Gavin Lux Has Let It Rip

The Dodgers constructed up a formidable seven-game NL West lead over the primary half of the season. Whereas they needed to stand up to a late cost by the Padres — whom they’ll face in a Division Sequence that begins on Saturday, a rematch of the 2022 pairing that ended up sending a 111-win Dodgers squad residence — they have been ready to take action regardless of their beginning pitching fraying on the seams. Even earlier than Mookie Betts and Max Muncy returned from prolonged absences resulting from accidents, the emergence of Gavin Lux as an offensive power performed a key function within the group’s second-half offensive uptick.

Lux’s general numbers for 2024 — .251/.320/.383 with 10 residence runs — don’t scan as notably particular. Dragged down by a September hunch that he started to emerge from throughout the season’s remaining week, he completed with a modest 100 wRC+. Based mostly on his general batted ball knowledge, together with a .262 xBA and a .393 xSLG, it’s robust to make the case that he ought to have carried out significantly better. The important thing level is that he needed to hit nicely sufficient to get his head again above water after a gradual begin that seemed as if it may cost a little him his spot within the lineup.

The Dodgers have proven nice endurance with the 26-year-old Lux, each up to now and this season. A 2016 first-round pick of a Kenosha, Wisconsin highschool, he positioned second on our High 100 Prospects listing as a 70-FV prospect 4 years later (behind solely Wander Franco). Whereas he had already debuted within the majors the earlier September, he didn’t get a foothold till 2021, and wanted a powerful September to stop that season from being a disappointment, although interruptions resulting from wrist and hamstring accidents most likely performed a component in his woes.

Lux lastly spent a full season within the majors in 2022, hitting a good .276/.346/.399 (113 wRC+) whereas splitting time between second base and left discipline. The Dodgers deliberate to maneuver him again to shortstop for the 2023 season after Trea Turner departed in free company, however on February 27, 2023, he misplaced his stability whereas working to second base, and took a spill. He got here up clutching his proper knee; he had torn his anterior cruciate ligament in addition to his lateral collateral ligament. His season was over earlier than it had begun; he underwent surgical procedure on March 7.

The lack of Lux led the Dodgers to play light-hitting Miguel Rojas at shortstop frequently, with a handful of different gamers — Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernández, and Amed Rosario — pitching in. Essentially the most attention-grabbing of them was Betts; the six-time Gold Glove proper fielder, who initially got here up as a second baseman with the Pink Sox, moved again to the center infield in midseason when the Dodgers demoted rookie Miguel Vargas. Betts not solely made 62 begins at second base, he began 12 at shortstop, a place he’d solely briefly dabbled at within the low minors, and he seemed like a pure.

The Dodgers deliberate to maintain Betts at second base for 2024, however Lux’s defensive struggles within the spring — particularly along with his throwing, an issue that had intermittently reared its head earlier in his profession — led them to rethink their plan. With the group’s Opening Day in Seoul, South Korea simply 12 days away, supervisor Dave Roberts determined to take some strain off Lux by shifting him again to second, with Betts going to shortstop, a call each gamers accepted.

“Simply to make this transfer proper now, it’s one thing that your complete group feels is the precise factor to do to offer us the perfect probability to stop runs and to win baseball video games,” Roberts mentioned. “Particular to Gavin, it provides him a possibility to get to the opposite aspect of the diamond… So to get him again over there, shorten the throw, it ought to be much less of a toll on his physique general and provides him a possibility to have success.”

Lux’s fielding proved much less of an issue than his hitting, as he collected simply eight hits in his first 16 video games. Even whereas largely being shielded from lefties (simply 13 of 83 plate appearances), he completed the month batting .182/.241/.208 (31 wRC+) with a pair of doubles being his solely extra-base hits. As he struggled, Roberts maintained that the group would stick by him, giving him an opportunity to regulate after such a protracted layoff. “I don’t suppose that might be honest to anybody, to be fairly sincere,” mentioned Roberts of judging Lux too harshly too early, citing 150 plate appearances as a good pattern.

Lux improved considerably in Might (90 wRC+) however regressed once more in June (67 wRC+). He had blown nicely previous the 150-PA mark, however his general numbers nonetheless seemed ugly. After slumping via the primary half of July, he reached the All-Star break with a .213/.267/.295 slash line and simply three homers in 277 PA. Amongst gamers with not less than 250 PA in both league, solely 5 out of 207 had a decrease wRC+ than his 60. By his Statcast anticipated numbers, he wasn’t fairly getting his cash’s value, however even these (.251 xBA, .353 xSLG, .289 xwOBA) have been nothing to put in writing residence about. Solely strong protection and projections for optimistic regression saved him off my Substitute Degree Killers listing, but it surely appeared fairly attainable the Dodgers — who by this level have been with out each Muncy, who had strained an indirect in mid-Might, and Betts, who had suffered a fractured left hand after being hit by a pitch in mid-June — would store for an improve forward of the July 30 deadline, notably with each Taylor and Hernández struggling as nicely.

Throughout the All-Star break, Lux went residence to Wisconsin, the place in response to The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya he labored along with his uncle, Augie Schmidt, a former Golden Spikes Award winner and minor league infielder who has served because the longtime coach at Kenosha’s Carthage School. Reviewing footage of Lux’s higher days, the coach and hitter concluded that he wanted to generate extra energy, and to place extra belief in his surgically repaired proper knee. “Collectively, they seemed again at his greatest swings. They have been violent, seeking to generate slug extra than simply placing the ball in play,” Ardaya wrote. “To generate the power he needed, he was going to must depend on flexing out, or ‘locking out’ his proper leg.”

