How is the 2024 Draft Class Performing so Far?

One other draft cycle has come and gone, and lots of the picks from this previous summer time’s draft class have begun their skilled profession. Previous to the draft, our workforce labored on an inventory of the highest 15 hitters that will be out there, which will be discovered right here. Right now, we’ll be checking in on a few of the collegiate bats that we highlighted in that article which were competing within the minor leagues. Sadly, we don’t have an excessive amount of to go off of when it comes to batted ball information for almost all of those guys, however they’ve performed sufficient video games to make a few of these developments statistically vital. 

Travis Bazzana, Guardians, A+

The primary general choose has had a reasonably profitable transition into professional ball, although he has struggled a bit. In A+, he’s presently hitting .238 with a .765 OPS. He’s posting a .340 wOBA, which is a tick above common for the extent. He’s nonetheless posting the identical spectacular contact numbers that he posted all through his time at Oregon State, however he’s being a bit extra passive on the plate, solely swinging the bat 38.4% of the time on pitches typically and beneath 60% on pitches throughout the strike zone. The Guardians are greater than seemingly making a aware choice to work with Bazzana and faucet into his plus pitch recognition and swing choices. With the success that the massive league membership is having, they’re in no rush to fast-track him to the majors, and now is a good time to take a step again and work on the strategy throughout his first season of professional ball. Anticipate the swing choices to grow to be extra aggressive at the start of subsequent yr, which ought to permit his uncooked energy to face out a bit extra. The bat to ball abilities have remained constant in the course of the change to professional ball, highlighted by his 81.4 zCon% and absurd 71.4% oCon%. There’s clearly nonetheless some growth and aggressiveness that should ramp up for him, however Bazzana has confirmed himself succesful and deserving of the primary general choose.

Charlie Condon, Rockies, A+

Charlie Condon had a monstrous yr on the College of Georgia in 2024, however his efficiency to date in professional ball has left a lot to be desired. On the 100 at-bat mark in A+, Condon is hitting .180 with one house run and a measly .518 OPS. A lot of this has to do with some critical swing and miss points that increase some fairly vibrant yellow (for now) flags about his means to persistently deal with superior pitching. He’s whiffing at over a 3rd of the pitches that he sees, his oCon% is 25.9, and he’s posting a 34:4 Ok/BB ratio. His zCon% can also be a bit alarming at 73.5%. To place this into comparability, that quantity was 89.6% throughout his collegiate season. A few of these underlying points may very well be attributed to fatigue. He had a protracted collegiate season and never a lot of a break previous to starting his skilled profession. However, within the video that I’ve seen, he appears to be like pretty uncomfortable within the field and has been unable to persistently get the ball within the air, a difficulty that confirmed up minorly at UGA that I raised some slight issues about within the article talked about above. Hopefully for Condon and the Rockies, the struggles will enhance after his first skilled offseason of growth and a little bit of relaxation. The uncooked energy continues to be, clearly, extremely enticing, however sadly, not very efficient if he isn’t going to place the ball in play within the air. 

JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals, A

Thankfully, we do have Statcast information on Wetherholt for his time in A ball to date. By means of 105 at bats, Wetherholt is slashing .295/.405/.400 with 2 house runs and a .361 wOBA. Actually the entire underlying metrics on him look good as properly. He’s not chasing a ton, he’s displaying off the spectacular bat-to-ball skills persistently, and he’s proven above-average uncooked energy, evident by the 105.3 ninetieth% EV and 109.2 max EV. He’s strolling at a better price than he’s hanging out, and he’s being selective together with his swing choices. This locations him in benefit counts and permits him to make use of each his pure, superior hit device and his above-average energy to punish opposing pitchers. Pitchers have struggled to search out a great way to assault him on the plate, as he has posted actually stable numbers towards all kinds of pitches. Towards breaking balls, he’s posting an absurd .674 xwOBACON (primarily measures how a lot injury he’s anticipated to provide when he does make contact), although his whiff charges on these pitches is hovering proper round 30%. He produces related numbers towards fastballs, and doesn’t swing and miss at them a ton, posting a 17.1% whiff price. Offspeed pitches, comparable to changeups, stands out as the solution to assault him as he doesn’t produce as a lot injury, however even towards these he’s solely swinging and lacking 13.3% of the time. Wetherholt is a nightmare matchup for pitchers in A-ball presently, and he’s displaying why he was touted as the most effective prospect within the class earlier than his hamstring harm. 

