We’re nearly 1 / 4 of the way in which by way of the common season, and we nonetheless discover some stunning names among the many house run leaders, whereas others are mysteriously sitting towards the underside. Since there are a variety of parts that drive a hitter’s house run complete, I like to grasp what’s offering the gasoline. Figuring out the adjustments in inputs will give us a greater concept of whether or not the present efficiency is sustainable or we might anticipate a reversion again to what the hitter had been projected to do all alongside. So with that in thoughts, let’s overview the AB/HR breakouts and busts.
What I did for this train was calculate the preseason ATC projected AB/HR and evaluate it to the present precise mark. Somewhat than subtract and type (which might skew outcomes towards these with AB/HR, whether or not projected or precise, within the triple digits), I calculated the share of the projected AB/HR the precise AB/HR represents. By doing this, I averted the man projected for 600 AB/HR that’s at present at 300 AB/HR, which might seemingly end in a two-homer tempo as an alternative of 1. That’s meaningless, in fact.
With two homers greater than he hit all of final yr, in about double the at-bats, Pete Crow-Armstrong has been one in all fantasy’s MVPs to this point, particularly when accounting for price. Two drivers are fueling this energy breakout. First, his HR/FB price has almost doubled, supported by a Barrel% that has jumped into double digits and common bat velocity up 1.2 MPH. Moreover, he has grow to be an excessive fly ball hitter — his 54.6% FB% is up 12.1% in comparison with final season and is fourth highest amongst certified hitters. So it’s a simple method, hitting extra fly balls, and hitting the next proportion of these fly balls out of the park goes to end in a serious house run breakout.
It’s exhausting to consider both mark being sustained over the remainder of the season, although the FB% is extra intentional and maybe a acutely aware alternative. His HardHit% is a bit above common, whereas his maxEV is simply marginally increased than final yr and across the league common. I’m unsure he has the uncooked energy to maintain that HR/FB price and it’ll be exhausting to keep up a FB% over 50%. At the very least he’s bought the steals although if his house run tempo declines!
Geraldo Perdomo hasn’t precisely been on the fantasy radar as other than a handful of steals, he wasn’t a lot of a contributor wherever else. He’s now near matching his earlier profession excessive in house runs and it’d are available in half the at-bats or much less. His HR/FB price stays under league common, however is sort of double his earlier profession excessive and nearly quadruple is low from final yr. Whereas he hasn’t but hit a ball tougher than final yr, all his Statcast metrics, together with his common bat velocity, have improved. After all, all the things nonetheless stays under the league common, so there’s nearly undoubtedly no extra upside from right here. Since he’s stealing greater than ever, strolling a ton, and has a good profile for batting common, it’s not likely a giant deal if his house run tempo slows down, which I do anticipate.
Maikel Garcia was clearly drafted for his stolen bases, with the promise of the occasional house run. The steals have continued to return, however now he’s simply two away from matching his profession excessive house run complete. To date, he has double his HR/FB price from final yr and almost doubled his Barrel%. Apparently, his HardHit% all the time hinted at imminent energy and his maxEV has remained fairly wholesome. However for no matter cause, he simply hasn’t been capable of mix that exit velocity with an optimum launch angle to provide extra energy. It’s anybody’s guess if he might instantly keep this increased Barrel%, however because it’s nonetheless under common, I’m going to wager that he’ll come nearer to his present AB/HR the remainder of the way in which than what he was projected for.
Okay, first off, can we simply take a second to acknowledge that Luis Arraez has struck out all of thrice all season?! That’s insane! It really works out to a microscopic 1.8% strikeout price. That’s really one of many drivers of his higher than anticipated AB/HR price, as he’s merely placing extra balls in play than we thought was humanly attainable. He’s someway managed three house runs regardless of failing to document a single barrel to this point, and his HardHit% is at a profession low and under 20% for the primary time. So, his uncooked energy hasn’t really elevated in any respect, however out of all these balls in play, three managed to seek out the seats. It’s exhausting to consider he might sustain this strikeout price, and whether or not or not he does, I don’t assume he’ll keep the AB/HR price.
