Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep – March 22, 2025
Matt Shaw
Shaw made his huge league debut with the Cubs a pair days in the past, and boy was it on an enormous stage. The Cubs rookie performed third throughout their sequence in Japan. Shaw went 1-9 throughout that sequence, however that is not actually notable. What’s notable is that Shaw is now creeping up draft boards, and with multi-positional eligibility between 2B, 3B, and SS, there’s a ton of intrigue. He stole 31 baggage and hit 21 homers in 121 MiLB video games final yr. He struck out at solely 18.2% in that point, and 5.3% in Spring Coaching. He additionally batted fifth for the Cubs in Japan, and the Cubs undoubtedly have a stable prime of the lineup that might give him sneaky RBI alternatives. If he’s going to steal bases, hit homers, have multi-positional eligibility, and bat in the course of the lineup, this might be a brilliant worthwhile fantasy participant, and at 229 ADP, I am completely greater than comfy reaching for him a bit.
Cam Smith
As of the time of this writing, Smith has but to formally break camp, however darn is he making a fantastic case. The 2024 First Spherical decide solely struck out at 17.9% in 134 MiLB PA’s final yr, and hit 7 homers and stole two baggage in that span. Smith has a really minor capacity to swipe baggage so I would not depend on it, however the promote right here is the pure hitter. He is hanging out at 22.2% in Spring Coaching, however strolling at 13.9% with 4 homers in solely 36 PA’s. My subject with Smith is that, although he’s a pure hitter, the Astros lineup is nearer to common than it’s good with the lack of Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker. The dearth of stolen bases may imply that even when Smith hits, you are taking a look at a two-category participant, and the likelihood he hits for common is a bit decrease simply given age. You possibly can draft him along with your final decide, however in early 2025, he does not have the upside you assume he has. Dynasty? Completely different story.
Ryan Weathers
Weathers was giving the barren Marlins roster some hope with elevated velocity and stuff throughout Spring Coaching. Weathers will sadly now hit the IL attributable to forearm irritation. I am not a health care provider however forearm strains for pitchers who’ve not too long ago seen their velocity bump is a reasonably large pink flag. Supposedly, the UCL is ok, however provided that Weathers will endure within the Win class attributable to enjoying for what could be the worst staff in baseball, plus his strike throwing points (18.6% BB fee in spring coaching), he not has the upside he did one week in the past.Â
Mike Trout
Trout was simply one of the best participant in baseball in the course of the 2010’s however it is a new decade. He’ll now not begin in CF for the Angels in an try to minimize his workload and preserve him wholesome. He has performed over 100 video games as soon as within the final 4 years, so the harm danger is actual. My major subject with Trout has nothing to do with the expertise, however reasonably his staff. To repay his 91 ADP, we’ll have to see one thing in the best way of stolen baggage or R/RBI. He hasn’t stolen greater than 10 baggage since 2019, and with the Angels making a deliberate effort to forestall harm, I do not see him stealing many baggage in 2025. When it comes to RBI/R, the outlook is desolate. Individuals have been making jokes in early 2024 that the Angels lineup was so unhealthy that Trout had extra homeruns than RBI. And that was truly virtually true. He had 10 homers and 14 RBI. I absolutely consider that if Trout performs a full season he’ll hit a minimum of 35 homers. The difficulty is that with Zach Neto harm and the remainder of the lineup having large query marks, he may find yourself being a really irritating participant to roster. Suppose twice.Â
Jacob Wilson
The son of former huge leaguer Jack Wilson and 2023 First Spherical decide, Wilson is without doubt one of the extra distinctive gamers on the market. He took 13 PA’s within the bigs final yr and struck out at 9.7% and walked at 7.8%. He’s beneath 10% in each marks throughout 47 Spring Coaching PAs. If you happen to take his huge league pattern and ST pattern, you possibly can in all probability venture out 12-16 homers, however zero stolen bases. With that low of a stroll fee and that low of homer complete, he’ll have to crush the AVG/R division to stay related, which might suggest some wonderful high quality of contact, which hasn’t precisely been proven to this point. If he bats in entrance of Brent Rooker and Shea Langeliers, I will really feel higher concerning the runs. In OBP and factors leagues, the dearth of walks could be a difficulty.
