Final week, I shared the tip of season rankings and greenback values of the 40 first basemen I ranked in the course of the preseason. I started with the hitters that earned a revenue of not less than $4 on their projected worth, after which shared the hitters that took a lack of not less than $8 versus their projected worth. At the moment, let’s talk about the unranked — these hitters who didn’t make my prime 40, however discovered themselves inside the highest 40 most useful first basemen on the finish of the season.
First Base Rankings Evaluation – The Unranked
There have been 5 further hitters within the prime 40 (Brendan Donovan, Tyler Stephenson, Connor Wong, Brandon Lowe, Dylan Moore), however these names all qualify at positions you’d nearly assuredly play them at as a substitute, so I left them out of this dialogue.
A whopping 12 years after he made his MLB debut, Jurickson Profar lastly loved the breakout 12 months everybody anticipated from the one-time prime prospect again within the early 2010s. What’s attention-grabbing right here is that just about all his metrics completed at ranges he’s reached earlier than, so it actually was only a matter of placing all the things collectively in the identical season. He did set a few profession bests, however probably the most obvious one was his BABIP, at .302. Extremely, that is the primary time in his whole profession that he posted a .300+ BABIP! He lower down on his IFFB%, which improved to a profession greatest, although his LD% additionally fell to the second lowest of his profession, so I’m undecided his batted ball profile was really any higher. Talking of which, he additionally barely set a brand new profession excessive in FB%, which usually can be a unfavourable for BABIP.
His energy, each from an ISO and HR/FB perspective, rebounded of a sequence of down years, however he was really at this stage and higher again in 2018 and 2019. So that is nothing new, but it surely did include by far his highest HardHit%, and a brand new profession greatest Barrel%. It nearly looks like he deserved even higher energy outcomes! He additionally returned to double digit steals, boosting his fantasy worth even additional.
Total, I’m undecided why he out of the blue put all of it collectively this 12 months, and I’d guess that this finally ends up being his dream season, by no means to be repeated once more. With none really standout abilities, it gained’t take a lot to fall again right into a borderline shallow league possibility that will get added and dropped as he hits sizzling streaks and slumps subsequent 12 months.
With only a .319 wOBA, this wasn’t precisely an actual baseball breakout for Alec Burleson. His stroll fee dipped from an already too low determine, whereas his strikeout fee remained steady, which is definitely a great factor, because it’s implausible. He additionally posted a virtually an identical batted ball profile, aside from extra pop-ups. His BABIP barely elevated from nicely under common to only under common, his HardHit% barely inched up, his maxEV was almost the identical, his Barrel% was barely larger, as was his ISO. He was nearly the very same participant as final 12 months, besides he upped his HR/FB fee from simply 8.2% to 12%. That led to a greater house run fee, however no more general energy, oddly sufficient.
He additionally elevated his stolen base frequency, as these 9 steals had been a shock and added to his worth. And since he places the ball in play so typically, what seems to be only a marginally elevated BABIP really resulted in his batting common rising from simply .244 to .269, which is definitely constructive worth today.
This isn’t a really thrilling talent set. I like the strikeout fee, but it surely’s extra as a result of he’s a free-swinger, somewhat than making elite contact (although his SwStk% has remained in single digits). His HardHit% and maxEV recommend he most likely has extra energy in his bat to up that Barrel%, and that will get me if he might keep the strikeout fee.
Who wants Brett Baty when you will have Mark Vientos?! Even with simply 454 PAs, he managed to rank twentieth amongst first basemen and earn $7. Whereas he continued to swing and miss typically, that was offset this time by an enormous BABIP surge. Nonetheless, Statcast’s xBA suggests a lot of that was success, which suggests a .266 batting common is unlikely to be repeated with out an enchancment in strikeout fee.
Nonetheless, the thrilling factor right here is the ability. With a wonderful HardHit% and maxEV, he was capable of increase his Barrel% to a close to elite stage, driving a HR/FB fee that ranked third highest amongst hitters with not less than 450 PAs. Whereas it’s a must to assume some regression there, he ought to be a lock for not less than a low-20% HR/FB fee subsequent 12 months, which ought to make him a great wager for 30+ dingers. In fact, with no velocity and a batting common more likely to fall, his upside is that of only a two-category contributor.
When the Cubs acquired Michael Busch, we assumed they had been doing so with the intention of giving him a beginning job, however that was no certain factor. The staff nonetheless had former prime prospect Matt Mervis, however the staff clearly soured on him and he did nothing at Triple-A this 12 months to persuade them he has a future with the staff. Fortunately, Busch was up for the job to play usually at first base.
What I like right here is that though he struck out at a high-20% fee, he really posted a really stable 11.5% SwStk%, suggesting both he was a bit too passive, which led to each extra walks and strikeouts, or he simply had dangerous sequencing luck and is due for a greater strikeout fee subsequent season. Both method, it’s a great signal that his strikeout fee shouldn’t get any worse, not less than.
