Electing the Hitter All-Loss Team

A few weeks in the past, I elected the hitter all-profit workforce, naming essentially the most worthwhile gamers at every place in comparison with their NFBC common public sale worth. Now let’s flip over to losses. Although not as thrilling to assessment, you may take solace in understanding you owned quite a lot of these hitters for those who ended up having a disappointing season.

Compiling an all-loss workforce is much tougher than an all-profit one. First, if I paid $1 for a hitter who ended up being horrible all yr and shedding $10 of worth, did I actually incur an $11 loss? Most likely not, as that participant would have been dropped again into the free agent pool lengthy earlier than he was ready to try this a lot harm. In order to not make these losses look extra extraordinary than they had been in follow, I adjusted all destructive earned greenback values to $0 when sorting by the most important losses. Nonetheless, within the desk I shared the precise finish of season greenback worth, which can have been destructive.

The subsequent problem was coping with accidents. Technically, Ronald Acuña Jr. was the most important loser of the yr. His common public sale worth was far and away the best amongst all gamers at $62, however harm restricted him to only 222 plate appearances. So after all he was going to ship a heavy loss. However sharing a roster crammed with those that missed a big chunk of the season as a consequence of harm isn’t insightful or fascinating. So I attempted to solely embrace hitters whose main driver of disappointing fantasy earnings was as a consequence of efficiency, and never an absence of PAs. That’s fairly subjective, after all, however all of the hitters I included recorded no less than 400 PAs. Clearly, the hitters who did miss time would have doubtless earned extra worth had they remained wholesome, however they had been so disappointing when taking the sphere that the hole between them and the following largest loser who remained wholesome all season nonetheless could not have closed even with higher well being.

Sure, this was the fewest PAs J.T. Realmuto recorded over a full season since his first full yr in 2015, because of harm. However he would have been a disappointment anyway, as his stolen base whole collapsed. He swiped simply two bases this season, after stealing no less than 13 in every of the final three seasons. Every little thing else right here seems fairly regular, however heading into his age 34 season, it’s anybody’s guess whether or not the steals will return. Earlier than 2021, he stole double digit bases simply as soon as, so it was truly a shock to see him abruptly begin operating so typically for 3 straight seasons when he turned 30. I’d pay for low single digit steals, with something extra being a bonus.

It’s fairly unbelievable that Mitch Garver completed the season having misplaced worth, even though he amassed a profession excessive PAs. Whereas his energy declined, it was the .172 batting common that crushed him. His strikeout fee spiked to a profession worst, whereas his BABIP fell to the bottom of his profession and the bottom amongst all hitters with no less than 400 PAs. His xwOBA suggests there was little dangerous fortune concerned, so this poor efficiency seems properly deserved. He’ll preserve catcher eligibility, so he’s not a foul second catcher in deep leagues, notably those who depend OBP as an alternative of batting common. After all, this enjoying time figures to be reduce closely subsequent season.

What occurred to the tremendous dependable Freddie Freeman?! The underlying expertise principally look related, however the energy has dropped again to his down 2022 degree, and never surprisingly, he couldn’t preserve his 2023 stolen base tempo. However maybe the true shock was his BABIP and batting common. His .306 BABIP was his lowest since 2012 and the second lowest of his whole profession! What’s wonderful is that he posted a 22.7% LD%, which is above the league common…and that was the bottom mark of his profession! He’s been the poster boy for a pristine batted ball profile, but it surely was barely extra human this yr. Maybe age is lastly taking a toll.

Sure, sure, accidents positively performed a task in Austin Riley’s disappointing output. However nonetheless, he completed the season with only a .338 wOBA, properly under his three full seasons, whereas his HR/FB fee slipped and residential run tempo was considerably under expectations. His batting common additionally fell, as his BABIP fell to a profession low over a full season, which coupled with the down house run fee, hampered that mark. The excellent news right here is that his HardHit% completed at a profession excessive, whereas each his maxEV and Barrel% had been elite as typical. So the down HR/FB fee seems like a whole fluke. With an xwOBA properly above his precise wOBA, he’s one of many extra apparent rebound candidates in 2025.

After a profession yr in 2023, I used to be fairly curious how Matt Olson would comply with up. It wasn’t good. In actual fact, it was as if 2023 by no means even occurred. However not solely did Olson regress to his pre-2023 efficiency, he was truly worse. His HR/FB fee fell to a profession low, and his wOBA dropped as properly to a profession low over a full season. All his Statcast metrics seems fairly good, although not fairly nearly as good as some earlier seasons, so it’s laborious to know how he managed only a 15.5% HR/FB fee. Nevertheless it occurred and his xwOBA suggests there was no dangerous luck concerned in his total efficiency. I assume his 2023 ought to remind us what he’s in the end able to, however when forecasting his future, let’s form of fake it didn’t occur and assume he’ll return to the 30-homer plateau with a middling common and a great RBI whole.

My gosh, what was occurring in Atlanta, as Ozzie Albies within the third title on this final (SO FAR!). Albies after all handled harm, limiting him to only 435 PAs. Nonetheless, excluding his injury-shortened 2022, he posted the worst wOBA of his profession. Moreover, his HR/FB fee and ISO each slipped to profession worsts. Who would have thought he’d publish only a 6.8% HR/FB fee?! We consider him as an influence hitter, however a lot of his output is because of his excessive FB% and low strikeout fee. His HardHit% has all the time been mediocre and his Barrel% has by no means reached double digits. So this season looks like the final word draw back of all his mediocre charges. That stated, he’s nonetheless heading into his age 28 season, so it might be foolish to not assume he’ll get again to no less than the 20-homer degree. Mix that with double digit steals and he’s nonetheless a high tier second baseman.

