Giants Acquire Rafael Devers in Unexpected Blockbuster

Look, I’ll simply get proper to it:

The San Francisco Giants are buying Rafael Devers from the Boston Crimson Sox for Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison and extra, in keeping with sources aware of the deal.

— Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray) June 15, 2025

That’s the type of blockbuster you don’t see on daily basis. Rafael Devers is the perfect wholesome Crimson Sox hitter. The Sox are above .500 and within the thick of the AL playoff hunt. They’re determined for offense – although they got here into the yr with extra hitters than spots, accidents to Alex Bregman, Triston Casas, Wilyer Abreu, and Masataka Yoshida have left them scrambling for depth. Abraham Toro has been batting excessive within the order of late. Romy Gonzalez is their backup DH. They usually simply traded their beginning DH – hitting .271/.400/494, good for 14 house runs and a 145 wRC+ – for wage aid? We’re going to want a deeper dive.

Let’s begin with the return. The Sox despatched Devers and his whole contract – 10 years and $313.5 million at time of signing, with about $250 million and eight.5 years left on it right now – to the Giants. In alternate, they bought a large combination of gamers. There’s a significant leaguer, Jordan Hicks. There’s a lately graduated prospect, Kyle Harrison. There’s a well-regarded hitting prospect, James Tibbs III. There’s one other, additional away prospect, pitcher Jose Bello. Lastly, there’s that candy, candy monetary flexibility, one thing the Sox aren’t any stranger to.

Should you take a look at baseball utterly within the summary, with bean-counting surplus worth as your solely guiding mild for evaluating a commerce, this one appears affordable sufficient. Devers is below contract for lots of years at a whole lot of {dollars} per yr, and projection methods persistently suppose that he’ll generate low WAR totals for his wage within the again half of his deal. Harrison was a high 25 prospect not so way back. Tibbs was a primary spherical draft decide final yr. Bello is an attention-grabbing lottery ticket. Hicks – okay, Hicks might need been a wage offset. However the level is, it’s doubtless that if all you care about is WAR accrued per greenback spent, the Sox come out forward on this deal for many affordable fashions of surplus worth.

I don’t suppose these fashions make a ton of sense right here, although. The Crimson Sox try to make the playoffs. You realize what their workforce may use greater than a 22-year-old in Excessive-A and a former high pitching prospect with a 4.50 profession ERA? They may use a slugging DH with the right swing for Fenway. If their wildest goals got here true, possibly he’d be 28 and below workforce management for a very long time in order that they didn’t should strive desperately to discover a alternative quickly.

Guys like Devers don’t develop on timber. Need an instance of what I imply? There aren’t any gamers on both the Crimson Sox or Giants projected for a greater batting line the remainder of the season. In 2024? You guessed it: No participant on both the Crimson Sox or Giants produced the next wRC+ than Devers. There are higher hitters than Devers, however there aren’t many. Constructing a baseball workforce is a sport of marshaling scarce assets, and one of many scarcest of all is a very impactful hitter.

It’s attainable that Tibbs, who for my cash is the perfect participant the Sox bought again on this deal, will find yourself being an impactful hitter, although clearly he doesn’t venture to prove in addition to Devers has. A 2024 first spherical pick of Florida State, Tibbs struggled in his transient professional debut however appears at house this yr. He’s evaluated as a 45-FV prospect, displaying a powerful command of the strike zone and hitting the ball arduous. Right here’s a extra detailed scouting report courtesy of Eric Longenhagen:

Tibbs was a constant three-year performer at Florida State, the place he hit .338/.462/.685 all through his profession. He had an influence leap as a junior, doubling his profession house run whole with 28 draft-year bombs; he additionally improved his Okay-to-BB ratio, with 58 walks and 37 strikeouts in 320 PA. He had one of many 2024 draft’s greater flooring as a lefty bat with a secure mix of contact and energy. A extremely putrid post-draft summer time solid a pall upon his profile till Tibbs was in a position to proper the ship in 2025; he was despatched again to Eugene and was hitting .245/.377/.480 with 12 homers in 56 video games previous to the Rafael Devers commerce.