Jacob Wilson hit 4 house runs in spring coaching for a 25% HR/FB price, however that doesn’t all the time imply something. This time, it seemingly did. His Statcast metrics are literally fairly weak and his common bat velocity is likely one of the lowest marks in baseball. So it’s exhausting to think about he maintains a double digit HR/FB price. Making his house run tempo much more difficult to maintain up is the tiny 22.2% FB%. He merely doesn’t hit many balls within the air and doesn’t have sufficient energy for a excessive price of these to go away the yard. Along with his low stroll and low strikeout price strategy, he’s really giving me Arraez vibes. Which means he’ll seemingly proceed as a superb batting common contributor, however not a lot else since he doesn’t steal bases.
It’s been a full-fledged breakout for Kyle Stowers to this point who sports activities a surprising .404 wOBA, which is extremely supported by a .406 xwOBA. There’s been no luck right here! His strikeout price has improved a bit, although he nonetheless swings and misses a ton and his HardHit% stays elite at simply over 50%, however the massive distinction comes from his Barrel%. He was within the low double digits in 2022 and 2024, however he has doubled that mark this yr and now ranks fourth in baseball amongst certified hitters. He has additionally elevated his common bat velocity by 1.1 MPH. He has posted 20%+ HR/FB charges within the minors, however his energy scouting grades didn’t counsel he can be a giant energy producer within the Majors. To date, his metrics validate what he’s carried out to this point, however that doesn’t imply he’ll sustain these metrics. I’ve to consider the Barrel% will decline, although he’s in all probability nonetheless able to a excessive teen to low-20% HR/FB price. Oh, and he’s not going to maintain up the .389 BABIP.
Eugenio Suárez has discovered the fountain of youth, as he has posted his lowest strikeout price since 2018, and the very best FB%, HardHit% and Barrel% of his profession. His common bat velocity has been secure and his maxEV is identical as all the time. So maybe it’s simply been a robust 164 at-bats because the 33-year-old seemingly didn’t acquire any uncooked energy, however has simply been hitting the ball extra optimally to this point this season.
Spencer Torkelson is nice once more! Truly, he’s been considerably higher than his 31-homer yr in 2023. Apparently, his HardHit% and maxEV sit under his 2023 marks, whereas his Barrel% is simply marginally increased. However his HR/FB price has jumped, and a profession excessive FB% has benefited his AB/HR price. I don’t see any cause to assume he received’t sustain this degree of efficiency. He even has some slight upside, at the very least on the batting common facet, given his low .245 BABIP.
We knew that James Wooden had massive house run potential. He had posted robust energy numbers within the minors and HardHit% marks over 50% since Triple-A final yr. The knock on him was a low FB%, however he has improved that mark this season. It nonetheless stays under common although and it’s attainable a few of these flies flip into line drives, because the latter sits at a properly under common price after coming in above common final yr. Together with the elevated FB% is a surge in Barrel%, plus a 1.8 MPH acquire in bat velocity. We’ll should see the place his batted ball profile lands, however that is clearly a future celebrity.
Wilyer Abreu is a good instance of why it’s price diving into the drivers of a house run outburst. Sure, his HR/FB price is up a bit, and his Barrel% has spiked too, however a lot of the AB/HR breakout has been pushed by an improved strikeout price and soar in FB%. The strikeout price has come down an unimaginable 9% because of a decreased SwStk%, whereas his FB% ranks first amongst all certified hitters. So he’s placing much more balls within the air, plus the next price of these balls are going over the fence. That’s the recipe for a house run spike. As traditional, I don’t understand how sustainable the improved strikeout price is and it’ll undoubtedly be exhausting to keep up a league main FB%. However I do assume his HR/FB price is affordable.
Each Nico Hoerner and Xavier Edwards have but to homer, making their 2025 marks and the share distinction between years infinite. It’s not like these two have been anticipated to be important house run contributors although, so homeowners aren’t lose a lot right here. They’ll simply want a house run or two quickly and instantly their paces might be proper again on observe.
What has occurred to Jonathan India’s energy?! Oh, I do know what, I rostered him in AL Tout Wars! He’s hanging out at a profession greatest clip, whereas his FB% has jumped over 40% for the primary time. That mixture ought to be implausible for his house run potential, however as an alternative, he’s sitting right here with only one house run and a tiny 1.7% HR/FB price! His HardHit% is similar to final yr, and whereas his maxEV and Barrel% are down a bit from years previous, it’s not sufficient so to justify the ability outage. Since he hasn’t stolen a base but, he’s been a serious bust to this point. The ability ought to undoubtedly enhance, however with out a double digit steal tempo, it’ll be exhausting to salvage his draft day price.
