I wrote, not that way back, that the nook infield and designated hitter spots weren’t being taken as critically because the ought to be by way of locations the Cincinnati Reds ought to be trying to enhance. Many of the focus has landed on the outfield. However I’m additionally conscious that final 12 months is unlikely to repeat itself. Every year is all the time totally different, you already know. So I assumed it is perhaps an attention-grabbing train to take the a set of presently accessible projections for each present Reds gamers and free brokers and see the place Cincinnati may goal cash to get the most effective likelihood of serious enchancment.
Okay, off we go.
For this train, I’m utilizing the Steamer 600 projections which places everybody on a degree discipline for taking part in time. Sure, I do know projections are imperfect and so forth. We’re all imperfect. Projections, are, at the very least, dispassionate. Additionally, I believe it’s vital to do not forget that protection issues each methods. Aside from third base and heart discipline, all of the positions we’re discussing listed below are low-value defensively. Which means a hitter must be not simply common, however properly above common to supply important worth at these spots.
Reds Outfielders:
TJ Friedl, 2.2 WAR
Jake Fraley, 1.0 WAR
Will Benson, 0.6 WAR
Reds Nook IF/DH:
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 1.3 WAR
Santiago Espinal, 1.3 WAR
Jeimer Candelario, 0.6 WAR
Noelvi Marte, 0.4 WAR
Spencer Steer Performs All over the place Group:
Coloration me shocked that the projections suppose Espinal is the most suitable choice at third base. Although that’s extra an indictment of the opposite choices. Assuming Cincinnati discover a platoon associate for Fraley, DH appears to be the largest weak point on the crew (and the Reds have been god-awful there final 12 months).
DH as a the weak spot implies that it doesn’t actually matter the place a free agent acquisition performs. It issues that he can hit. So who’re the most effective projected hitters of the present non-Soto free agent crop? Do remember that, like most projection techniques, Steamer pulls issues to the imply. These guys are glorious hitters and all 30+, so the projections will are available in south of their profession numbers.
Greatest Hitting Non-Soto Free Brokers (listed by projected wRC+)
Pete Alonso, 1B, 125 wRC+
Joc Pederson, OF/DH, 125 wRC+
Alex Bregman, 3B, 122 wRC+
Anthony Santander, OF, 119 wRC+
Christian Walker, 1B, 119 wRC+
Jesse “Born to DH” Winker, “OF”, 117 wRC+
Jurickson Profar, OF, 116 wRC+
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, 113 wRC+
FanGraphs offers us with crowdsourced guesses as to what every participant will get within the free agent market (and the FanGraphs crowd has traditionally been fairly good at guessing), and it thinks all of those guys will be had for about $15-$20M per season EXCEPT for Bregman and Alonso, who’re within the $25M/season neighborhood. AND aside from Winker and his requisite baggage who the group thinks you possibly can have for beneath $10M/12 months.
Bregman can be nice, however appears unlikely except the Reds are able to fully quit on Marte. Bregman is a wonderful third baseman and there’s no cause for a crew signing him to attempt to transfer him.
Alonso, then again, appears like he is perhaps well worth the cash. I don’t suppose they’re prone to signal him, however I do suppose he would hit roughly a million dwelling runs in Cincinnati.
Everybody else is fairly interchangeable. I’d be tempted to go along with Pederson, who’s probably the most bat-forward of the remaining crew, however you actually can’t go incorrect. The Reds ought to simply go get one in every of these guys. And even two. Nevertheless a lot we is perhaps contaminated with the “small-market” mind illness, $15-20M/season is simply not that a lot in fashionable baseball. There’s no cause the Reds can’t enter the 2025 season with a considerably bolstered lineup. They shouldn’t be keen to discipline a lineup that features automated outs like they’d a lot of final 12 months.
