Final June, I dove deep taking a look at how batted ball information can impression a participant’s efficiency. The aim of that article was to extrapolate batted ball information and see if you can also make assumptions a couple of participant’s future efficiency primarily based on their batted ball distribution. Specifically, the aim was to have a look at how floor ball charges can impression offensive manufacturing. This text is a continuation of that very same concept. Whereas it’s straightforward to get caught up in identify worth and minor league manufacturing, dynasty managers needs to be cautious of prospects who run excessive ground-ball percentages as they’ve a better probability of struggling on the main league degree.
Recapping and Increasing the Knowledge
The primary version of this text was lots of math. This one doesn’t dive fairly as deep however nonetheless gives some further analysis to the earlier concept. First although, here’s a fast recap of what the findings had been. Batters had been damaged up into two separate sections: an “ultimate” swing path and a “not ultimate” swing path. The findings revealed that batters who posted a line drive fee of a minimum of 22% and a ground-ball proportion of lower than 45% had a statistically greater wRC+ than batters with a floor ball fee of over 50%.
Among the minor league hitters who match that class presently final season had been Adael Amador, Brooks Lee, Jackson Holliday, Nelson Rada, Brady Home, and Justin Crawford. Amador, Lee, and Holliday have all frolicked within the main leagues this season they usually all posted a wRC+ beneath 65 of their small pattern sizes of debuts. Once more, the article emphasised that not all hitters who run excessive ground-ball charges are destined to battle on the main league degree. There may be only a statistically greater probability that they do.
With the low season upon us and a bit extra time on my palms, I made a decision to dive additional. How have minor league batters with “not ultimate” swing paths fared upon their promotion to the key leagues? Utilizing FanGraphs, I pulled a listing of minor league batters with 120+ at-bats and who posted a floor ball fee above 50% within the minors. The date vary for this analysis spanned 2015-2023. Subsequent, information was pulled from all main league hitters from 2015-2024. 58 batters from the minor league information set additionally had main league information. Their common wRC+ was 91. 76% of these batters had a wRC+ beneath 100. As compared, there have been 97 batters with ultimate swings. Their common wRC+ was 98. Solely 69% of these batters had a wRC+ beneath 100.
Statistical significance assessments weren’t carried out on this, however this helps the preliminary findings that batters with floor ball charges of over 50% battle extra offensively on the main league degree.
The important thing now for dynasty managers is to make use of this information. Goal gamers with ultimate swing paths and promote excessive on prospects that run concerningly excessive floor ball charges. The remainder of this text highlights a couple of big-name prospects with regarding swing paths and likewise a couple of underrated prospects who’ve ultimate swing paths.
Prospects with Regarding Swing Paths
Justin Crawford – PHI
Justin Crawford is the poster boy for a not-ideal swing path. Because of this, regardless of being a Phillies fan, Crawford was highlighted on this article final yr, and was talked about in my 2024 prospect bust predictions. On the floor, Crawford has been glorious in his quick skilled profession. After slashing .332/.392/.467 in his first skilled season, Crawford continued his robust play this yr. At 20 years outdated, Crawford break up time between Excessive-A and Double-A the place he slashed a powerful .313/.360/.444. Dynasty managers are enamored by his elite velocity (42 stolen bases) and excessive batting averages. The identify worth that comes with being Carl Crawford’s son alone is sufficient to get the eye of the dynasty neighborhood. His athleticism, manufacturing, and potential are all plain.
Regardless of this, dynasty managers ought to nonetheless proceed with warning. After operating a floor ball fee of over 70% in 2023, Crawford did enhance upon this quantity in 2024. Sadly, his floor ball fee was nonetheless up over 60% which is among the highest in all of minor league baseball. His velocity undoubtedly helps Crawford run greater BABIPs on his floor balls, however a BABIP north of .370 is totally unsustainable. As Crawford faces higher defenders, his BABIP goes to return down. A excessive ground-all fee additionally limits the sport energy Crawford can faucet into. He hit simply 9 dwelling runs this season and doesn’t challenge to hit greater than 15 along with his present batted ball distribution.
Henry Bolte – OAK
Generally, reevaluation of prospects is important. Henry Bolte was certainly one of my favourite prospects coming into the 2024 season. He was clearly not a top-10 prospect, however he felt like an ideal breakout decide. Bolte has all of the athleticism on the earth with energy and velocity that might flip him right into a 30/30 risk on the main league degree. He was coming off a implausible second half which noticed his strikeout fee drop considerably. Energy/velocity mixtures are what dynasty managers fall in love with, and Bolte profiled to be the following large factor. In all equity, Bolte did have a really robust season. Between Excessive-A and Double-A, Bolte hit 15 homers, stole 46 bases, and posted a 136 wRC+. On the floor, it might be straightforward to take the win right here and mark this breakout decide as a hit.
Nevertheless, straightforward victory laps are usually not why we’re right here. Bolte’s 2024 season was really extra regarding than encouraging. After making strides within the strikeout division in 2023, Bolte continued to battle on this space in 2024. His strikeout fee on the season was 34.7% and this profiles to be a problem that can plague Bolte all through his profession. On prime of that, Bolte didn’t get the ball within the air extra in 2024. A part of Bolte’s attraction is the 30+ homer potential. Nevertheless, Bolte fails to get the ball within the air persistently which is why the 15 he hit this yr was a profession excessive. Bolte’s floor ball fee remained up above 54% this season touchdown him within the “not ultimate” swing path bucket. Strikeouts and a poor swing path make Bolte a tough prospect to advocate for.