Accidents additionally took a chew out of Mookie Betts’ worth, limiting him to the fewest PAs in a full season in his profession. However his HR/FB fee abruptly plummeted to its lowest since his first full season all the way in which again in 2015. Each his HardHit% and Barrel% dropped to their lowest since 2017, which was a significant shock for the 31-year-old. He did salvage a few of his worth by stealing 16 bases, tied for his most since 2019. However the lack of energy and his hefty public sale day value (plus the harm, after all), made him a disappointment. I don’t know what occurred to his house run energy, however it’s important to assume it’ll rebound no less than considerably.

Trea Turner truly carried out fairly properly whereas on the sphere, so possibly most of his loss was as a consequence of harm, but it surely’s troublesome to find out that. Or maybe he was simply overpriced at $37 after coming off the second most house runs of his profession and 30 steals. Every little thing this yr was fairly regular, although his steals tempo dropped off a bit and it might have been unlikely for him to succeed in 30 steals given the identical variety of PAs. His xwOBA suggests he overperformed, maybe as a result of he posted his lowest LD% since 2017, and but his BABIP was proper according to his profession common.

Fernando Tatis Jr. was one other powerful name, as a result of how a lot of his losses had been as a consequence of him recording simply 438 PAs because of harm? Nonetheless, a $34 loss is huge, so how a lot of that loss would he have truly made up if given a further 200 PAs? Anyway, his outcomes represented a partial rebound off his 2023, as his HR/FB fee elevated a bit, however nonetheless fell far wanting his 2019-2021 seasons. His stolen base tempo was approach down although, as he swiped simply 11 bases after 29 in 2023 and 25 in 2021. Apparently, his xwOBA suggests he was severely unfortunate, so maybe the large rebound is coming in 2025. It could be the most affordable he’ll are available in years.

It was all the time going to be laborious to follow-up a 32 house runs and 37 steal season, however fantasy house owners had been nonetheless betting large on Julio Rodríguez. His energy collapsed, as his HR/FB fee fell to the low teenagers, whereas his ISO was shockingly under league common. That’s fairly stunning on condition that his HardHit% and maxEV had been each improbable, albeit down from his 2022 and 2023 ranges, whereas his Barrel%, additionally down, remained in double digits. Usually that mixture of metrics ends in a considerably larger HR/FB fee and ISO, which makes me extraordinarily optimistic for a rebound in 2025. His steals tempo was additionally down, and it’s anybody’s guess if he’ll get again to the 30 steals plateau. With 700+ PAs once more, he may, although whether or not it’s nearer to 30 or 40 is up within the air. He ought to be higher priced in 2025, however nonetheless won’t depart that a lot room for revenue.

Amazingly Michael Harris II is the fourth Braves hitter on this checklist. It’s no shock then that their offense disenchanted and scored simply the fifteenth most runs in baseball after operating away with the runs scored lead in 2023. Harris II additionally battle harm this yr, however was disappointing when on the plate as properly. The house run energy was positive, however his BABIP dropped dramatically, whereas his stolen base whole was reduce in half. He’ll must up his FB% to develop into a real house run power, which I believe he could possibly be able to given his sturdy Statcast metrics. At simply 24 subsequent season, he could be a perfect goal as an undervalued title with critical revenue potential.

Depend Luis Robert Jr. as one other title who missed time to harm, however was additionally a critical disappointment when he got here to the plate. After a significant breakout throughout his first full season in 2023, his energy slid, whereas his strikeout fee spiked over 30%, the place he stood throughout his 2020 rookie season. Maybe enjoying for a traditionally dangerous workforce tousled his focus, however regardless of the rationalization, it wasn’t good. He posted only a .285 wOBA together with a .224 batting common, whereas his runs scored and RBI paces had been a far cry from what he posted in 2023. He by some means managed to steal a profession excessive 23 bases, however that was the one saving grace right here. The 27-year-old ought to come cheaper than ever subsequent season, which ought to make him an incredible purchase.

Corbin Carroll completed June with simply two house runs. He then went on a tear by hitting 17 in simply July and August alone, together with 11 in August. Even with that, he was nonetheless a disappointment, even though he completed with 22 homers and 121 runs scored, the fifth most in baseball. That’s as a result of his BABIP plummeted to only .256, leading to a weak .231 batting common, and whereas his 35 steals had been seventh most in baseball, that was nonetheless 19 fewer than he swiped in 2023. He actually wants to repair his batted ball profile, which was gentle on line drives and heavy on pop-ups, earlier than we are able to depend on him contributing constructive worth in batting common once more. The facility is sustainable although, but it surely’s anybody’s guess how typically he’ll try a steal. A part of the drop in steals is the lack of OBP, after all, so he has a great shot of returning to 40 steals no less than.

Randy Arozarena went from one pitcher pleasant surroundings to a different this season, and he was a disappointment in each. The first driver of his disappointing output was a profession worst BABIP, which fell under .300 for the primary time. It led to only a .219 batting common, because of a profession worst LD% and a FB% leaping above 40% for the primary time. Mixed with a excessive IFFB%, he produced numerous simple outs. Oh, and a weak supporting forged resulted in simply 60 RBI, his lowest profession mark as properly. That’s a surprisingly low whole contemplating he spent the overwhelming majority of his time within the third, fourth, and fifth slots within the batting order. I’d like to see him in a greater hitting surroundings.