My definition of a fantasy bust is a participant who doesn’t earn their draft worth, not essentially a participant who simply performs terribly. This implies a bust can come at any level within the draft, not simply among the many early picks that don’t pan out.
Beneath, you’ll discover my prime fantasy baseball first-base busts.
*All ADP knowledge through NFBC.
Salvador Perez – 70 ADP*
Salvador Perez has been a stable choice at catcher, and his first-base eligibility provides worth to that place. If fantasy baseball managers draft him as a primary baseman at decide 70, although, he might disappoint.
Perez has surpassed 27 residence runs simply as soon as in his profession regardless of seven seasons taking part in in at the least 130 video games. Take that threshold to 129 video games, and he has 9 of these seasons. Since 2011, Perez has surpassed 60 runs as soon as and 80 RBI twice.
Josh Naylor (95 ADP) surpassed all of these totals final season, and Christian Walker (97 ADP) did it in 2023. As a primary baseman, there are higher choices two rounds later which have an opportunity of manufacturing a lot better numbers than Perez.
Whereas age has not appeared to catch as much as Perez fairly but, this could possibly be the 12 months, particularly contemplating his hitter efficiency in direction of the top of final season:
Take into account Christian Walker’s hitter efficiency from final season, which ranged from superb to elite, and was constant all year long:
This can be the 12 months fantasy managers ought to fade Perez, specifically as a primary baseman, however whilst a catcher too.
Cody Bellinger – 109 ADP*
Clearly Cody Bellinger’s 2019 season was a product of the super-happy-fun-ball. Since tallying 47 homers, 121 runs, 115 RBI, and 15 steals, to go together with a .305 AVG, Bellinger merely has not come near residing as much as these numbers.
In actual fact, regardless of reaching 550 plate appearances in every of the final three seasons, the closest Bellinger has come to these lofty totals got here throughout his 2023 marketing campaign. He hit .307 with 26 homers, 95 runs, 97 RBI, and 20 steals. In any other case, he has been a really common participant.
His totals from these seasons mixed evaluate very equally to Nathaniel Lowe. The next contains their HR/R/RBI/SB/AVG totals from the final three seasons:
Cody Bellinger vs. Nathaniel Lowe (2021 to 2024)
There are different considerations for Bellinger, apart from manufacturing, that fantasy managers ought to issue into their choices. Bellinger produced the second-lowest barrel and hard-hit charges of his profession final season. He additionally chased greater than in 2023, whereas making much less contact as properly. Bellinger pulled the ball lower than any season since his rookie 12 months, whereas additionally placing up the bottom line drive fee of his profession. Consequently, his groundball fee elevated to its highest fee since 2020.
For fantasy managers anticipating an MVP 12 months out of Bellinger once more, the unhappy fact is that he’s not that participant anymore and perhaps by no means actually was.
Paul Goldschmidt – 176 ADP*
Paul Goldschmidt has been displaying some worrying tendencies for 3 years, now. Regardless of taking part in in over 150 video games in every season since 2022, his residence runs, runs, RBI, and AVG have all decreased from one 12 months to the following.
On prime of that, each his Ok% and BB% have worsened. He posted his lowest barrel fee since 2019, whereas additionally seeing a drop in his hard-hit fee from final season.
One specific concern that exhibits his age could possibly be a problem is that he was extra aggressive than ever, with a 47% swing fee, the very best of his profession.
On prime of that, his chase fee was a career-high 29% and his 79% contact fee was the bottom it’s been since 2017. Goldy additionally struggled towards fastballs in comparison with his profession norm towards them. All of this stuff mixed might imply that he simply isn’t capable of catch as much as fastballs and is struggling to see the zone properly. Our knowledge exhibits that is true. Check out his Strikezone Judgement+ from 2022 the place he was properly above common:
Examine that to his Strikezone Judgement+ from 2024, the place he was far under common:
This isn’t the kind of hitter I need to have on my fantasy roster, particularly if his destructive tendencies proceed. Yandy Díaz has an ADP 30 picks later, and in keeping with the BAT X, tasks to outproduce Goldschmidt in each roto class besides residence runs.
Michael Toglia – 183 ADP*
Michael Toglia ought to surpass his 116 video games performed and 458 PA totals from final season, which might result in a 30-home-run season. He’s an fascinating choice, particularly taking part in half his video games in Coors Area.
The main concern with Toglia is whether or not he’ll hit over the Mendoza Line. Throughout 730 PAs within the majors, he has only a .206 AVG. He’s a lot better towards lefty pitchers when he bats right-handed, posting a .236 AVG final season in comparison with a .210 AVG as a lefty batter versus righty pitchers.
Toglia has even higher numbers when he’s a RHB versus LHP at residence, placing up a .259 AVG final season with these parameters. If he can work out find out how to hit right-handed pitching constantly, he can be a power. However at finest, proper now, he’s a threat to draft as a top-200 participant. The one state of affairs I’d contemplate drafting him right here can be a each day NL-Solely league, the place I can goal residence matchups towards lefties.
I’d relatively draft Yandy Díaz 20 picks later, Michael Busch 60 picks later, or Rhys Hoskins 100 picks later.
Tyler Soderstrom – 311 ADP*
Tyler Soderstrom had a good stint within the majors final season, tallying 9 residence runs, 18 runs, and 26 RBI, with a .233 AVG in 213 PAs. He made some clear enhancements from his 45-game debut in 2023, strolling extra and hanging out much less, however he nonetheless has extra to do to enhance.
Most public projections counsel he’ll hit between 20-25 residence runs, and undertaking him for over 500 PAs. I fear that he won’t meet these totals until he can drive the ball higher and hold it off the bottom.
Soderstrom had a 49% GB fee final season, which might have ranked among the many 20 worst if he certified. His line drive fee was a loopy low 13%, and he solely pulled the ball 33% of the time. Pulled line drives are probably to show into hits, and he struggled to try this final season. He additionally had a low launch angle, and floor balls are probably to show into outs.
Moreover, he tasks for a 26-27% Ok fee, and an AVG within the .220s in keeping with most projections. These numbers could also be troublesome to achieve for him too if he continues to wrestle towards right-handed pitchers. He has bizarre splits as a lefty batter, the place he does considerably higher towards lefty pitchers. If he struggles towards RHPs, he might find yourself as a part of a weak aspect platoon which might restrict his at-bats, and his manufacturing as properly.
I’d relatively take my probabilities on Luke Raley or Jeimer Candelario, who’ve ADPs just like Soderstrom’s.
