For months, the Astros have expressed hope they’ll re-sign Alex Bregman. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote this afternoon that they’ve made a six-year, $156MM provide — supporting latest reporting from USA At this time’s Bob Nightengale concerning the membership’s consolation zone. Nightengale and McTaggart every recommend that Bregman’s camp hoped to land nearer to $200MM a minimum of.
With a major hole between the perimeters, it’s value analyzing the group’s payroll. RosterResource calculates Houston’s aggressive stability tax quantity at almost $234MM. That’s $7MM shy of subsequent season’s $241MM base threshold. Re-signing Bregman would push them properly into CBT territory. Even when they balk at his asking worth, they’d have to be keen to pay the tax to make any notable upgrades except they ship out wage.
The posh tax isn’t a agency restrict. Proprietor Jim Crane allowed the entrance workplace to push into tax territory this yr. He has advised he’s keen to take action once more if the group feels they’re focusing on the proper gamers. Providing Bregman a $26MM common annual worth reinforces that, even when it wasn’t a proposal the two-time All-Star was more likely to settle for.
The Astros appeared to be up in opposition to their restrict late final winter. As soon as they misplaced Kendall Graveman to shoulder surgical procedure, possession signed off on a stunning $95MM contract for Josh Hader. Perhaps they’ll finally do the identical to retain Bregman. That’d be simpler to check in the event that they managed to dump wage in a commerce, particularly since they’d face escalating penalties for paying the posh tax in consecutive years. How might they go about reducing spending?
The Astros have $142MM in assured contracts for subsequent season. They’d have a tricky time transferring most of these offers. They’re not buying and selling Jose Altuve ($30MM) or Yordan Alvarez ($15MM). There’s little incentive to promote low on Cristian Javier ($10MM) halfway by means of Tommy John rehab. Buying and selling Hader ($19MM) after one season of a five-year deal isn’t occurring. Lance McCullers Jr.’s damage historical past means they wouldn’t discover a taker for his $17MM wage with out paying the contract down nearly the whole means.
Houston can’t commerce any portion of the $19.5MM they owe to José Abreu after releasing him. They might technically commerce Rafael Montero, who stays within the group after being outrighted from the 40-man roster. Nobody’s letting them off the hook for any a part of his $11.5MM wage, although. That’s $122MM in commitments to gamers who’ve nearly no probability of being moved.
Of the gamers on assured offers, the one lifelike commerce choices are Victor Caratini and Ryan Pressly. Caratini is making an reasonably priced $6MM as a high quality complement to Yainer Diaz behind the plate. The Astros might discover a taker, however they’d most likely must subsequently commit $3-4MM to signal a backup catcher. Transferring Caratini wouldn’t make a lot of a distinction within the Bregman bidding.
As we famous once we named Pressly the offseason’s #14 commerce candidate, offloading the reliever’s $14MM wage is essentially the most easy possibility. It’s one the entrance workplace has thought of. A Pressly commerce is a powerful chance, but it surely’s not inevitable. It’d deal a success to their bullpen, for one. Pressly additionally has full no-trade rights as a 10-and-5 participant. If he doesn’t wish to transfer, he’s staying.
That leaves their arbitration group. Houston has one of many greatest arbitration courses within the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz tasks them for a mixed wage nearing $54MM. They’re largely key gamers. Houston’s arb class breaks down as follows (the salaries are projections, not finalized numbers).
Most of these gamers are making between $2-5MM. Buying and selling somebody like Dubón or Meyers is believable, however as with a possible Caratini transfer, it’s not particularly consequential from a payroll perspective. If Houston wished to clear important cash from their arbitration class, the clearest means could be to maneuver one in all Tucker or Valdez.
This week, Chandler Rome of the Athletic floated the thought of the Astros entertaining a Valdez or Tucker commerce. To be clear, that was framed as hypothesis, not outlined reporting that the Astros are literally contemplating it. Tucker and Valdez are each yr from free company. Rome factors out that they’re trending in direction of contracts that Crane has historically been reluctant to approve — particularly Tucker. He argues that the Astros might use one in all Tucker or Valdez so as to add expertise to a skinny farm system whereas remaining a contender for an additional AL West crown. That’s very true if the Astros use the additional payroll room to complete a take care of Bregman.
Of the 2, Valdez would most likely be barely simpler to switch. After a horrible April, Hunter Brown pitched like a top-of-the-rotation starter. Ronel Blanco fired 167 1/3 innings of two.80 ERA ball in a breakout season. Garcia could possibly be prepared for Opening Day after dropping the ’24 season to Tommy John surgical procedure. Earlier than his damage, he was a high quality mid-rotation starter. The identical is true of McCullers, though his damage historical past over the previous three seasons makes him tough to rely on. Spencer Arrighetti confirmed the power to overlook bats and quietly posted a wonderful end in 2024; over his remaining 13 begins, he pitched 76 innings with a 3.08 ERA, 29% strikeout charge and eight.3% stroll charge. J.P. France could possibly be again later within the yr after dropping this season to a shoulder process. He’s a succesful back-end arm if wholesome.
Buying and selling Valdez would subtract the Astros’ most dependable supply of innings, to make certain. But a beginning 5 of Brown, Garcia, Blanco, Arrighetti and a few mixture of McCullers and France has respectable upside. The Astros would most likely want so as to add rotation assist on the deadline for a second straight yr, but it surely wouldn’t be a disastrous group to open the season. They’d have to be extra aggressive in stockpiling non-roster depth than they’ve been in prior offseasons. They might additionally goal a minimum of one near-MLB pitching prospect in the event that they have been to significantly contemplate a Valdez commerce.
Transferring Tucker is a a lot tougher promote. Even when the Astros don’t suppose there’s a lot probability they’ll re-sign him, they’d take an enormous downgrade to their 2025 lineup. Tucker could possibly be a prime 5-10 hitter in MLB subsequent season. His foot damage was a supply of frustration this yr, however there’s no method to change the form of manufacturing (.289/.408/.585 with 23 homers in 339 plate appearances) they’d be dropping. The outfield is already a relative weak level after McCormick underperformed this yr.
None of that is to say a Tucker or Valdez commerce is probably going. Certainly, there’s no indication the Astros have given both situation severe thought. In the event that they discover it tougher than anticipated to line up a Pressly commerce, there’s a minimum of an argument for them considering greater to create some spending capability.
