Earlier than the 2024 season, I launched a collection of six articles, one for every division, breaking down three pitchers from every division I believed might have a rebound season in 2024. These articles will be discovered right here:
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
The purpose of those articles was to search out a wide range of pitchers; younger or previous, profitable or unproven, even wholesome or injured, with the widespread objective of discovering causes to count on success within the 2024 season.
After a protracted 2024 season (highlighted by tons of pitcher accidents!), I wished to revisit these picks and see how they turned out. I graded every choose from “F” to “A+” – if a pitcher threw an incomplete season because of damage, I gave them an “N/A” grade.
AL East
Grade: N/A
John Means entered 2024 with numerous questions, centered round his well being, stuff, and standing because the Orioles entered 2024 with a crowded rotation. Sadly, Means was unable to determine himself within the rotation, making three Could begins and leaving after 3 innings in his fourth because of damage.
Means additionally made 6 ineffective begins in AAA, additional leaving his Main League future in query, though damage is probably going a giant contributor to those worries. A bigger pattern might see his stuff enhance, though we by no means bought the prospect in 2024.
There are nonetheless tons of query marks for Means, though the Orioles might actually use his high-potential output over the following few years.
Grade: A
Tanner Houck had a massively spectacular 2024 marketing campaign, silencing any issues about his long-term potential within the rotation as he led a closely injured Purple Sox rotation to a decent 81-81 season.
Houck’s greatest issues got here from his insistence on utilizing his fastballs, together with his four-seam particularly being crushed each time thrown. Whereas his sinker utilization stayed at an inexpensive 32%, he stopped throwing his four-seam completely and bumped up his splitter utilization as a substitute, which turned a really priceless providing.
This got here from an organizational shift by the Purple Sox, who discouraged fastball utilization throughout the board. In Houck’s case, this was precisely the change he wanted, as he additionally changed his slider with a sweeper that generated wonderful outcomes (35.2 CSW% and 5.47 PLV) as his major pitch.
Whereas Houck has some holes in his recreation, as his 10.6 SwStr% is nicely under common, his skill to generate floor balls and restrict the house run ball makes him a really high-upside starter for the Purple Sox.
Grade: B-
2024 was a bizarre season for Carlos Rodón; 175.0 IP and 16-9 file is nice, however his 4.39 FIP and 1.59 HR/9 are far cries from his elite 2.25 FIP and 0.61 HR/9 in 2022.
Nonetheless, Rodon was a priceless pitcher for the Yankees in 2024. Not the elite starter he was up to now, however he was wholesome and adjusted after a disastrous 2023 season.
There have been many steps in the best path for Rodon as nicely—his common PLV (5.19), CSW% (29.3), and Ok/BB% (3.42) have been a lot nearer to his 2022 numbers than in 2023, though not at fairly the identical degree.
To be an efficient starter, Rodon must proceed adjusting and adapting his recreation as he ages—as 2025 might be his age-32 season, he’s now on the incorrect aspect of the getting older curve and can doubtless see his high-octane stuff decline within the subsequent few years.
Nonetheless, Rodon launched a superb changeup in 2024 that might be massively necessary as he ages, and he might doubtlessly see additional arsenal upgrades that would assist his future outlook for the Yankees.
AL Central
Grade: A-
For these numbers, an A- grade may be very aggressive for Michael Kopech, though I consider the changes he made after a mid-season commerce to the Dodgers make it justifiable.
After his July twenty ninth commerce to the Dodgers, Kopech was considered one of if not essentially the most priceless relievers in MLB. Pitching to a 1.13 ERA over 24.0 innings, Kopech had a 1.82 WPA (-1.85 w/ White Sox) and was a key a part of an injured Dodgers pitching workers that received a World Sequence.
Within the Dodgers’ five-game set in opposition to the Padres within the NLDS, Kopech pitched in 4 video games, permitting no runs and placing out 5, contributing to an enormous comeback that will be the closest collection of their postseason.
Kopech’s improved efficiency largely got here from a transfer to the bullpen. Though he wasn’t as efficient till he joined Mark Prior and the Dodgers, Kopech’s fastball velocity was up over 3 mph whereas being thrown 78% of the time and nonetheless generated nice outcomes. Kopech is actually considered one of a form and can doubtless proceed seeing success out of the bullpen sooner or later.
