For the primary time this yr, the RotoGraphs crew launched a proper, organized positional rating collection that we up to date on a weekly foundation throughout spring coaching and thru the season opener. I selected to take possession of the primary base place and you need to refresh your reminiscence of my closing rankings earlier than the season started. Let’s now assessment these closing rankings and the way every of the hitters finally carried out.
First Base Rankings Evaluation
*Utilizing our public sale calculator with these settings, plus adjusting the positional adjustment (the “aPOS” worth) to about 8.55 for all first base eligible hitters with the intention to worth all such hitters strictly as first basemen.
I highlighted all of the hits, outlined as those that earned at the very least $4 greater than projected, in yellow, and all of the misses, outlined as those that earned at the very least $8 lower than projected, in pink. These had been arbitrary minimums, however determined upon so I had sufficient gamers to assessment in every bucket.
This turned out ugly. Take a look at the ocean of pink! In fact, the typical hitter goes to lose cash, thanks primarily to accidents, plus surprises all the time seem, and the worth they earned has to return from someplace, so it reduces the values of everybody else.
Out of the 40 gamers I ranked, simply six of them earned at the very least $4 greater than they had been projected for, and the very best revenue was simply $6! That’s loopy. Let’s now dive into these six names, the few fantasy homeowners had been thrilled to truly personal.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
I wasn’t shocked to get some pushback once I ranked Guerrero Jr. third amongst first baseman. His ADP was 12 spots behind my fourth ranked hitter, Bryce Harper, and simply behind my fifth ranked identify Pete Alonso.
I even acquired a bunch of feedback about his projected worth:
I’ll take Goldy at $16 over Vlad at $27 day-after-day and twice on Sundays
I query his work ethic and want to take the sport significantly.
I see the administration as being the foundation of the issue. They reside analytics and as Yogi Berra stated “you’ll be able to’t assume and hit on the identical time” I feel they gotta let him get again to the fundamentals of in case you assume you’ll be able to hit it, hit it.
Yikes! After a ho-hum 2023, the pessimism was actual. Goldschmidt over Vlad at their respective prices? Oops! I assume his work ethic acquired again on observe and he wakened at some point instantly deciding to take the sport significantly. And Blue Jays administration? They dropped the mathematics, info, and analytics, and advised Vlad to hit the ball if he thinks he might!
However significantly, these feedback are a reminder {that a} good or unhealthy season all the time create narratives to assist clarify the breakout or bust efficiency. Sadly, they’re nearly by no means true, and the participant returns again to his regular efficiency stage the next yr, when a brand new narrative pops up…which is most probably false as effectively. Similar to within the inventory market, when all you learn is unhealthy information on an organization, you understand that unhealthy information is now baked into the value, making it an excellent buy.
This yr, Vlad improved each his strikeout fee and SwStk% to profession bests, whereas he reduce his IFFB% to the second lowest of his profession, en path to a profession excessive BABIP. His xwOBA suggests he was even a bit unfortunate, deserving of a mark simply over .400.
Given his elite maxEV, HardHit%, and Barrel%, it’s laborious to imagine there isn’t one other 20%+ HR/FB fee in his bat once more. I might be shocked if he didn’t report one other 40-homer season.
Anthony Santander
Although he’d been a powerful supply of residence runs and RBI the earlier two seasons, nobody actually wished to depart the public sale with Anthony Santander as their first baseman. Proper? He doesn’t steal bases or hit for common, in order basically a two-category man, there’s simply little pleasure in rostering him.
Then he determined to go nuts with the fly ball fee, upping his FB% to a profession excessive, whereas pairing that together with his second highest HR/FB fee. His strikeout fee additionally rebounded after spiking to a profession worst in 2023, which led to 38 extra fly balls in simply 4 extra at-bats.
Sadly, all these fly balls ruined the remainder of his batted ball distribution. He’s develop into allergic to hitting line drives, and a excessive share of his fly balls have been of the infield selection, that are simple outs. That resulted in an unpleasant .225 BABIP and only a .235 batting common. He did rating a profession excessive 91 runs, so he was fairly darn good within the three classes he contributed on this yr.
Josh Naylor
Who wished a primary baseman who hit 20 residence runs in 2022, 17 residence runs in 2023, and figured to be on the sturdy aspect of a platoon, chopping into his PAs and worth? Naylor wasn’t precisely a well-liked identify on draft day and I thought-about myself getting caught with him on the public sale in my native league. Seems, none of his homeowners acquired caught with him in spite of everything, as he was one of many extra worthwhile hitters on the place this yr.