Welbyn Francisca – CLE
Welbyn Francisca doesn’t include fairly the prospect pedigree as the primary two names on this checklist. Francisca is an 18-year-old shortstop in Cleveland’s group who’s beginning to achieve extra notoriety within the dynasty neighborhood. After dominating the DSL final season, Francisca continued his success in full-season ball this yr. Splitting time between the Advanced League and Low-A, Francisca slashed a powerful .326/.411/.474. He hit seven homers and stole 19 bases in simply 71 video games. Manufacturing like that makes Francisca a lovely deep-league goal for a lot of dynasty managers throughout the neighborhood.
Nevertheless, Francisca is yet one more participant falling into the “not ultimate” swing bucket. Francisca’s floor ball fee spiked this previous season after posting glorious line drive and batted ball information within the DSL. Whereas the batting common appears nice, his .379 BABIP is an unsustainable mark for him to repeat. What makes Francisca an much more regarding prospect than the primary two listed is his lack of bodily projection. Whereas Crawford and Bolte every have swing path considerations, they stand at 6’2″ and 6’3″ respectively. Each have the facility potential to grow to be elite fantasy belongings if they’ll develop of their respective organizations. Francisca stands at 5’8″ and doesn’t include the identical ceiling as the opposite two. Missing a excessive ceiling and possessing extra threat than many notice, Francisca is a prospect to keep away from shopping for in on.
Underrated Prospects with Supreme Swing Paths
Jimmy Crooks III– STL
The Cardinals have had a couple of catching prospects through the years which have excited dynasty managers. First, it was Carson Kelly, and now extra not too long ago, Iván Herrera however neither one has been unable to meet expectations. Right here we’re once more with one other catching prospect in Jimmy Crooks III. Nevertheless, in contrast to Kelly and Herrera, Crooks is flying utterly below the radar. Crooks was drafted within the fourth spherical again in 2022 and put collectively a strong first season in 2023. He hit .271 with 12 homers and a 122 wRC+. Not eye-popping numbers, however actually strong for a catching prospect. Crooks constructed off that strong first season and exploded in 2024. His batting common jumped to .321 and he hit 11 dwelling runs regardless of taking part in in simply 90 video games.
A big purpose for Crooks’ success is his unimaginable capability to hit line drives. His line drive fee of 20.2% was strong in 2023, however pails compared to the 31.8% fee he posted in 2024. Crooks simply has a knack for hitting. He drives the ball to all fields and profiles to be a doubles machine. He has robust plate self-discipline that enables him to be selective and has no bother punishing errors pitchers make. Crooks is unlikely to ever land inside a top-100 checklist as a result of his age, place, and lack of draft pedigree. Nevertheless, he might simply be a .280 and 15-homer hitter on the main league degree. Crooks may very well be the catcher of the long run in St. Louis, and fantasy managers might see him within the main leagues as early as 2025.
Kyle Karros – COL
No person speaking about Kyle Karros‘ debut season needs to be prison. The 2023 fifth-round decide was nothing wanting spectacular in his first season with Colorado’s group. In 123 video games at Excessive-A, Karros slashed .311/.390/.485 with 15 dwelling runs and 12 stolen bases. The son of former Dodger Eric Karros, and brother of Dodgers’ farm hand Jarred Karros, Kyle wasted no time acclimating himself to skilled baseball. He took dwelling Northwest League MVP honors, but goes nearly unnoticed in dynasty communities—time for this to vary.
Karros stands at 6’5″, with spectacular uncooked energy. His present swing focuses extra on driving balls into the gaps than on driving them out of the ballpark. Karros makes use of a closed stance and sprays the ball all around the discipline. Nevertheless, when he will get ahold of 1, his energy is easy. With only a small toe faucet, Karros can drive the ball out to all elements of the park and will flip right into a 25-30 dwelling run bat with some tweaks to his strategy. For now although, Karros falls into the best swing group. His excessive line drive fee ought to result in glorious batting averages and assist him maintain success within the higher ranges of the minor leagues. A future dwelling ballpark of Coors Subject makes it even simpler to dream of Karros’ potential. He’s underrated and undervalued throughout the dynasty neighborhood, however that ought to change in 2025.
Matt Lugo – LAA
The Angels have a unfavourable connotation surrounding them. Because the group has struggled for a lot of the previous decade, this could create some worth for his or her up-and-coming prospects. Zach Neto put collectively a powerful 2024 and Nolan Schanuel has potential to grow to be a dependable fantasy asset. The acquisition of Matt Lugo on the 2024 commerce deadline creates one other alternative to purchase low on an Angels prospect who’s being broadly missed. Flashing again to 2022, Lugo put up a superb season for Boston in Excessive-A. He hit 18 homers, stole 20 bases, and hit .288 throughout 114 video games. His success didn’t proceed in 2023, however Lugo has bounced again in a giant manner this season. Between Double-A and Triple-A, Lugo hit 17 dwelling runs with 16 stolen bases. Lugo additionally walked over 10% of the time whereas batting .287.
Lugo’s offensive manufacturing stems from his glorious batted ball information. For starters, and the rationale he finds himself on this article, Lugo’s line drive fee skyrocketed in 2024. Lugo posted a line drive fee of over 30% this season which propelled his .337 BABIP. Whereas a line drive fee of 30% doubtless unsustainable, his BABIP is nothing out of the unusual and may very well be thought-about a bit low contemplating that line drive fee. The opposite a part of Lugo’s sport is his pure really feel for pulling the ball. Lugo pulled the ball almost 50% of the time this previous season serving to his energy to play up. That is the first purpose Lugo noticed his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio take a big leap this season. The adjustments Lugo made this yr appear to be legit and he is a superb sleeper prospect as recognized by Martin Sekulski.
Picture by https://www.mlb.com/milb | Tailored by Carlos Leano
