Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep – March 21, 2025
Alexis Diaz, CIN
Diaz has struggled mightily this spring, permitting 5 ER’s in 2.1 IP with 5 BB’s, 1 HBP and simply 1 Ok throughout his 3 appearances. It was virtually a given heading into spring coaching that Diaz can be the Reds nearer in 2025, however that could be very a lot in query proper now, and there is even a chance that he opens the season within the minors. Diaz already confirmed vital decline final season, when he completed with an 8.79 Ok/9 in comparison with 11.50 Ok/9 in 2023, and his xFIP was a regarding 5.06. He was nonetheless regular sufficient to take care of the nearer’s job, changing 28 of 32 save alternatives and posting a 3.99 ERA. Even when the Reds do resolve to take away Diaz from the nearer position to start out the season, there is a good probability he may get one other alternative down the highway if he figures issues out. However proper now, he isn’t a protected guess for saves to open the season.
So who may the Reds flip to in the event that they really feel they can not belief Diaz for the time being? They’ve a number of choices however none which can be clearcut.
Sam Moll, CIN
Moll has only one profession save beneath his belt, however he has been a stable setup man over the previous three years, racking up 35 holds together with a 3.08 ERA and 9.54 Ok/9 throughout 143.1 IP throughout that point. His stroll charges have been excessive, however his 3.35 BB/9 final yr was not as dangerous as earlier seasons. Moll has had a reasonably tough spring himself, permitting 10 ER’s in 5.2 IP with a 5:4 Ok:BB, however he has confirmed to be a dependable bullpen arm over the previous few years.
Tony Santillan, CIN
Santillan might have probably the most upside of anybody within the Cincinnati bullpen, as he recorded an unimaginable 13.80 Ok/9 throughout 30 IP final season whereas decreasing his stroll fee to a decent 2.70 BB/9, en path to a glowing 2.51 xFIP. He’s prone to the lengthy ball resulting from a low groundball fee, however with such an elite strikeout fee, it might not matter. He would not have an intensive big-league monitor report with lower than 100 IP beneath his belt, however that does not imply the Reds should not give him a shot in excessive leverage conditions.
Scott Barlow, CIN
Exterior of Diaz, Barlow has probably the most closing expertise of the Cincinnati relievers, having saved 53 video games in a 3 yr span from 2021-2023. He will get his strikeouts (profession 10.72 Ok/9), though he has struggled with walks the previous couple of seasons. He has completed every of the previous two seasons with an ERA above 4.00, so the Reds is probably not comfy with him in a closing position. However, if expertise is what the workforce cares about, then Barlow may very well be their most suitable choice.
Emilio Pagan, CIN
Pagan loved a profitable season with the Reds in 2024, posting a 44:11 Ok:BB throughout 38 IP whereas recording a 3.63 XFIP. His 4.50 ERA from a yr in the past is a bit deceptive as it’s partially the fault of a .351 BABIP. Pagan has been a reliable setup man for many of his profession, however he did accumulate 20 saves with the Rays again in 2019 and the Reds should not have an issue contemplating him a closing possibility this season if want be.
Alex Verdugo, ATL
Verdugo signed a one-year contact with the Braves on Thursday, and can start the season at AAA. As soon as the Braves deem that he’s prepared for MLB motion, he might should battle Jarred Kelenic for enjoying time within the outfield, and as soon as Ronald Acuna Jr. returns from his harm, that taking part in time could also be even more durable to search out. Verdugo has all the time been a superb contact hitter, and has sometimes hit for a robust common, till final yr when he hit .233 for the Yankees. He is more likely to bounce again in that division, however he has by no means developed vital energy on the massive league stage, maxing out at 13 HR’s in three completely different seasons. Verdugo is a questionable fantasy asset even with a full time position, and for certain when that position is way from assured.
Bowden Francis, TOR
Francis had a stable outing towards the Rays on Thursday, permitting 1 ER in 5.1 IP with 4 Ok’s and a pair of BB’s, which is a pleasant bounceback after giving up 12 ER’s in 10 IP throughout his first 4 spring appearances. Francis had a sensational 2nd half for the Blue Jays final season, posting a 1.80 ERA throughout 65 IP, and completed the season with an ERA of three.30. He barely walked anyone within the 2nd half with a 1.11 BB/9. Francis didn’t strikeout a ton of batters although, and he benefited from some success with a .211 BABIP final season. His 4.17 xFIP was practically a run greater than his ERA, so we should always count on some regression right here.
Pavin Smith, ARI
Smith collected 3 hits and 4 RBI towards the A’s on Thursday and is as much as a .916 OPS this spring. Smith constantly has first rate contact charges and takes an excellent share of walks, which helped him attain a .348 OBP final season. Nevertheless he would not hit for a lot energy or steal bases, which limits his fantasy attraction even when he had been to have an on a regular basis position with the Diamondbacks. As it’s, Smith hasn’t even appeared in 80 video games in a single season since 2021.
Kodei Senga, NYM
Senga struck out 6 in 3,2 IP towards the Nationals on Thursday, permitting 1 unearned run, and never permitting a success. Senga had a powerful rookie season in 2023 when he completed with a 2.98 ERA, 3.77 xFIP, and 10.93 Ok/9. He missed practically all of final season resulting from harm, which his dropped him in fantasy drafts till the center rounds. There’s clearly harm danger right here, but when he stays principally wholesome, he might be a superb worth the place he is being drafted.
Chris Paddack, MIN
Paddack struck out 7 and allowed simply 1 ER in 4.2 IP towards the Purple Sox on Thursday. It was introduced earlier this week that Paddack can be a part of the Twins’ rotation and Wednesday’s outcomes would not change that call. Paddack has a mixed 4.94 ERA since 2021, though his 3.85 xFIP throughout that span reveals that he is been unfortunate. Nonetheless, he isn’t a really useful possibility in fantasy proper now,
Tomoyuki Sugano, BAL
Sugano was roughed up by the Yankees on Thursday, permitting 5 ER’s in 4.2 IP, the primary ER’s he is allowed this spring. He has a stable 15:5 Ok:BB throughout 15.1 spring IP, however he would not have a monitor report of plenty of Ok’s in Japan, which makes him a weak fantasy possibility.
Aroldis Chapman, BOS
Chapman has been spectacular this spring with 13 Ok’s in 6.1 IP and seems to be the frontrunner to be the Purple Sox nearer over Liam Hendricks. Chapman’s had some ups and downs in recent times, however he nonetheless posted a powerful 14.30 Ok/9 and three.14 xFIP for the Pirates in 2024 and it seems he nonetheless has one thing left within the tank at age 37. He has had extraordinarily excessive stroll charges the previous few seasons, so he is unlikely to assist in the WHIP class, however he ought to nonetheless be a robust fantasy asset if he’s named as Boston’s nearer.
David Hamilton, BOS
Hamilton went 2-3 with 3 SB’s towards the Twins on Thursday and seems to be the frontrunner for the Purple Sox beginning 2nd base job. With 33 SB’s in 98 video games final season, Hamilton has the flexibility to be a robust fantasy contributor even when the remainder of his offensive sport leaves what to be desired.
Sean Newcomb, BOS
Newcomb allowed simply 1 unearned in 4.2 IP towards the Twins on Thursday and seems to be a robust candidate to fill a spot within the Purple Sox rotation with Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford set to open the season on the IL. Newcomb final pitched usually as an MLB starter in 2018 with the Braves, and whereas he was stable then, he has so much to show that he might be profitable in that position once more. He has by no means completed a season, as a SP or RP, with an xFIP beneath 4.33.