The large bounce right here was from his HR/FB fee, which spiked to a profession excessive, regardless of his lowest HardHit% and maxEV since 2020, and a Barrel% in keeping with his earlier two seasons. However offsetting a few of that energy improve was a BABIP that fell to a profession low. His batted ball distribution doesn’t look horrible, although did come together with his lowest LD% since his 2019 debut. That stated, he was in all probability deserving of a bit higher destiny on his balls in play.
The elephant within the room right here is his half season splits. Take a look at his month-to-month HR/FB charges under:
That’s a 23.8% HR/FB fee by June, after which a 13.3% mark over the ultimate three months of the season. So this energy outburst was basically only a first half factor. All his different underlying expertise remained comparatively secure throughout every half, so homeowners ended up getting a powered up Naylor within the first three months, after which the Naylor they thought they drafted over the remainder of the season. Given the timing of his outcomes, I’m guessing his worth gained’t be a lot distinction subsequent yr than this one, regardless of coming off 31 residence runs.
He additionally recorded much more PAs, as he confronted left-handers 174 instances this yr, and wasn’t horrible towards them, posting a .311 wOBA. That ought to guarantee he opens the yr with the full-time job, however you by no means know whether or not a stoop would lose him these at-bats. Personally, I feel he’s extra of a mid-20s residence run man over an identical variety of PAs, which stays a playable, however nearer to the underside tier of first baseman in shallow blended leagues.
Spencer Steer
I hate getting Steer unsuitable as I used to be down on him in comparison with ADP due to his xwOBA overperformance in 2023 and the glut of startable hitters on the Reds roster. Fortunately for Steer, the glut labored itself out, as a suspension and accidents ensured he performed commonly all yr.
He did slide offensively, and relatively considerably so, as his wOBA plummeted from .355 to only .316. So in that respect, I used to be proper to be skeptical. His BABIP and batting common additionally plunged, as I suspected they may. Nevertheless, he ran extra usually and ended up stealing 10 extra bases than final yr, whereas succeeding at an elite clip. It could have been one of many quietest 20/20 seasons of the yr.
Although he batted simply .225, he nonetheless contributed barely constructive worth in runs scored and meaningfully constructive worth in RBI. His residence run whole was about substitute stage although, so homeowners weren’t precisely getting the kind of stat combine they usually would from their first baseman or nook man.
A more healthy Reds subsequent season ought to guarantee Steer stays within the outfield, however that he was a damaging in left in each metric you would possibly seek the advice of, he’ll as soon as once more be a enjoying time danger. His .316 wOBA, with weak protection, may not reduce it as an day-after-day participant, so we’ll see what expectations are as we head into subsequent season earlier than calling him a bust once more.
Alec Bohm
Bohm’s fantasy line makes you query how he might have probably been worthwhile this yr. In comparison with 2023, he hit 5 fewer residence runs, recorded 12 fewer runs scored, stole only one extra base, and hit .280 versus .274, which is negligible. Clearly, the offensive setting should have been worse this yr, and certainly it was — the league hit greater than 400 residence runs fewer this season than final, and batted .243, versus .248. So Bohm’s contributions, though clearly worse than his prior yr, was really value greater than forecasted.
It’s stunning he hasn’t hit for extra energy but. His HardHit% is effectively above common and his maxEV has typically been simply over 110 MPH, each suggesting he hits the ball laborious. The issue stems from his Barrel%, which is considerably decrease than you’ll anticipate given the aforementioned HardHit% and maxEV. He’s merely been unable to pair sturdy exit velocity with an optimum launch angle to up each his HR/FB fee and ISO. One factor holding again his energy is a low FB%, which has been caught within the low-30% vary. So there’s upside there, along with his Barrel%. Nonetheless simply 28 years previous, he has time to expertise an influence surge, which might doubtlessly double his residence run whole.
The muse is there for a powerful fantasy season, as he improved his strikeout fee and SwStk% for the third straight yr, so he doesn’t even want an above common BABIP to hit for a positively valued batting common. We’re simply ready on the ability surge now, which might come at any time.
Jake Cronenworth
After final yr’s disappointing residence run whole, Cronenworth rebounded as his HR/FB fee returned to double digits for the second time in his profession. The very best HardHit% and Barrel% since his 2020 debut, alongside together with his highest maxEV, drove the elevated residence run energy, although oddly his ISO was barely above final yr’s mark, which represented his profession worst. Nonetheless, his residence run whole jumped again into the excessive teenagers, and he contributed a contact of the remainder of the counting stats to really perform a little of this and a bit of that, with out standing out anyplace.
HIs xwOBA suggests he deserved significantly better outcomes, and his batted ball distribution would appear to counsel he was due for a greater than .274 BABIP. Heading into his age 31 season, that is probably what we’re going to get, as he’s the definition of an accumulator who wants common enjoying time to carry any form of fantasy worth. You in all probability performed him at second base or center infield and for so long as he’s beginning, ought to proceed to ship low finish worth there.