Hayden Birdsong
Birdsong has but to crack the rotation, and is at the moment preventing for the fifth spot, however personally I believe he’s a slam dunk for the position. He struck out 27.9% in 72 huge league innings final yr. The 13.7 BB% and 50% Laborious Hit fee have been a few of the worst charges within the bigs, however this spring he is allowed zero homers and 0 walks in 43 batters confronted. It is a small pattern measurement, however to be good in these two departments on the identical time is pretty troublesome whatever the pattern. It is pretty troublesome in a single begin alone. At 411 ADP, I am taking him with certainly one of my last picks practically each time.Â
Pablo Lopez
Lopez has made 32 begins and thrown a minimum of 180 innings three years operating. The quantity and reliability has a worth in and of itself, however I am apprehensive about Lopez’s capacity. His Whiff fee is robust (27%) as is his groundball fee (44%), however that being mentioned they’ve taken steps again. That groundball fee is a profession low, and his 56% Flyball fee was a profession excessive. His Pull Air fee is nineteen.5%, good for a profession excessive and nicely above huge league common. The wiff fee is the bottom within the final three years. His FIP hasn’t been beneath 3.30 as soon as within the final three years, and his xERA has been beneath 3.50 solely as soon as within the final 4 years. Simply perceive that you’re drafting solely a stable expertise, however leaning into the amount play.
Marcus Semien
A as soon as dependable multi-category contributor at a skinny place, Semien has actually declined in a disappointing method. That being mentioned, Semien is well essentially the most dependable participant within the final decade. He has appeared in 155 video games or extra in 8 of the final 10 seasons, which is basically 9 due to 2020, the place he began 53 of 60 video games. Whereas I applaud the sturdiness, the truth is that the standard of contact wasn’t nice this yr. His .328 xwOBACON was his lowest mark since 2019, which was the one season he posted a decrease fee. His 17.0 LA third lowest of his profession, and his 39.6% floor ball fee was additionally his highest since 2019. Fortunately Semien nonetheless has a sky excessive Pull Air % (24.2%) which makes him a lock to hit 20 homers. It looks as if Semien was rather more aggressive in 2024. His zone swing fee of 75.9% was a profession excessive by a whopping 3%, and his 25.2% Chase was practically a profession excessive. If he can tone it again and make higher selections, perhaps he can get again to that marginally higher batted ball knowledge, which might justify his 64 ADP extra for me.Â
Raisel Iglesias
The ultra-reliable Iglesias posted a powerful season in 2024, and he’s poised to take action once more in 2025. The Braves offense needs to be lots good, particularly when Acuna will get again, so there needs to be ample alternative to rack up saves. The underlying metrics for Iglesias are nonetheless tremendous robust, and you’ll confidently draft him wherever you would like – relying in your format. Iglesias is a whiff machine (31.5%) and even will get chase (37.1%). The standard of contact towards him is robust in his favor (.291 xwOBACON towards), which I am certain is partially pushed by his strong 45.1% groundball fee. Draft with confidence.
Jordan Westburg
Westburg is the near-star within the making no one is speaking about. He solely took 447 PAs final yr, so spherical all of these counting numbers up. I might even spherical up additional in case you anticipate the varied younger gamers they’ve in Baltimore to step up. Westburg posted a powerful .281 xBA and .491 xSLG. He virtually doubled his barrel fee (6.5% to 11.8%). Westburg was truly rather more aggressive in 2024. Each his Ok% and BB% have been lower by about 3%, indicating elevated swing charges. He truly whiffed barely extra. We’d clearly count on gamers who whiff and chase extra to strikeout extra, however Westburg goes towards the grain. His in zone contact additionally went down. The one rationalization is that Westburg was in a position to keep away from punchouts with a powerful two-strike strategy. It is a muddy breakdown, admittedly. We’ll name it impartial, and keep on with the notion that his high quality of contact obtained higher.