His profile was attention-grabbing, as he posted a pleasant batted ball distribution for an influence hitter, barely leaning towards a flyball tendency. Nonetheless, the house run energy was above common, however nothing particular. It got here was a sub-110 MPH maxEV, a good, however not nice, HardHit%, but a double digit Barrel%. It’s a bizarre combo. He additionally added a .322 BABIP, which is a shock, because the batted ball profile doesn’t recommend an above common mark, although he’s achieved that for his whole minor league profession. His Statcast xBA does recommend he was fairly fortunate with the BABIP, so he’ll probably have to up the ability to be worthy of your fantasy roster subsequent 12 months if the batting common falls.
Carlos Santana continues to be taking part in?! His abilities have been extremely constant, so the belief this 12 months was that sooner or later, the dramatic decline needed to come. Clearly this wasn’t the season that was going to occur. He posted comparable fantasy stats to his 2023, although worse runs scored and RBI numbers, and but nonetheless snuck into the highest 30 first baseman, making his deep league house owners, notably these in OBP codecs, fairly happy. Whereas there are small indicators of decline, like an elevated SwStk% the final two seasons, there’s actually nothing else to recommend he’s prepared to hold up his cleats.
It wasn’t straightforward holding Luke Raley in a fantasy lineup in weekly transaction leagues as he was a real platooner and recorded simply 455 PAs. However he proved his 2023 was no fluke, even upping his HR/FB fee. Given his elite maxEV, I’d have anticipated the next HardHit% and Barrel%, however each are stable sufficient to imagine he’s a legit excessive teenagers/low-20 HR/FB fee man. He did lose some FB% although, which lower into his house run whole. Oddly, his batted ball distribution was far superior to his 2023, however his BABIP really fell.
To go together with the ability, he swiped 11 bases, which was lower than 2023’s whole of 14, however nonetheless ok to spice up his fantasy worth and provides him a 20/10 season.
The opposite abilities ain’t so nice, as he not often walks, and swings and misses typically. Simply his SwStk%, mixed together with his sub-30% strikeout fee, it’s clear that it is a free swinger who would strike out much more if he owned higher plate endurance, which might additionally improve his stroll fee. Given his age and platoon standing, I don’t see a lot upside from right here, however he makes for an affordable energy possibility in deep leagues.
Michael Toglia was most likely the quietest 25-home run season in fairly a while. Not solely did he knock 25 dingers, however he additionally stole 10 bases! And whereas these totals are nice, little else was right here, and his splits had been completely weird.
Toglia’s energy was totally supported by elite Statcast numbers, together with the sixth highest Barrel% amongst these with not less than 450 PAs. He took full benefit of his energy by posting a FB% over 40%, which is precisely what you wish to see, particularly from a hitter who performs half his video games in a park that reinforces house runs. However oddly, his energy output was considerably on the street! He posted a .286 ISO there, versus only a .189 mark at Coors Area, whereas his HR/FB fee stood at 27% and 17.8%, respectively. You don’t see hitters hit for a lot extra energy away from Coors fairly often, if in any respect.
The world will get again so as when his BABIP splits although. He posted a .333 mark at house, versus only a .207 mark on the street. That lastly is smart! However it makes him robust to platoon in your lineup for those who had deliberate to solely begin your Coors hitters at house or had not less than one homestand in the course of the week. That mentioned, one 12 months is hardly a sufficiently big pattern dimension to definitively say Toglia hits for extra energy on the street than at Coors.
Toglia is a tricky one to financial institution on subsequent season because the Rockies always make head-scratching lineup selections. So it’s actually tough to belief he’ll be a starter all 12 months, and given his excessive strikeout fee, might simply get relegated to the bench after an prolonged hunch.
After a mini breakout in 2023, Ryan O’Hearn was wanting on the potential for a bigger position in 2024. Nonetheless, with Ryan Mountcastle at first base and a flurry of children within the system, it was laborious to foretell how his taking part in time would shake out. O’Hearn did his half by proving his 2023 was no fluke, although the form of his efficiency was fairly completely different than anticipated.
This 12 months, his energy declined, as his HardHit% hit a profession low, whereas his Barrel% plummeted. As a substitute, he ended up making considerably extra contact, pushing down his SwStk% into single digits for the primary time, which resulted in an enormous enchancment in strikeout fee. He additionally upped his stroll fee, driving a profession greatest OBP, save for his 2018 small pattern debut.
This wasn’t a greater O’Hearn, only a very completely different one than anybody anticipated. Since his BABIP additionally fell, he suffered a drop in batting common, so all the advantages of the a lot improved strikeout fee had been missed by fantasy house owners.
Whereas O’Hearn has now been a wonderfully acceptable hitter these previous two seasons, the Orioles are loaded with younger expertise that want a beginning lineup spot, making it unfortunate he earns wherever close to the identical taking part in time once more subsequent 12 months.
