Sunday morning, at 7 am (which felt like 6 after springing ahead), I sat down at my laptop, began the public sale for Ottoneu league 1199 and instantly dropped $88 on Juan Soto. Spending $88 on one participant isn’t one thing I’d usually do and (as a lot as I want to) I can’t blame the early hour. When prepping for the draft a few days earlier, I had put $90 as a goal worth for Soto…after which upped it to $95. $88 wasn’t me panicking, sleep-bidding, or simply going all out to get my man – it was very a lot the plan. And it’s all as a result of OF has turn out to be so deep that it’s shallow.
That sounds non-sensical and possibly it’s, actually, non-sensical, however it’s a sample I’ve observed in all of my drafts this spring.
I don’t do many re-draft leagues, however I’m doing one this yr and I did a mock draft for a redraft league within the winter and it has stood out to me how deep OF feels. There are guys going Tenth-Twentieth amongst OF that I’m completely satisfied to have as my finest OF. There are guys going exterior the highest 50 OF that I actually like. All through drafts, I’ve discovered I can wait and get guys I like later.
However then I get into an Ottoneu public sale or a keeper league draft in yr 2+ of a league and the OF scenario feels dire. That is what occurred on Sunday, the place I wanted top-end OF expertise and my selections had been Juan Soto, Seiya Suzuki, Luis Robert Jr., or Brandon Nimmo. It solely received worse from there.
And so I paid as much as get Soto.
So what provides? Why is OF so deep in redraft and so shallow in keeper codecs? Clearly the keepers are the why, however usually talking if a place is deep, it’s deep and whether it is shallow, it’s shallow. That is true at shortstop (there are loads in redraft and even in keeper leagues I’ve no concern getting one after I want one) and at catcher (barren all over the place), however not outfield.
Let’s have a look at final years prime scoring OF by whole FanGraphs Factors:
Aaron Decide – excessive priced, however did what we needed after which some and might be being stored most locations
Juan Soto – similar as Decide
Yordan Alvarez – similar as Decide and Soto
Jarren Duran – breakout participant who vastly outperformed his wage and was possible stored most locations
Brent Rooker – was a breakout the yr earlier than however nonetheless technique to cheap to be minimize most locations
Kyle Schwarber – Falls into the Decide/Soto/Alvarez class however is often rather a lot cheaper than these three, too
Jurickson Profar – one other breakout
Teoscar Hernandez – not precisely a breakout, however noticed a giant wage correction after 2023, so he was largely a keeper this yr
Anthony Santander – put up his finest season so his worth is probably going decrease than his worth
Jackson Merrill broke out, Riley Greene remains to be low-cost, Corbin Carroll rebounded, Brenton Doyle broke out, Jackson Chourio broke out.
I’m going to cease there however the listing goes on and on. The OF bats that made the highest tier on the place so deep had been mainly all keepers in lots of leagues. And this continues down the listing. A few of my favourite mid-to-low-tier targets – Matt Wallner, Tyler O’Neill, Parker Meadows, Heliot Ramos, amongst others – are low-price gamers already possible rostered by managers who like and deliberate to maintain them.
Then have a look at essentially the most disappointing OF in 2024 – Fernando Tatis Jr. missed time, struggled, however then rebounded late and numerous managers (myself included) are in on him for a giant 2025. Kyle Tucker missed a ton of time – presumably sufficient that he was minimize and re-auctioned final yr, reducing his wage – however I don’t suppose individuals’s expectations for him are lowered. Christian Yelich misplaced the tip of the yr to harm, which meant there was time for him to be minimize and re-auctioned at a keeper worth.
Principally, each class of OF that makes me excited concerning the place total is stuffed with guys who had been in all probability keepers.
And that’s what I’ve seen in my leagues. I began public sale season considering OF can be among the many best positions to fill, as a result of there are such a lot of names I like, however each public sale I put together for, I discover the depth I anticipated simply isn’t there.
So I’ve modified my tune on OF. In my newer auctions, I’ve set excessive costs for my OF targets and tried to make sure my finances allowed me to react to the market. As a result of, at the least in my leagues, the marketplace for OF displays the shortage of depth – everyone seems to be paying excessive costs to get their guys and there aren’t that many guys accessible to go get.
Plan accordingly – anticipate massive costs for OF, even your sleeper and late-auction flyers – and be able to pay up should you need assistance at that place.
