Hitter xwOBA Underperformers & Overperformers

We’re simply over a fifth of the way in which by means of the season, which looks like prime time to start out making commerce provides. I sometimes use this time to determine my group’s overperformers and underperforming targets on my leaguemates’ groups after which ship out a flurry of provides. You by no means understand how different house owners worth your overperforming gamers or whether or not they have develop into impatient with their very own underperformers. So it’s value discovering out by partaking in commerce talks. In the present day, I’ll evaluate the highest underperformers and overperformers by evaluating wOBA versus Statcast’s xwOBA. We all know the latter isn’t excellent, but it surely’s the perfect metric we at present have to guage anticipated efficiency to-date.

Can you employ a catcher improve? Odds are you may! Say good day to Salvador Perez who leads certified hitters in xwOBA underperformance. Whereas I’m completely shocked to see an xBA of .331 that he has nearly zero probability of reaching, the xSLG tells us that he has considerably underperformed in energy. All his Statcast energy metrics look regular and he’s even sitting with an elite 15.2% HR/FB charge. But in some way he’s posted only a 4.5% HR/FB charge and .138 ISO. That looks like a magic act, so you would need to think about that sooner or later, and maybe very quickly, these extra-base hits and homers will begin racking up.

Andrew Vaughn appeared like the proper “he has to interrupt out sooner or later after posting stable and secure expertise for 4 straight seasons” selection this yr, however as a substitute, nothing has gone his manner. Like Perez, he has in some way managed an elite 14.6% Barrel%, and a HardHit% simply over 50%, however only a 7.3% HR/FB charge and .104 ISO. How is that doable?! Certain, a few of that .204 BABIP is deserved because of a lowly 13.5% LD%, however he appears critically due for an influence surge. He may make for a great goal in AL-Solely leagues if you happen to want a nook man.

It’s not usually you Yordan Alvarez sitting with a .279 wOBA, however Statcast thinks it’s all simply been unhealthy luck to this point. The abilities right here stay robust, albeit down from his peak marks, so it’s solely a matter of time earlier than he turns issues round. After all, we’ll have to attend a bit longer now since he simply hit the IL.

I used to be fairly bullish on Brandon Lowe given the Rays new momentary house park, however didn’t roster him in any of my three leagues. Whereas he has managed to remain wholesome to this point, he hasn’t achieved a lot offensively. The Statcast energy metrics are all proper consistent with his historical past, so it’s bizarre seeing him with only a .102 ISO, but it surely’s additionally bizarre that he has posted a wonderfully affordable 14.8% HR/FB charge. Extremely, the 4 house runs he’s hit have been his solely 4 extra-base hits all season. That’s proper, he’s nonetheless looking for his first double! That’s loopy. So from a fantasy perspective, a rebound nearer to his xwOBA received’t yield as a lot as a few of the others because it’s principally simply the dearth of doubles proper now killing his wOBA.

Alec Bohm is 127 at-bats into the season proper now and he has but to hit a house run. That’s even with the second highest HardHit% of his profession and his highest Barrel% since his double digit mark throughout the quick 2020 season. Every little thing right here appears fully regular, so anticipate him to rapidly get again on monitor. After all, most of his useful is tied up in batting common and a great RBI slot within the order, which all the time made him dangerous as he simply doesn’t have the ability to present him a excessive ground.

After a poor 2024, it could be straightforward to surprise if Marcus Semien is experiencing an accelerated offensive decline. However Statcast suggests the decline hasn’t been as swift because it seems. Like a few of the others, the HardHit% and Barrel% all look tremendous in comparison with his historical past, however he has managed only a 4.5% HR/FB charge and microscopic .058 ISO. There does appear to be some growing old results right here, although, as his strikeout charge has spiked and his SwStk% is the very best it’s been since his small pattern debut again in 2013. He has additionally struggled to hit line drives, hampering his BABIP.

This was not the start to his sophomore season Dylan Crews house owners anticipated. However then once more, it’s not considerably worse than his weak output throughout his cup of espresso final yr. And even final yr he dramatically underperformed his xwOBA. It’s manner too early to think about this a development, however one thing value monitoring. The house run energy has been right here, although he has oddly struggled to hit doubles, knocking only one to this point this season. He has additionally continues to submit a low BABIP, regardless that his LD% is up from final yr, however nonetheless under league common. The strikeout charge surge, mixed with the drop in stroll charge, is a bit regarding. Total, the ability set doesn’t look nice, however the upside right here stays intriguing.

Otto Lopez has made some adjustments to his ability set since final yr and he truly appears like a good participant. Too unhealthy his BABIP had collapsed earlier than he hit the IL so it’ll be some time earlier than he’s capable of strive rebounding.