Tibbs’ lightning fast arms enable him to grab inner-half pitches to his pull facet and generate oppo contact on pitches that journey deeper within the zone. For the way compact he’s, Tibbs is sort of robust and makes use of the bottom nicely to assist him generate energy. He’s of medium construct at a comparatively maxed-out 6-feet tall and doesn’t produce monster peak exit velos (his max exits are roughly common), however he persistently hits the ball arduous and within the air, which speaks to the verve in his hitting arms. He crushes in the course of the plate, however appears a lot much less comfy going through lefties, and has had some hassle masking the up-and-away portion of the zone as a result of his hips are likely to bail towards first base as he unwinds.

He additionally wants to enhance on protection. A few of this could be that the turf in Eugene creates a quick monitor of types for batted balls, however Tibbs has performed some routine singles into triples this yr as a result of the baseball will get behind him, and he generally appears uncomfortable on the catch level on fly balls. He has a very good arm and must be developed in proper discipline, however he has some work to do on the market if he’s going to be a mean defender. Tibbs is an effective hitter and prospect whose affordable outcomes are that of a righty-mashing platoon outfielder who might have to be subbed out towards lefties or for a defensive alternative. If he can enhance in even a kind of areas, then he’ll venture extra like an on a regular basis participant. He’s monitoring to debut generally in late 2027 or 2028.

Subsequent on my private listing of impression chance can be Harrison, who debuted in 2023 as San Francisco’s high prospect and has been bouncing between the large leagues, Triple-A, and the IL ever since. His two-plane, slurvy breaking ball is his finest weapon, however the remainder of his arsenal may use an overhaul. The mix of a low arm slot and his four-seamer’s motion signifies that his fastball performs down from its uncooked velocity. He’s made it work this yr due to glorious command, however I anticipate the Sox will need to remake that pitch considerably.

Boston appears to agree that Harrison isn’t instantly prepared for the majors; he was within the San Francisco rotation on the time of the commerce (slated to begin Sunday’s sport!), however the Crimson Sox optioned him to Triple-A after buying him. Meaning the one participant who will be part of Boston’s playoff-hopeful roster is Hicks, whose conversion from reliever to starter hasn’t actually taken. As a reliever, he lived in triple digits and snapped off a hellacious slider beneath the warmth. As a starter, his fastball performed down and he didn’t fairly have sufficient secondaries to steadiness it out. I anticipate the Sox to plug him into the again of the bullpen when he returns from the IL, the place he’s been since June 1 due to an infected toe. In fact, the largest purpose Hicks is on this deal might be wage; he’s due $32 million by way of 2027. He may nonetheless be a real asset within the bullpen, although; at his peak, he was completely dominant.

The Sox shopped in amount extra so than high quality right here; in addition they bought Bello, a 2023 worldwide signee who regarded sharp within the DSL final yr. Right here’s Longenhagen on Bello:

Bello had a dominant second DSL season in 2024 and was pitching within the Giants’ Complicated League rotation in Arizona for the primary a part of 2025 when he was traded to Boston as a part of the package deal for Devers. He has an east/west starter’s combine with very superior command and three doubtlessly common pitches. The very best of those is Bello’s upper-70s slider, which he makes use of most of all, usually as a solution to get forward of hitters. His fastball lives within the 88-92 mph vary more often than not and has sink/tail motion that’s weak to wreck when Bello doesn’t find it. Principally, he does although. For his age, he’s a reasonably exact craftsman who is aware of the best way to begin his sinker above the zone and drop it within the high for wanting strikes. Bello repeats his launch and is a coordinated athlete, however he’s probably not an explosive one. He isn’t all that athletically projectable and isn’t a lock to throw more durable as he matures. He’s going to command his stuff (and possibly add a cutter) en path to a backend starter position, which remains to be years away.

And if, like me, you’re a visible learner, right here he’s pitching in 2025:

As you possibly can see from the timelines of the gamers we’re speaking about right here, none of those guys are more likely to make a big impact on the 2025 Crimson Sox. That’s what I don’t get about this commerce. We’re speaking a couple of workforce that, not less than on the floor, is making an attempt to compete each now and sooner or later. They’ve among the best farm methods in baseball, with each top-end expertise and depth. They consolidated a few of that worth over the offseason by buying and selling for Garrett Crochet, however they nonetheless entered the season with a whole lot of prospects however not sufficient locked-in contributors. Would Trevor Story rebound? Lucas Giolito? Casas?

