How Has Jack Flaherty Bounced Back This Season?

In 2024, a number of former All-Star pitchers have had rebound years, however maybe probably the most surprising comeback has been from Jack Flaherty. After his debut in 2017, Flaherty rapidly grew to become a strong starter for the Cardinals. His breakout 12 months got here in 2019, the place he posted an unbelievable 0.91 ERA within the second half of the season, completed 4th within the NL Cy Younger voting, and led the Cardinals to an NLCS look. Nonetheless, the next years had been plagued with struggles and accidents. In 2021, Flaherty missed vital time as a result of an indirect pressure and a shoulder pressure, with the latter lingering into 2022. In 2023, he was traded to the Baltimore Orioles, however his efficiency was inconsistent. Regardless of this, it was his healthiest season since 2020, as he pitched 144.1 innings, practically matching his whole innings pitched from 2020-2022 (162.1). In 2024, Flaherty signed a one-year contract with the Detroit Tigers, revitalizing his profession. Let’s discover how he managed to show issues round.

Flaherty’s Stats (By 6/21): 95.0 IP, 16 GS, 3.09 pCRA, 32.4% Okay%, 4.3% BB%, 7.8% Barrel%, 44.1% GB%, 34.2% CSW%, 15.7% SwStr%, 33.4% Whiff%.

This season, Flaherty has posted career-best leads to a number of statistics. Excluding the 2020 season, he’s posted a career-high strikeout price (94th percentile), stroll price (ninety fifth percentile), chase price (78th percentile), and whiff price (94th percentile). His enchancment in stroll price is especially notable, as he had been above 10% the final two seasons, along with his earlier profession finest coming in 2019 at 7.1%. 

Breaking Down the Pitches

Flaherty’s greatest enchancment has been in his command, significantly of his fastball and slider. From a motion perspective, the induced vertical break has elevated from 13.4 inches in 2023 to fifteen.3 inches in 2024 (which is extra common than good, however an enchancment nonetheless). I believe that is both associated to his slight improve in launch peak (5.4 ft in 2023 to five.5 ft in 2024) or his enchancment in spin effectivity (the share of spin price that impacts motion) from 72% in 2023 to 80% in 2024. Final season, I believe Flaherty struggled with uncompetitive misses on the pitch, evidenced by just a few stats. First, he threw the pitch within the strike zone solely 54.0% of the time, barely beneath the league common of 55.8%. Nonetheless, in 2024, Flaherty elevated this pitch’s zone price to 60.8%. Secondly, he’s decreased the share of pitches thrown within the “waste” zone (there isn’t a concrete definition for this, however simply consider a pitch so uncompetitive that batters won’t transfer the bat off their shoulder) from 6.4% in 2023 to 2.9% in 2024, higher than the league common of 5.2%. Lastly, the stroll price on the pitch has improved from 12.8% in 2023 to five.3% this season. On account of Flaherty zoning the pitch extra, the swing price on the pitch has elevated from 41.6% in 2023 to 46.6% in 2024, and batters are whiffing at the next price than they did final season (20.8% Whiff% in 2023 vs 25.8% Whiff% in 2024). 

Flaherty’s slider has a really related motion profile to final season, however as seen by these warmth maps, he’s finding the pitch barely decrease than he did final season. Taking a look at it from a numbers perspective, the share of sliders thrown within the coronary heart of the plate has decreased from 25.0% final season to 16.7% this season. Conversely, the quantity of pitches thrown within the shadow zone (the very best place to get referred to as strikes and whiffs) has elevated from 43.1% to 51.1%. Regardless of the distinction being a matter of inches, this adjustment has paid main dividends: The pitch has a 31.3% Utilization%, 3.47 pCRA, 31.0% Okay%, 5.4% BB%, 8.5% Barrel%, 40.2% GB%, 34.1% CSW%, 20.3% SwStr%, 39.1% Whiff%, all of that are above common. Moreover, he’s trusting the pitch extra as a put-away pitch, evidenced by his elevated utilization in two-strike conditions from 24.7% in 2023 to 32.4% in 2024. 

Flaherty additionally throws a sweeping curveball with 14.1 inches of glove-side motion, which Baseball Savant says is 21% above common. Final season, it was Flaherty’s finest pitch, posting a 19.4% utilization%, 2.78 pCRA, 33.6% Okay% 7.2% BB%, 5.6% Barrel%, 33.4% CSW%, 18.9% SwStr%, and 40.2% Whiff%. All of those numbers had been excellent, however the pitch has taken one other step ahead this 12 months: 18.7% utilization price, 0.54 pCRA, 45.2% Okay%, 0.0% BB%,  0.0% Barrel%, 55.9% GB%, 38.1% CSW%, 21.3% SwStr%, and a 44.5% Whiff%. Whereas I can’t pinpoint a motive for this enchancment from a stuff or location standpoint, I believe the curveball is enjoying off of the fastball higher. 

Final season, Flaherty used a cutter 9.1% of the time primarily as a weapon in opposition to right-handed batters. The pitch had above-average glove aspect motion (84% greater than common), however the outcomes weren’t good: 5.63 pCRA, 17.6% Okay%, 7.8% BB%, 11.4% Barrel%, 28.0% CSW%, 11.7% SwStr%, 26.4% Whiff%. If pitchers are taught to throw their finest pitch typically, the inverse of that’s to throw your worst pitch much less. Flaherty has adopted this logic, which has improved his outcomes.

As of this writing, the Tigers are 5 video games out of the AL Central lead and 6 video games again within the wild-card race. Whereas the group has improved offensively, their finest wager is to deal with 2025. Flaherty, a possible rental, might be beneficial to groups in want of beginning pitching for a playoff push. At solely 28 years outdated, a robust second half and playoff run might set him up for a big payday this offseason. As soon as thought of the most effective up-and-coming pitchers, Jack Flaherty is again on monitor and can be a formidable opponent in a playoff sport.

Stats through Baseball Savant, Alex Chamberlain Pitch Leaderboard