Holy cow, Matt Olson’s xwOBA is even greater than his profession excessive mark in 2023 throughout his profession yr! Amazingly, each his HardHit% and Barrel% are sitting at profession highs, and but his HR/FB charge and ISO marks are at profession lows. Whaaaaaaaaat?! Oh, and his stroll charge has surged to an elite stage, whereas his strikeout charge has dropped under 20% for the primary time, pushed by a single digit SwStk% for the primary time. If I hadn’t seen his outcomes, I might have guessed he was again to his 2023 hitting methods en route to a different profession season. He appears like a major commerce goal.

Bryan Reynolds had been hampered by a triceps concern for half of the season to this point, which restricted him to DH duties by means of mid-April. He’s again in proper discipline since although, however he’s nonetheless been an enormous xwOBA underperformer. Just like the others on the checklist, the Statcast metrics look nice and his Barrel% is definitely at a profession excessive. However his HR/FB charge and ISO sit at profession lows. Reynolds is seemingly a bit boring, however house owners ought to keep away from the temptation to promote low right here.

For some motive, the gaps between wOBA and xwOBA are a lot smaller for the highest overperformers than underperformers, so this checklist is shorter.

I assumed that maybe Luis Arraez was a constant xwOBA overperformer as he simply appeared like the kind of man who could possibly be. He’s not. He’s primarily flip-flopped overperforming and underperforming every season, so his present xwOBA actually stands out. Statcast ain’t shopping for his sudden energy outburst, and taking a look at his metrics, I may see why. His HardHit% is at a profession low, and it was all the time low to start with. Oh, and he has but to even barrel a ball, leaving him with a 0.0% Barrel%. Every little thing else appears regular and also you’d even anticipate his .286 BABIP to rebound. However that house run tempo isn’t going to stay, although I’m positive most house owners aren’t going to care.

Andy Pages has been a sizzling pickup lately because of a surprisingly robust begin to the season, delivering each energy and a contact of velocity. Statcast thinks it’s all been a mirage. Though his metrics look affordable, the Statcast energy metrics make each his HR/FB charge and ISO look fairly flukey, whereas his excessive fly ball tendency make it onerous to consider he may maintain a .319 BABIP. I’m betting he finally ends up proper again in a variety of free agent swimming pools over the following couple of weeks as house owners who added the new participant of the week find yourself dropping stated participant.

Ooooof, I didn’t need to see Victor Scott II’s identify right here as he was a part of a number of of my daring predictions after an encouraging spring coaching that gave me hope he had remodeled into a brand new participant. Amazingly, Statcast isn’t shopping for his present stage of energy, regardless that his HR/FB charge sits at simply 6.9% and ISO at .133. However the greatest pink flag is the .373 BABIP, although an enormous LD% and nil pop-ups have actually helped maintain that BABIP afloat. It’s fairly clear that he’s an improved participant versus final yr, however I in all probability put an excessive amount of inventory into his improved strikeout charge and energy output throughout spring coaching. I’m nonetheless ready for his .356 OBP to get moved towards the highest of the order, but when it hasn’t occurred but, it might by no means, which hurts all his counting stats.

The Rockies are lastly doing one thing proper by letting Hunter Goodman play on daily basis and his xwOBA overperformance has stored him within the lineup. Sadly, if he does hunch towards that xwOBA, he may discover himself again in Triple-A, as a result of, ya know, the Rockies. His .325 BABIP is clearly the supply of the overperformance, and it’s shocking he’s recorded such a mark given the low 14.1% LD% and excessive fly ball tendency. Certain, Coors does assist right here, however to not this diploma. I might additionally anticipate an elevated strikeout charge transferring ahead given his excessive 16.2% SwStk%. Total, anticipate the continued energy, however a decline in batting common, maybe a precipitous one, and any prolonged hunch may get him benched, or worse, demoted to the minors.

Heyyyyy, there’s our good pal Jose Altuve, the poster boy for xwOBA overperformance! He has overperformed during the last 4 seasons after which if we skip when he marginally underperformed throughout the quick 2020 season, now we have 5 straight seasons of overperformance once more, bringing us again to the primary season now we have xwOBA calculated. What does he try this xwOBA fails to seize?! That stated, his .259 xwOBA is much and away the worst mark of his profession. The excellent news is that he has routinely overperformed by a minimum of the quantity he’s at present doing so, so there’s no expectation he’ll slide additional to satisfy his xwOBA. Nonetheless, it’s not promising for the 35-year-old, as he is likely to be en path to his worst offensive season since 2013.

So Alex Bregman is solely loving his new Fenway Park house, eh? Nope, he has truly posted the next wOBA on the highway! That is principally a batting common factor as Statcast doesn’t assume he’s deserving of a .350 BABIP. Amazingly, that may be simply the second time his BABIP exceeded even .290 over a full season. His energy enhance appears principally legit to this point, although, as he’s sitting with the very best HardHit% and Barrel% marks, by far, of his profession.