First Base 2024 Fantasy Rankings Review — The Misses

Yesterday, I shared the tip of season rankings and greenback values of the 40 first basemen I ranked throughout the preseason. I started with the hitters that earned a revenue of at the very least $4 on their projected worth. Right now, let’s dive into the misses, or those who earned at the very least $8 lower than forecasted.

As a reminder, I highlighted all of the hits, outlined as those that earned at the very least $4 greater than projected, in yellow, and all of the misses, outlined as those that earned at the very least $8 lower than projected, in pink. These had been arbitrary minimums, however determined upon so I had sufficient gamers to assessment in every bucket.

This was a nasty 12 months for first baseman. Out of the 40 I ranked, a whopping 17 of them incomes at the very least $8 lower than projected! That’s loopy. Much more loopy is that three of the highest 5 names ended up being highlighted in pink. It wasn’t 12 months to purchase a prime tier first baseman.

Freddie Freeman

Freeman misplaced his house owners $17?! Heading into the season, Freeman had been Mr. Consistency, being a lock to contribute a powerful batting common, knock in tons of runs, hit 20 to 30 residence runs, and even chip in some steals. Sadly, he was extra odd than he has been in a very long time. His wOBA fell to its lowest mark since 2015 for a few causes. First, his BABIP declined to his lowest mark since…2012! It’s unbelievable that even an above common .306 mark would symbolize such a disappointment for him. His batted ball distribution was largely the identical, besides his LD% landed on the lowest of his complete profession. So this wasn’t even about dangerous luck, he simply hit the bottom fee of the hit varieties that produce the best BABIP, which is why his xBA was almost an identical to his precise mark.

Except for his batting common, his runs scored complete was at its lowest over a full season since 2015 as effectively. He had recorded effectively over 100 runs in 4 straight full seasons, so a dip all the way in which right down to 81 was fairly the shock.

Freeman will probably be coming into his age 35 season subsequent 12 months and whereas none of his different expertise have cracked, you need to surprise if he’ll be capable of get his LD% again into the mid-to-high 20% vary, the place he’s lived for his complete profession. He’s at all times been elite at hitting line drives, however that simply makes it tougher to maintain.

Matt Olson

Wow. Olson exploded for 54 residence runs in 2023 and posted a .413 wOBA. Clearly, that massively elevated his value this 12 months, so I used to be wanting to see how he’d comply with up. Not solely did he fail to carry onto final 12 months’s good points, however his HR/FB fee truly plunged to a profession worst, whereas his ISO completed simply barely above his profession low set in 2018. That’s positively not what even essentially the most pessimistic of individuals anticipated!

His HardHit% hit the second lowest of his profession, his maxEV completed effectively beneath his final three seasons, and his Barrel%, whereas nonetheless robust, was his lowest since 2018, and the second lowest of his profession. The excellent news is that each different underlying metric was regular, so the disappointing season was pushed completely by the drop in energy. On the very least, he ought to push that HR/FB fee again into the excessive teen vary, just because it higher matches together with his different Statcast metrics and continues to be beneath his profession mark. He would possibly find yourself being barely undervalued subsequent 12 months.

Pete Alonso

After an unsightly .217 batting common in 2023, Alonso’s BABIP totally rebounded, however this time, his energy dropped off. His HR/FB fee and ISO completed at profession lows, although all his Statcast metrics had been comparatively consistent with his historical past. His strikeout fee did leap a bit, however oddly, his SwStk% improved to a profession finest. You don’t see that fairly often!

General, these metrics look completely good to me, so like Olson, would possibly truly turn out to be a slight worth decide subsequent 12 months.

Paul Goldschmidt

His lowest HR/FB fee over a full season since 2014, plus the second lowest BABIP of his profession is already a nasty mixture. Throw in a sudden plunge in stroll fee to by far the bottom of his profession, plus a profession worst strikeout fee, and also you get your self the worst offensive season of his profession.

At age 37 now, is there a risk of a rebound? I fear that the elevated SwStk% and strikeout fee is proof that age is taking a toll. He additionally recorded the best Zone%, which implies pitchers threw him strikes on the highest fee of his profession, and but he couldn’t take benefit. Maybe there’s a minor useless cat bounce, however he’s clearly not a reputation you’re excited to depart your draft with as your beginning first baseman.