Jac Caglianone, Royals, A+

Caglianone has been pretty spectacular initially of his skilled profession. By means of 115 at-bats, he’s slashing .241/.302/.388 with 2 house runs and a .298 wOBA. The manufacturing and common energy numbers could appear a bit down, however that is pure as one enters skilled baseball. The ability continues to be very a lot there, and can start to indicate up as he turns into acclimated to skilled pitching. He’s displaying related aggressiveness to what he confirmed at Florida this previous yr, however the whiff charges don’t look that unhealthy as they’re sitting at 26.4% presently. He’s making contact within the zone persistently, proven by the 82.8% zCon price, however the chase is presently sitting at 45.6%, which is definitely elevated from the 38% clip that he posted throughout his season at Florida. That is, considerably, mitigated by his means to cowl outdoors of the zone together with his giant body and lengthy bat path. He’s making contact on pitches out of the zone 61.3% of the time, which is a stable quantity however nonetheless not sufficient to utterly overcome the chase points. I’d like to see him swing much less as he winds up the season. This may permit him to, hopefully, develop a greater really feel for the strike zone and assist tame his strategy a bit.

Nick Kurtz, Athletics, AA

Kurtz has solely performed in 12 skilled baseball video games, however after every week of A ball video games the place he hit .400 with 4 house runs, he’s been promoted to AA. Going into the draft, I felt as if Kurtz’s mature strategy, above-average bat-to-ball abilities, and plus energy would translate shortly to professional ball, and he has had about as seamless of a transition as one can have. There isn’t sufficient information to actually establish any significant developments but, however his sub 20% whiff price to date is definitely promising. He hasn’t slugged a lot in his 5 video games on the AA degree, however once more, it’s far too early to be involved about that reality. 

James Tibbs III, Giants, A+

By means of 108 at-bats, Tibbs is slashing .241/.293/.343 with 2 house runs and 5 doubles. Whereas it’s nonetheless early, Tibbs has run into some actual points on the plate. He presently has a 36:8 Ok/BB ratio, is posting a whiff price just below 33%, and has a measly 71.2 zCon%. On the intense aspect, he’s not increasing the zone a lot, however the lack of ability to stroll coupled with the swing and miss points has me pretty involved for the time being. He’s additionally not impacting the baseball and producing injury actually in any respect as highlighted by his .208 wOBA, which is way under common. This creates a nasty three-headed beast of underlying yellow/pink flags to date in professional ball which can be troubling, nevertheless, I’m not all the best way out on him, as we’ve seen him be a constant performer in any respect ranges. The adjustment to professional ball is a large adjustment, and a full offseason ought to permit him and the Giants to actually work on a few of these points and hopefully get again to the consistency that he confirmed in his collegiate profession. 

Smith has been, maybe, the most effective and most constant performer from this draft class to date. By means of 96 at-bats, he’s slashing .323/.412/.635 with 7 house runs. The swings have regarded extraordinarily snug, assured, and explosive. He’s producing at a excessive degree, proven by his .392 wOBA, which is comfortably above-average. Sadly, there’s no batted ball information out there on him but, however the underlying metrics look extremely promising as properly. He’s solely swinging and lacking simply over 20% of the time and is posting a 87.1 zCon%, each good indicators and above-average. Nevertheless, he does nonetheless have a little bit of a difficulty with increasing the zone, swinging outdoors of the zone at a 33.6% price. This hasn’t appeared to sluggish him down but, however it has restricted his stroll numbers and can solely proceed to be uncovered increasingly more as he progresses up in professional ball. 

Christian Moore, Angels, AA

As is typical of the Los Angeles Angels, Moore was the primary participant taken within the 2024 draft to succeed in AA, although it wasn’t with out benefit. In 2 video games in A ball, Moore collected 6 hits, together with 2 doubles and a house run. His success has continued in AA for essentially the most half, the place he’s slashing .302/.355/.512 with 5 house runs in 86 at-bats. There’s a non-zero likelihood that he will get some at-bats with the massive league membership this season, however that’s only a product of the group and their philosophies. Below the hood, I do have some issues about Moore and his swing and miss points. He’s presently posting a 37.6 whiff% in AA to associate with a 30% strikeout price and a 64.4 zCon%. He’s additionally increasing the zone typically, posting a 39.4 chase%. Despite the fact that he’s producing, these metrics do concern me significantly. The pitching is simply going to proceed to enhance as he strikes up the ranks, and these points will have to be resolved or no less than mitigated earlier than he’s able to contribute at a high-level within the massive leagues.