Now, the Crimson Sox nonetheless have an ideal farm system. They replenished a few of their depth from this commerce. In addition they have monetary flexibility, that vaunted commodity that led them to commerce Mookie Betts earlier than the 2020 season. Final time, they used that cash to signal… nicely, to signal Rafael Devers. In the event that they’re fortunate, maybe one among their mega-prospects (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell) might be nearly as good as Devers within the remaining accounting. However even then, for a way lengthy? Campbell is locked up by way of 2034, however the different two aren’t, and in the event that they find yourself nearly as good as Devers, they’ll command large contracts too.

I’m being harsh right here, as a result of the {dollars} do matter – Devers’ deal is lengthy sufficient, and his defensive worth is shaky sufficient, that the previous couple of years of it is going to most likely sting. Have a look at trades and free agent contracts in recent times, although, and you’ll see {that a} dry “X WAR for Y {dollars}” accounting of the state of affairs doesn’t accurately seize groups’ conduct and incentives. Groups overpay the mannequin for superstars, as a result of you possibly can’t construct a workforce out of surplus worth. It’s nice to have 26 2-WAR gamers making the league minimal, however that’s not a playoff workforce even when it’s a best-financial-value world-beater. The truth is, you possibly can consider these cost-controlled gamers as permitting groups to splurge on stars. Should you’re filling out most of your roster in a cheap method, you possibly can go all out with {dollars} to squeeze as a lot WAR as attainable into the famous person spots. The excellent news is, each workforce will get to draft or signal amateurs, so the cost-controlled surplus worth spigot is self-replenishing. The famous person spigot, alternatively, flows solely hardly ever.

That’s the pondering in San Francisco. They spent the 2022-23 and 2023-24 offseasons making an attempt to shoot the moon; they reportedly provided Aaron Decide and Shohei Ohtani roughly equal contracts to those they signed with their present groups. When these two spurned their advances, they made some secondary signings, Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Jung Hoo Lee, and Justin Verlander distinguished amongst them. They didn’t achieve assembling a dominant offense, although, and so they additionally had payroll room – in spite of everything, they cleared a ton of cash that they didn’t spend. They got here into the yr with the 14th-largest payroll in baseball, lower than a workforce of their stature must be spending in my view. Now they’ve added one other locked-in roster spot, a star of the sport who elevates their lineup.

Particularly, Devers goes to raise their lineup by changing the largest black gap on the roster, first base. Giants first basemen have an mixture 82 wRC+ this yr, twenty fifth in baseball. Now, Devers famously isn’t going to play first base this yr (extra on that under) and third base is occupied, however I feel he’ll doubtless contemplate a place change within the offseason, and within the fast future, the Giants can merely shift DH Wilmer Flores (112 wRC+, significantly better) to first.

Dan Szymborski produced two ZiPS projections for me. First, Devers in San Francisco as a primary baseman:

Second, as a full-time DH:

There are marginal variations round positional changes and the DH hitting penalty, however the gist is that ZiPS – and customary sense – anticipate Devers to be one of many higher hitters within the sport for the subsequent 4 to 5 years, steadily trending downwards as he ages. The final 4 years of his deal make it in order that – as Jeff Passan put it – “each mannequin in baseball has (the contract) as underwater.” The entrance half of it, alternatively? Clearly a very good deal.

There are two large questions on this deal, and so they’re very completely different ones. The primary considerations the off-field drama that occurred between Devers and the entrance workplace earlier this yr. When the Sox signed Bregman, they requested Devers to play DH as a substitute of his long-time place of third base. He hemmed and hawed and complained about it earlier than finally complying. Then, when Casas went down with a season-ending damage, GM Craig Breslow requested Devers to study first base to ease the positional logjam. Devers declined, setting off one other wave of consternation.

