earned aren’t accessible from the calculator. The EoS $ worth additionally assumes I might have performed Ryan Noda all season lengthy, which clearly would by no means occur since he was demoted to the minors at the start of Could, at which level I changed him. So, it’s not simple to really decide the standard of 1’s public sale, however total, this train suggests I made a small revenue. After all, you probably wouldn’t assume such a small revenue can be created from the profitable group!
I made a significant revenue on 5 hitters, however one identify is obvious — Brent Rooker. Enjoying for his fourth group in three seasons, he loved a mini breakout in 2023 by swatting 30 homers and posting a stable .348 wOBA. However a excessive strikeout and age (he was already 28 that yr) made him a danger. It was clear that nobody actually wished to tackle such a danger, particularly on a foul offense in a pitcher pleasant park, so I ended up with him for simply 9 public sale models. He truly slumped early on and began sitting sometimes, however he finally busted out of his stoop and went on to a real full season breakout.
Nevertheless, I didn’t truly get to take pleasure in all the great occasions. In mid-late July, it was fairly clear that I used to be operating a surplus of house runs and RBI. Then again, I desperately wanted stolen bases, as I used to be sitting towards the underside of the class standings. I figured given the place my roster at present stood that it made all of the sense on this planet to look into buying and selling an influence bat for velocity. So I researched potential participant targets together with good group matches that may be keen to commerce away velocity for energy. I landed on longtime leaguemate and former FanGraphs author Jason Collette, who sat dandy in first place in steals, however towards the underside in house runs. Excellent!
Serving to propel his stolen base complete was David Hamilton, which turned my prime goal. I used to be pretty sure that I wouldn’t lose something in house runs and RBIs by changing an influence bat with Hamilton, however may doubtlessly surge towards the highest of the stolen base class. After some negotiations and rejected affords, we lastly settled on a commerce:
I commerce: Brent Rooker & Drew WatersJason trades: David Hamilton & Richie Palacios
Holy guacamole, what a completely horrible commerce that turned out to be! Hamilton swiped simply eight bases earlier than getting damage towards the tip of August and lacking the rest of the season. I requested for Palacios as a “throw-in” as I preferred his OBP and talent to plug in for present accidents, whereas additionally rising my stolen base upside. Naturally, he acquired damage after actually only a week on my group, however did steal 4 bases as a parting present. Then again, Rooker did every little thing Jason may have ever dreamed of.
Fortunately, I appropriately calculated my house run and RBI potential, as a result of even with out Rooker, I handily took first within the classes. And regardless of the duo of Hamilton and Palacios swiping simply 12 luggage for me, the remainder of my group went on a steals binge, vaulting me as much as second within the class.
It’s a type of uncommon occasions the place an terrible commerce didn’t find yourself making a distinction in any respect. That stated, I do marvel if I ought to have focused one other participant or pair of gamers that might have delivered extra total worth, however I suppose that’s moot at this level. Tout Wars is a notoriously powerful group of leagues to commerce in — there have been solely 5 made in ours this yr.
4 of the 9 pitchers I received at public sale delivered a significant revenue. Two of these names — Bryce Miller and Jack Flaherty — I advised you about in my “The Projections Are Unsuitable! 6 Beginning Pitcher Targets + Bonus Hitter Sleeper” article. I additionally highlighted Shane Bieber, however after two dominating begins, he acquired damage, in the end leading to TJ surgical procedure.
In that put up, I talked up Miller’s new splitter. He ended up throwing the pitch 17.1% of the time, and it proved incredible. He allowed only a .173 wOBA and generated a 15.1% SwStk%, the very best of any of his pitches. For Flaherty, I famous that his fastball velocity had rebounded throughout Spring Coaching, however alas, that didn’t final and he ended up averaging a velocity mark proper consistent with his current previous. Regardless of the steady velocity, his slider and knuckle curve had been incredible, producing a mid-teen SwStk% and 20% mark, respectively, whereas his strike share was his highest since 2019. Merely getting his management again was an enormous deal.
It wasn’t all rainbows and unicorns although, as I suffered from quite a few losses as effectively. Josh Jung’s season was marred by damage, whereas Noda, talked about earlier, was demoted to the minors after a poor first month.
The craziest factor is my two highest price hitters, and the one two that price me greater than 14 models, each had been majors disappointments this yr! Randy Arozarena did his ordinary 20/20, however a weak supporting solid hampered his runs scored and RBI totals, whereas his OBP fell, thanks partially to his first profession sub-.300 BABIP. Luis Robert Jr. was a real bust, and one which was fairly surprising on the age of 26. Battling accidents and enjoying on one of many worst groups in baseball historical past, his energy collapsed, and his strikeout fee spiked above 30% for a profession worst, pushing his OBP beneath .300 for the primary time.
On the pitching facet, it was a poor resolution to pay 23 models for Kevin Gausman, who handled shoulder points throughout the Spring and was by no means proper all season. On the level within the public sale, all the opposite high flight pitchers, together with the following tier, had been going for effectively above my worth, so I risked rostering Gausman at what I believed was truly a slight low cost, hoping his shoulder points proved to be a non-issue. Not solely was Gausman’s common velocity down for the yr, however his splitter’s SwStk% completed on the lowest mark of his profession, and the primary time it fell beneath 20% (to simply 16%).
So when you’re following, you understand that I spent greater than 20 models on simply three gamers, and all three of them had been main disappointments!
It was fairly clear popping out of the public sale that saves may be a battle…or not. It turned out to be the previous, as Alex Lange was terrible and misplaced his nearer job after saving simply two video games, whereas Michael Kopech closed for a group that hardly received any video games, although nonetheless earned me a revenue.
As you possibly can see from my reserve picks, they contributed nothing. I used to be optimistic about Casey Mize, and he was even included in my aforementioned “The Projections Are Unsuitable!” article, however even with two extra miles per hour of velocity, his strikeout fee was weak, and completed even decrease than his 2021 season.
Left’s now shift to in-season pickups. First, it’s necessary to notice that I don’t sometimes spend an entire lot of my FAAB earlier than the commerce deadline once we get NL gamers crossing over to the AL and there’s a bidding bonanza. I don’t deliberately save my FAAB with a view to reel within the huge fish at stated deadline, I simply hardly ever discover a distinction maker in free company that I’m keen to make a FAAB splash on. This situation occurred once more this yr, as I entered the commerce deadline with probably the most FAAB, giving me the selection of any league switcher.
That alternative turned out to be Jazz Chisholm Jr., who I spent the vast majority of my FAAB stack on and he delivered every little thing I had hoped for, even contemplating he missed a while to damage.
The opposite productive FAAB acquisition I made was Tyler Soderstrom. I actually lucked out on the timing right here, as I acquired him in early Could for under 2 models when he was nonetheless within the minors, most likely as an damage substitute as I figured speculating on him and getting zeroes for the week was higher than choosing up a stopgap who solely performs half the week. Positive sufficient, he was recalled two days later, which was surprising. I hadn’t learn any whispers of an imminent callup, I merely seen he was hitting effectively in Triple-A, the Athletics offense stunk, and figured it could be prudent for the group to get him to the Bigs. He solely accrued 169 ABs for me on account of damage, however hit for good energy throughout his time within the lineup.
Aside from these two, there have been no different FAAB acquisitions of observe.
In the end, what actually labored right here is grinding out comparatively smaller earnings on quite a few excessive single to low double digit price hitters and getting fortunate on an enormous hit like Rooker. Then constructing a less expensive pitching employees than most with younger breakout candidates, and paying explicit consideration to Spring Coaching for clues on who these names may be.