“He’s like, ‘Screw it. If I’m happening, I’m happening aggressive,’” hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc informed Ardaya. “I feel there’s some freedom in that.”

The change in mindset rapidly paid off. Lux collected a number of hits in 5 of his first seven begins within the second half, and hit residence runs in back-to-back video games for the primary time all season on July 20 and 21 in Boston; he earned NL Participant of the Week honors for that stretch. The Dodgers reacquired Rosario and added a rehabbing Tommy Edman on the commerce deadline, however Lux continued to rake. Rosario made simply two begins at second base earlier than being designated for project; because it turned out, these two video games have been the one ones wherein the Dodgers confronted lefty starters in a 22-game span. Betts returned on August 12, without any consideration fielder, with Rojas retaking the shortstop job after his personal IL stint, and Muncy returned on August 19.

Lux hit .333/.403/.610 with seven homers from the All-Star break via the tip of August, a month throughout which the Dodgers went 19-8 however solely elevated their division lead from 4.5 video games to 6. His 180 wRC+ over that stretch ranked seventh within the majors behind some actual thumpers: Aaron Choose, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, and Lawrence Butler. Inevitably, he cooled off, with a 4-for-44 slide (all singles) from September 6 to 24, however he appeared to proper the ship within the remaining days of the season, going 7-for-16 with two doubles in 4 video games towards the Padres and Rockies. Total, he had the Thirteenth-highest wRC+ of any participant in both league after the All-Star break:

Among the many Dodgers, solely Ohtani and Muncy have been hotter, which has helped to offset extra tepid second-half showings by a few of the offense’s different stalwarts:

These gamers have given pitchers few locations to cover; over the course of the second half the Dodgers cranked out 5.58 runs per recreation, up from an already sturdy 4.94 per recreation within the first half, offsetting a rise in runs allowed per recreation from 4.03 to 4.53.

Statcast’s new-fangled bat-tracking knowledge illustrate Lux’s growing tendency to let ‘er rip:

Lux added 1.6 mph to his common bat velocity after the All-Star break, and kind of doubled his price of quick swings (75 mph or sooner). He didn’t sq. up balls with fairly the identical frequency, which is to say that he didn’t attain not less than 80% of the utmost exit velocity attainable based mostly on the pitch and swing speeds, however he did enhance his blast price, which pairs a quick swing with a squared-up outcome. You may see that the distinction was a bit extra dramatic when evaluating his first half to the aforementioned post-break, pre-September stretch, however not by that a lot. As for the standard of contact, anticipated and precise outcomes, the splits by half are night time and day:

Lux’s common exit velocity improved by practically three miles an hour, his barrel price practically tripled, and his xSLG rose by practically 100 factors. He did whiff and strike out extra usually (for the latter, the break up was 20.6% versus 25.2%), however that was a small worth to pay for such sturdy manufacturing. Because the desk exhibits, his common launch angle rose a bit, however the extra conventional batted ball stats truly spell out the development extra clearly:

Lux hit the ball within the air much more regularly, and he even averted popping up as usually whereas doing that. What’s most attention-grabbing is his dramatically improved pull price, which for some cause doesn’t present as much as practically the identical diploma in his Sports activities Data Options splits (37.3% first half, 39.2% second half). Significantly as a result of we are able to get a twig chart visible from Statcast to help the above numbers, I’m sticking with these for my evaluation. Statcast separates popups (caught by infielders) from fly balls (caught by outfielders) as an alternative of mixing them as SIS does (with infield fly ball price then damaged out as a subset of fly balls), so within the desk above I’ve aggregated these two. Listed below are the aforementioned spray charts:

Have a look at all these doubles down the precise discipline line within the second half, to not point out the loud fly balls. When Lux reached the warning monitor within the first half, it was up the center or to the other discipline, and it virtually by no means went out, whereas when he hit it far within the second half, he did extra injury.

Pitch-type clever, Lux has struggled towards breaking balls all season (.168 AVG, .244 SLG), however he’s gone from weak performances towards four-seamers and sinkers (.222 AVG/.297 SLG for the previous, .267/.378 for the latter) to annihilating them (.429 AVG/.714 SLG for the previous, .444/1.056 for the latter), and he’s improved equally towards cutters and splitters.

For all of his in-season enchancment, Lux was principally an computerized out towards lefties (.152/.220/.174, 17 wRC+ in 50 PA), and that didn’t actually change throughout his grip-it-and-rip-it section (2-for-22 with 11 Ks), however the excellent news for him is that except the Padres begin Martín Pérez — who’s an enormous step down from Dylan Stop, Michael King, Yu Darvish, and the injured Joe Musgrove — the Dodgers gained’t face any southpaw starters within the Division Sequence. In Adrian Morejon, Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta, and Tanner Scott, San Diego has no scarcity of lefty bullpen choices if supervisor Mike Shildt wants a good matchup, however Roberts has his personal levers to tug if that’s the case, with Enrique Hernández the more than likely possibility. I wouldn’t count on Lux to hold the Dodgers via the Division Sequence by any means, however his in-season enchancment has lengthened their lineup, and he might nicely show to be a kind of low-in-the-lineup difference-makers that separate the winners from the losers in October.