I wasn’t within the room for these discussions. I don’t know who was unreasonable and who bought misrepresented in public. However I’ll say this: Once you by some means flip a whole nothing – our so-so defender wants to maneuver to a much less demanding defensive place – right into a battle large enough that it results in you buying and selling your franchise cornerstone, within the midst of a playoff chase, for future issues, you’ve clearly performed a poor job in communication and disaster administration. I nonetheless don’t perceive how the Crimson Sox maintain getting themselves in positions the place they take a look at their finest gamers and determine they should do away with them, but when somebody tries to persuade you that the 2025 Crimson Sox bought higher with this commerce, I feel laughing is an acceptable response. That’s not what’s happening right here. No matter who was proper, no matter whether or not Devers was being cussed or Breslow unreasonable, the entrance workplace already failed. They failed after they let some sideshow, the distinction between Devers at first base and Devers at DH, finish in buying and selling him. The purpose of baseball is to construct an ideal workforce and win the World Collection. You don’t should level blame to at least one or the opposite to say that issues went off the rails when what began as a positional tiff ends with you buying and selling one among your finest gamers for wage aid.

The second large query is one I’ve been answering in components all through this text: Must you look to dollars-per-WAR calculations and surplus worth and say that this commerce is a house run for the Crimson Sox, or do you have to take a look at every workforce’s playoff odds in 2025 and say the Giants fleeced them? I land someplace within the center, however nearer to the second viewpoint. Sure, Devers’ deal might be “underwater” from a surplus worth standpoint when it’s all mentioned and performed. No, that doesn’t change how good he’s more likely to be within the subsequent few years. No, signing an enormous contract doesn’t preclude groups from signing different gamers or placing a profitable membership on the sphere. Folks have been alternately calling the contracts of Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Mookie Betts “overpays” on and off for practically a decade now, and their groups simply proceed to be glorious. These groups additionally proceed to be extraordinarily completely happy to make use of their stars – the Padres even gave Machado one other “overpay” of an extension.

Apply some premium to the distinction between a very good participant and a star, and I feel this commerce finally ends up proper round worth impartial, possibly a small win for the Crimson Sox. However that ignores the place that every workforce is in. The Giants will get a ton of worth from Devers in 2025 alone; they’re in playoff place however want extra offense to be ok with their possibilities. In the meantime, the Crimson Sox are half a sport out of the final Wild Card spot. I like their odds fairly a bit much less now that they’re changing Devers’ bat with that of Romy Gonzalez or David Hamilton.

It’s all nicely and good to construct a pleasant farm system and at all times prioritize flexibility, the underside line, a self-sustaining machine that may devour the baseball world and spit out championship groups on league-minimum salaries. However what about this yr? Jarren Duran is 29 and getting dearer. Bregman is already 31, and he can choose out of his deal after this yr if he desires – and relying on how the damage shakes out, I anticipate he’ll, given his stellar begin. The Sox swung a blockbuster for Crochet this offseason, and he’s presently wholesome, by no means a assure with pitchers generally and Crochet particularly. One sixth of the workforce management years of Anthony and Mayer will come this yr (or maybe barely much less, relying on Tremendous 2 standing). This can be a unusual season to be punting; the Sox have a ton of excellent gamers who won’t be round all that lengthy, and so they simply traded their finest present hitter away as a substitute of sticking with the present workforce.

I hated it when the Crimson Sox made an analogous transfer in buying and selling away Betts. I hate when the Orioles hedge as a substitute of including, enjoying for the long run as the current slips away. I hate that the Crimson Sox appear to not care about making the playoffs – they haven’t been since 2021, and but they’re not exhibiting a lot urgency to get again. That’s what actually bothers me about this commerce. It’s not the foolish backwards and forwards between Devers and the entrance workplace. It’s not the refrain of quantity crunchers asserting that Devers is a nasty worth. It’s not the commodification of baseball contracts and gamers – although to be truthful, it’s partially that. My major criticism is that groups are too prepared to disregard the current even when it makes little or no sense to take action. So good work, Giants, for locating a famous person who matches together with your workforce’s present window and can instantly enhance your outlook for the subsequent handful of years. And unhealthy work, Crimson Sox, for twisting your self right into a place the place you commerce a franchise cornerstone whilst you’re above .500 and scrambling for playoff relevance. Generally it doesn’t have to be extra sophisticated than that.