Nolan Jones

Holy cow, can we simply faux this season by no means occurred? Certain, he battled accidents all through the season, limiting him to simply 297 PAs, however he additionally posted only a .287 wOBA. There have been two critical oddities right here to shortly focus on.

First, he out of the blue grew to become an excessive floor ball hitter, as his GB% shot up above 50%, whereas his FB% slipped beneath 30%. That’s not the way you reap the benefits of Coors Discipline or your energy expertise. Second, his HardHit% was truly larger than in 2023, and whereas his maxEV took a success, it was nonetheless effectively above common. But, his Barrel% plummeted to simply 5.9%, beneath the league common and almost a 3rd of what he posted in 2023. Consequently, his ISO went from .245 in 2023 to simply .094 in 2024!

Was he battling accidents all 12 months that hampered his energy? I do not know, however at his age, you wouldn’t count on him to out of the blue lose it. I do not know what to anticipate subsequent 12 months because the Rockies always shuffled their lineup and Jones performed himself right into a platoon…at finest. He’ll both find yourself being a discount on draft day or again in Triple-A.

Yandy Díaz

Díaz hits the ball so exhausting, as evidenced by his HardHit% and maxEV, however his energy output has been sorely missing, apart from his 2023 season, which raised expectations for this 12 months. The ability expertise are too unstable right here to depend on and at age 33, it’s exhausting to consider he’ll out of the blue flip that obvious energy right into a 30-homer season. Additionally, his as soon as boosted OBP league worth took a success this 12 months as his stroll fee fell to a profession low within the single digits.

Spencer Torkelson

Simply whenever you thought the ability had blossomed, Torkelson reverts proper again to his 2022 self. His HR/FB fee was almost reduce in half, whereas all his Statcast metrics plunged, trying nothing like that of a man who was graded with 55/70 Sport and 70/70 Uncooked Energy marks. Even when he was demoted to Triple-A and spent half the season there, he was mediocre. He truly struck out at his highest fee ever, whereas his energy was consistent with his 2023 Tigers output. That’s higher than what he did with the Tigers in 2024, however not what you’d count on from a former uber prospect returning to the minors.

I don’t know what the problem is right here, however he’ll definitely be low cost sufficient in leagues to invest on subsequent season!

The Injured

Triston Casas struck out extra, however upped his HR/FB fee and primarily produced as anticipated over the half season he performed.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand disillusioned earlier than struggling a wrist damage that knocked him out for the 12 months. Not less than he ought to come cheaper subsequent 12 months and really make for an inexpensive goal.

Sooooo, is Kris Bryant completed? He was terrible when truly taking the sphere this 12 months, as each his strikeout fee and SwStk% skyrocketed. Maybe the accidents grew to become an excessive amount of.

Accidents restricted Anthony Rizzo to simply 375 PAs, however his HR/FB fee hit a profession low, whereas his FB% dropped to the third lowest of his profession, actually hampering his energy output. One time a strong OBP contributor, he doesn’t even have that going for him anymore given a declining stroll fee.

Since 2022, Alex Kirilloff has primarily performed a full season, and has posted a line that might qualify proper at alternative degree in shallow blended leagues, minus the steals. The issue is staying wholesome. I’d additionally wish to see his maintain his FB% good points and enhance that maxEV, because it’s actual exhausting to ship a complete lot of energy when the toughest you possibly can hit the ball is 108+ MPH.

The Poor Performers

Brandon Drury missed time to damage, however how on the earth was he so dangerous when he took the sphere?! He posted an impossibly low .217 wOBA and .058 ISO over 360 PAs after a .339 and .235 mark, respectively, final 12 months. Whaaaaaat?!

Welp, a lot for Driveline Baseball delivering the magic that Ty France wanted to rebound.

After a .295 wOBA in 2023, I assume it wasn’t that stunned that José Abreu was in the end completed as a productive hitter. It was a strong profession José!

Jeimer Candelario missed a while to damage, however a decline in BABIP and weak runs scored and RBI totals killed his worth.

I assume his 2022 half season was the fluke for Joey Meneses, eh? He did not return wherever near that efficiency, and really utterly collapsed on the plate. He in all probability received’t get one other probability.