Luis Robert
After a brilliant robust 2023 that noticed Robert blast 38 bombs and steal 20 baggage with a .264/.315/.542 slash line, he disillusioned mightily in 2024, slashing simply .224/.278/.379. The standard of contact was horrible. His .210 xBA and .277 xwOBA have been close to the underside of the league. A lot of that is not *true* high quality of contact, because the 33.2 Ok% contributes to that enormously. The .385 xwOBACON is considerably about common, but when you are going to whiff and chase at over 35%, the xwOBACON must be elite. Whereas I need to wager on a bounce again, the form of his batted ball knowledge has shifty fairly intensely. His Pull fee plummeted practically 11%, and his flyball fee dipped about 4%. His 83.5% meatball swing fee was a profession low by a big margin, and contributed to his profession low in zone swing fee. Somebody gave him the recommendation “take extra pitches and use the center of the sector” and it went horrible. Please do the alternative Luis.
Brice Turang
Did you are taking too many energy hitters early within the draft? Don’t fret, you will discover Turang at his 115 ADP. The speedster stole a whopping 50 baggage final season, which is nicely greater than sufficient to look previous the abysmal 2.4% barrel fee. Turang has no energy of any sort. His 29.7 Laborious-Hit % and 87 EV are merchandise of 2nd Percentile bat pace. His Pull Air % is simply 7.6%, so lucking into homers is not actually on the desk. Fortunately, Turang does not punch out (17%) and walks a mean quantity (8.1%), so there’s something to speak about in factors leagues. Turang posted a eighty fifth Percentile squared up fee however solely a twenty ninth Percentile LA Candy Spot fee. It means he obtained unusually fortunate at attending to his greatest EVs at a excessive fee whereas in optimum LA ranges. His 261 xBA would agree. I am uncertain if that is an innate talent or not. Both method, I am pretty impartial on improved offense, leaning he will not get significantly better. You are shopping for the stolen bases with common that will not kill you.
Carlos Rodon
It has been an up and down profession for Rodon, however in 2024, he was a reasonably mediocre model of himself. The punchouts have been there (26.5%), however the high quality of contact was a significant concern. Rodon’s eighth Percentile groundball fee merely does not play in Yankee Stadium. He has an 18.1 LA towards, which was truly his lowest since 2019, however nonetheless nicely above huge league common. The flyball factor has been a difficulty for him for a while, but it surely merely does not pair nicely with me when you think about his Laborious Hit fee towards hasn’t been beneath league common within the final three years. At 137 ADP, it is simply actually powerful for me to take an arm that has no upside for higher.
Tyler Stephenson
Stephenson was certainly one of my favourite late spherical catchers, but it surely appears like an indirect pressure goes to land him on the IL to begin the season. The catcher place is so skinny that I’d be very all for shopping for given the harm low cost. Stephenson’s batted ball knowledge was throughout mediocre, however for a catcher, that truly performs up. His 9.1% Barrel fee is definitely above huge league common, and his LA Candy-Spot, xBA, xwOBA, and xwOBACON are all virtually an identical to league common. Stephenson truly does nicely within the self-discipline division, as his 22.7/9.3 Ok/BB ratio makes him a fantastic worth in factors leagues. If you wish to draft him as a starter and take another person late to fill in throughout his harm, I am providing you with the inexperienced mild.Â
Yu Darvish
Darvish is reportedly coping with elbow irritation, and should make a visit to the IL. The previous Cy Younger runner up posted only a 3.31 ERA in 81.2 innings final yr, however the underlying figures say he was in all probability a bit worse (3.62 xERA, 4.08 FIP). Darvish solely punched out 23.6% of batters final yr, a league common fee, however simply the bottom of his profession. His 39.9 Laborious Hit % was additionally a profession excessive. There are a selection of different batted ball figures that counsel the falloff hasn’t been horrible, however coming into the season aged 37 with an harm has me apprehensive.
