How is the 2023 #1 Draft Pick Performing in the Majors?

For those who’ve saved up with baseball media not too long ago you’ve most certainly seen Paul Skenes’ identify loads. Paul Skenes was the #1 general decide within the 2023 MLB draft out of LSU. He was a giant a part of LSU’s success in 2023, the place they ended up successful the Faculty World Collection. Skenes pitched solely 5 video games in 2023 within the minors and 7 video games in 2024 earlier than being known as as much as the present. He made his debut on Could 11, 2024, putting out seven batters and touching 100 MPH along with his fastball 17 instances. Fairly good for a rookie making his debut proper? With the Pirates being second to final of their division, Paul Skenes has been a vibrant spot for the Pirates this season with promise that he generally is a long-term starter for them within the coming years. With that being stated, let’s check out how Skenes has carried out thus far since being known as as much as the majors. 

Stats (From 5/11-6/25): IP: 46.1, Ok%: 33.7%, BB%: 4.4%, Barrel%: 6.3%, ERA: 2.14,  WHIP: 0.99, pCRA: 2.95

Skenes has had success since getting into the league and that’s principally as a result of his means to strike batters out. Skenes ranks within the prime 5% of the league in Ok% and that’s due to his high-velocity fastball and his slider. He will get probably the most strikeouts with these pitches,  with each having 40%+ Ok%. Skenes’ second most used pitch is his splitter (Baseball Savant says split-finger), producing a 34.2 CSW%. He doesn’t use this pitch a lot in two-strike conditions, however this pitch is his least hit pitch, with opponents solely having a .140 batting common towards it and a .172 wOBA. These stats are each nicely under the league common for opposing batters, making this considered one of Skenes’ greatest pitches.  Skenes does have a considerably excessive common exit velocity of 92 MPH, however as a result of his above-average CSW%, he can afford to surrender some tougher contact. With time, Skenes ought to count on to decrease his exit velocity as soon as he continues to pitch and learns extra as he’s only a rookie and has solely 8 video games underneath his belt. Let’s dive into the pitches I discussed above and see how they’re performing for Skenes.  

Since getting into the league Paul Skenes has wowed individuals along with his fastball, averaging 99.3 MPH with it. Skenes makes use of his fastball probably the most out of his five-pitch arsenal, utilizing it 39.6% of the time. He makes use of it 50.9% in two-strike conditions which is nicely above his split-finger which he makes use of solely 19.3% of the time in two-strike conditions. He’s generated the vast majority of his strikeouts with this pitch as nicely, with a 40.5 Ok%. Skenes’ fastball doesn’t get hit all that nicely, with opponents solely averaging a .313 wOBA (just under the MLB common). His fastball can also be squared up about 3% lower than the MLB common (38%).  Skenes kilos the higher and out of doors components of the zone with this pitch. His vertical strategy angle (VAA) of -4.9 aids in him reaching the highest of the zone. Skenes is ready to find his fastball within the strike zone 65.2% of the time making this his best pitch. His fastball is a large a part of his Ok% being so excessive. 

As talked about earlier, Skenes’ least hit pitch is his splitter. He doesn’t use this pitch a lot in two-strike conditions, however nonetheless will get 27.4% Ok% when he does use it. As a consequence of its -6.9 VAA, Skenes is ready to find this pitch down within the zone totally on the internal half of the plate. Skenes is ready to generate numerous swings with this pitch posting a 56.8% swing% and getting a whiff on 34.6% of these swings. Probably the most spectacular factor about his splitter is how he can preserve runners off the basepaths with it. As talked about earlier than, opposing batters are solely posting a .172 wOBA towards this pitch that means that opposing hitters have a really exhausting time reaching base towards this pitch. Skenes does permit a good quantity of exhausting contact with this pitch, however due to his whiff price, he can permit for extra exhausting contact since this pitch isn’t hit as usually. Seeing as how Skenes could be very efficient at conserving runners off the basepaths, he doesn’t surrender many runs, posting a decent 2.14 ERA. 

There’s all the time room for enchancment it doesn’t matter what the case could also be, and for Paul Skenes the necessity for enchancment occurs to be along with his slider. Skenes targets the skin of the zone closely along with his slider when he throws it. He solely throws it 16.3% of the time, however posts a 40.0 Ok% with it. Though he will get loads Ok’s with this pitch it’s hit much more than any of his different pitches. Batters are getting on base extra usually towards this pitch, with opposing batters having a .394 wOBA towards this pitch, which is nicely above the league common. One other subject with this pitch is he doesn’t generate numerous whiffs with it. He solely will get a whiff 26.4% of the time, with the league common being 33.1%. This exhibits us that Skene’s slider is being hit fairly a bit. This brings me to my subsequent level, which is when his slider is hit, its usually hit exhausting. Skenes’ slider is producing a barrel% of 16.7% in comparison with the league common of seven.1%. For those who’re unfamiliar with this stat click on right here for an in depth clarification. Batters aren’t simply hitting this pitch exhausting, however they’re usually getting further base hits off this pitch as nicely. Opposing batters are posting a .450 ISO off Skenes’ slider. ISO is a metric that measures a hitters uncooked energy by solely taking into consideration their further base hits. If Skenes can get this pitch to generate much less exhausting contact and extra whiffs it would solely assist him enhance his already spectacular begin to his profession. 

Paul Skenes is already off to a fantastic begin in his rookie season with a 4-0 file being a vibrant spot for a struggling Pirates group. As Skenes continues to develop as a pitcher he’ll solely proceed to enhance. He has an elite fastball and an elite means to generate strikeouts and is so enjoyable to look at. I count on Skenes to solely proceed to enhance because the season continues and proceed to be one of many hottest names within the league.