Grade: B
Brady Singer had a strong 2024 season, tossing a career-high 179.2 innings with a sub-4 FIP and 22.3 Ok%, up from 18.9 in 2023. Singer additionally posted a career-best 5.03 common PLV after including just a few pitches to his arsenal and enhancing his sinker form.
After these enhancements, it’s affordable to query why Singer is barely at a “B.” Largely, this is because of Singer not fixing his greatest issues, and solely studying to stay with them—this isn’t completely a nasty factor, however one thing that limits his ceiling.
Whereas Singer’s 5.03 PLV is healthier than ever earlier than, it’s nonetheless within the twenty fourth percentile amongst starters. His 4.65 xERA, 77.8 LOB%, and 41.7 HardHit% aren’t nice indicators of future outcomes, both.
This stuff doubtless led to Singer’s exclusion from the Royals’s playoff rotation, going through solely a single batter out of the bullpen.
Singer has a vivid future and took some steps in the best path by diversifying his pitch arsenal and enhancing pitch shapes. Nonetheless, Singer has some methods to go earlier than taking one other step ahead.
Grade: B+
Joe Ryan had a powerful 2024 marketing campaign, bouncing again from a wierd 2023 season to bolster a formidable three-headed monster on the high of the Twins rotation alongside Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober.
Ryan developed his arsenal into 5 above-average pitches, led by his distinctive four-seam that, whereas permitting fly balls at an especially excessive fee (55.8 FB% and 29.7 common LA), restricted laborious contact (87.6 common FB EV) and averaged an elite 5.45 PLV.
Ryan’s sweeper might even be his most improved pitch, averaging a 5.62 PLV and 33.5 CSW%, up from 26.5 in 2023.
The one draw back to Ryan’s 2024 season was he threw simply 135.0 innings in 23 begins, struggling a severe shoulder damage in late August that positioned him on the 60-day IL.
As a consequence of his distinctive launch level and excessive extension, a severe shoulder damage might be a long-term danger. His elite expertise and excessive potential at simply 28 years previous are very thrilling, and I actually hope his restoration goes nicely.
AL West
Grade: N/A
Cristian Javier had a brief 2024 season, throwing 34.2 innings earlier than present process Tommy John surgical procedure in early June and lacking the remainder of the season.
Earlier than his damage, Javier seemed much like 2023 stuff-wise, doubtless because of his nagging elbow damage. A full restoration could lead on Javier to seem like his previous self in 2025, however that continues to be to be seen.
Javier’s uniquely dominant four-seam, or “invisiball“, is a good story for baseball, and I hope his elbow surgical procedure may also help him rediscover his nice stuff.
Grade: C+
Andrew Heaney had a wierd 2024 season—whereas his ERA was largely unchanged, his FIP took a step ahead as his stuff appeared nearer to his spectacular 2022 marketing campaign.
Nonetheless, his outcomes have been removed from alike—his Ok% continued to fall, and but he posted a career-best 5.9 BB% whereas inducing fewer floor balls and barely much less laborious contact.
Heaney additionally allowed fewer residence runs, together with his 1.29 HR/9 being his greatest since 2020 and .410 SLG in opposition to being his greatest since 2015.
Most of this might derived from a lowered four-seam utilization, but it surely’s merely one other shift in Heaney’s strategy that hasn’t paid off in the identical approach his weird 2022 season with the Dodgers did.
Grade: B+
Tyler Anderson had an encouraging 2024 season, highlighted by his 179.1 IP and 31 begins for an Angels group in search of a veteran presence of their rotation. Because the Angels proceed to rebuild in 2025, Anderson is well-positioned to additional cement his position within the remaining yr of his 3-year, $39 million contract with the Angels.
Like Heaney, Anderson additional leaned into his 2023 adjustments, besides they largely paid off for Anderson. His four-seam gained much more iVB, averaging a strong 4.98 PLV and 96 Pitching+ regardless of averaging simply 89 mph.
Anderson’s greatest pitch, his changeup, improved as nicely, being thrown decrease and in-zone extra ceaselessly than in 2023, which led to raised batted-ball outcomes and extra known as strikes, regardless of its pitch form and whiffs generated staying comparatively the identical.
Whereas Anderson did enable too many residence runs and walked extra batters than you’d like, he took a step ahead with out transforming his pitching formulation and is well-positioned to take one other step ahead in 2025.
