A mishmash of batting common and energy.
Josh Naylor‘s energy was at its greatest ever in the course of the first half, after which it took a trip the remainder of the best way, because it returned to the degrees we initially forecasted. His full season Statcast metrics don’t help the elevated house run energy, as his maxEV was really at its lowest since a tiny 2020 pattern, whereas his Barrel% was proper consistent with the earlier two seasons. If he does flip again into his pre-2024 model early on, he may fall again into a powerful facet platoon function, hampering his counting stats. The transfer to the Diamondbacks may exacerbate his HR/FB price regression.
I’m at all times hesitant to rank a hitter so reliant on batting common the place he belongs based mostly on the forecast. There’s simply so little margin for error if you sport a profession 3.8% HR/FB price. And form of poor BABIP luck and also you’re going to seek out your self swimming within the free agent pool. Luis Arraez did steal a profession excessive 9 bases in 2024, which matched his mixed complete from the previous three seasons. Does he do it once more? It’ll definitely add a pair bucks to his worth if he may. In any other case, he’s only a batting common ans barely above common runs scored man, that means you’ll want your energy from elsewhere if he’s your beginning first baseman.
All of us preserve ready for Alec Bohm to expertise an influence spike, proper?! His ISO did inch as much as one other profession greatest, however his HR/FB price really fell again into single digits. It’s weird, as a result of his HardHit% and maxEV are nicely above the league common and counsel considerably higher energy output. Nevertheless, he merely doesn’t barrel the ball regularly sufficient, however that would change, after all. The opposite abilities all stay secure and are stable, so it simply comes right down to betting on an influence surge coming in some unspecified time in the future.
Harm restricted Christian Encarnacion-Strand to simply 123 PAs and he was terrible earlier than his season was reduce brief. The upside stays, although. He has posted a 20%+ HR/FB price at each skilled cease, and a persistently excessive BABIP ought to assist offset a few of the sting of his probably excessive strikeout price. That ought to lead to a suitable batting common, moderately than a killer mark. The potential is there for him to earn considerably extra worth than this rank, however it’s greatest to remain cautiously optimistic.
Simply as his xwOBA screamed, Cody Bellinger‘s efficiency collapsed in 2024, as his BABIP regressed to his profession common and his HR/FB price couldn’t keep in double digits paired with mediocre Statcast metrics. On the constructive facet, he’ll nonetheless on the appropriate facet of 30, continues to steal bases, and sustained his strikeout price enchancment, precisely matching his 2023 mark, which was a profession greatest. That is nonetheless a stable all-around fantasy profile and clearly there’s upside for higher. The transfer to the Yankees ought to considerably enhance his HR/FB price potential and residential run upside.
It will be good if Yandy DÃaz‘s energy remained constant. As an alternative, his HR/FB price has yo-yo’d up and down, regardless of sturdy Statcast metrics. There’s little question that he hits the ball laborious — he ranked nineteenth in HardHit% and sixth in maxEV amongst certified hitters in 2024. He simply hits a comparatively low price of fly balls, and when he does, they generally simply haven’t gone out on the similar price as in different seasons. There’s no motive to assume he couldn’t attain the 20-homer plateau once more.
Yeah, you’re in all probability taking part in Yainer Diaz at catcher, particularly given the value you’ll find yourself paying for him. Nevertheless, his mixture of batting common and energy make him helpful whilst a primary baseman. He couldn’t maintain his 2023 energy output, as his ISO and HR/FB price each plunged. It was totally because of a drop in Barrel%, as each his HardHit% and maxEV have been really increased. That’s an excellent signal that his energy will at the very least partially rebound.
Sure, it’s odd that the 2 catcher-eligible names on these rankings are back-to-back, however that’s simply how the cookie crumbled. Salvador Perez refuses to expertise any form of age-related decline, as his strikeout price really completed at its greatest since 2017, whereas his Barrel% was third highest of his profession. Even his stroll price notched a brand new excessive! Every thing appears to be like good right here, however do do not forget that he’ll be 35 for a lot of the 2025 season.