Joey Bart loved a half season breakout final yr after the previous prime prospect dissatisfied with the bat for years. This yr, his energy has disappeared, as his FB% has slipped under 30%, whereas his HR/FB price sits at simply 4.2%. Surprisingly, his HardHit% sits comfortably above common and on the second highest mark of his brief profession, whereas his double digit Barrel% represents a profession excessive. Certain, the dearth of fly balls isn’t nice, however he seemingly deserves a considerably higher house run price than he’s posted to this point. He appears like a very good commerce goal for these in want of a catcher improve.
Can somebody clarify how Gavin Lux managed a 25.2% HR/FB price and .260 ISO within the minors again in 2019 and hasn’t proven something near that energy since? All of us preserve ready for the ability spike and a transfer to house run pleasant Nice American Ballpark appeared like a attainable spark. As a substitute, he’s homered simply as soon as, posting a profession low FB% and HR/FB price. His HardHit% stays above the league common, however his maxEV has fallen and his Barrel% is properly under the league common and nowhere close to the extent of an influence hitter. Oh, and he has misplaced 1.7 MPH in bat velocity. He’s nonetheless 27 years previous, so I assume it might be foolish to utterly write him off. However he’s proven completely nothing to make us assume an influence surge will ever be in his future.
Luis Rengifo has posted 4 straight double digit HR/FB charges, however is sitting at a profession low, whereas his FB% stays sub-30% after dipping final yr. So in different phrases, few fly balls, and when he does hit the uncommon fly ball, it stays on the sphere. His HardHit% is down and maxEV weak, although his Barrel% isn’t too far under his profession common. So his energy will seemingly enhance from right here. The extra worrisome difficulty for his fantasy homeowners (which incorporates me, sadly) is the one steal to 3 caught stealings. After swiping 24 bases in half a season final yr, it positive appeared like a 20-steal season, on the very least, can be within the bag over a full yr. Oops, guess not! He’s been one other main bust this yr.
Salvador Perez has come up in another latest articles the place I concluded that he makes for a terrific commerce goal. He nonetheless hasn’t turned issues round, which suggests I’ll in all probability be calling him a super goal till the season ends, at which level I’ll admit defeat. The whole lot right here appears regular and glorious, besides that weird 3.4% HR/FB price. Severely, how has he managed that HR/FB price with a robust 13.6% Barrel%?! That’s loopy!
Joey Ortiz has decreased his strikeout price and raised his FB%, however sadly, his HR/FB price has collapsed to simply 2%, leading to only a lone dinger. His difficulty, like Lux above, has been barreling the ball, regardless of acceptable different Statcast metrics. With only a .208 wOBA, you must marvel how lengthy he’ll stay within the beginning lineup, although the Brewers don’t have any apparent options.
In 2023, it appeared like Ke’Bryan Hayes was lastly seeing his energy blossom. Then it went downhill final yr and it hasn’t recovered. One of many drivers of his profession excessive 15 homers in 2023 was a 39% FB%. He has been under 30% each different season and is at simply 32.5% this yr. He seemingly has an excessive Lux/Ortiz drawback, as his HardHit% is great at 48%, whereas his maxEV marks have all the time been above 110. However like these different names, he merely hasn’t been capable of barrel the ball. I really marvel how some hitters might hit the ball exhausting, however seemingly solely on the bottom, so their exit velocity associated metrics look good, however Barrel% unhealthy. It appears fixable, and we see breakouts on a regular basis get pleasure from a surge in Barrel% who all the time had the HardHit% and maxEV, however you by no means know if and when that breakout will occur. Hayes looks like a very good candidate to finally get pleasure from a Barrel% spike and attain 20 house runs in some unspecified time in the future.
Trea Turner’s FB% is down in a tie for the bottom price of his profession, whereas his HR/FB price is a couple of third of his profession mark and solely the second time it has sat in single digits. Each his HardHit% and maxEV look fantastic, however his Barrel% is down at its lowest since 2017. He has misplaced a mile per hour in bat velocity, however that doesn’t appear massive sufficient to clarify the massive HR/FB price decline. That his stolen base tempo has jumped versus final yr has helped preserve his fantasy worth afloat.
