Dynasty Would You Rather: Third Base

A enjoyable low season exercise is diving in and evaluating veteran hitters to younger up-and-comers. This low season, the dynasty workforce at Pitcher Checklist is working a sequence evaluating some carefully ranked gamers at every place and debating who’s a greater dynasty asset. For the rankings, we used Martin Sekulski’s remaining High-350 dynasty rating listing from 2024. Certain, issues have modified since then, however this offers us an excellent foundation. Steve Dwyer already put out one for the shortstop which you’ll be able to try right here. I’ve the duty of debating third baseman within the article beneath.

Would You Quite: Third Base Version

The Veteran: Austin Riley, ATL

Austin Riley is among the premier energy hitters in all of baseball. All through the course of his skilled profession, Riley has turned himself from a house run slugger, to a whole hitter who’s routinely drafted amongst the highest third basemen in fantasy. Whereas Riley seems like a veteran, it might come as a shock that he’s nonetheless simply 27 years outdated. There’s a world the place Riley may get even higher in 2025.

Regardless of the upside and consistency Riley has, there’s a little bit of a unfavourable stigma surrounding him in dynasty and fantasy circles. The Braves handled accidents up and down their lineup in 2025 and that included Riley. A damaged hand restricted Riley to simply 110 video games; the fewest he has performed since taking up because the full-time starter. Even when wholesome, Riley’s season was inconsistent. On the finish of Might, Riley was slashing simply .228/.295/.353. Fantasy managers keep in mind the start of seasons and the tip of seasons way over the center. Riley struggled to start with and was unavailable on the finish. Now, many are fading him from the place he was as soon as valued.

So, what ought to dynasty managers count on transferring ahead? There isn’t a doubt that Riley goes to proceed performing as an elite fantasy asset for the following a number of years. From June 1 by the tip of the yr, Riley slashed .275/.339/.531 with 16 dwelling runs. Previous to final season, he had cleared 30 dwelling runs in three straight seasons. His 600 PA tempo after June 1 was 34 dwelling runs. Riley is among the greatest energy hitters in all of baseball. He has by no means posted a barrel charge beneath 10% and he ought to see his batting common creep again as much as his career-norms. Don’t low cost Austin Riley’s worth each in 2025 and past.

The Up-and-Comer: Royce Lewis, MIN

The flashy, thrilling, high-upside goal for a lot of at third base is Royce Lewis. Lewis has gone on some ridiculous energy runs and has the facility and pure pace to show into an elite fantasy asset. Lewis’ dynasty worth is extremely excessive. Simply 25 years outdated and with the pedigree of being the primary total choose a number of years in the past, buying Lewis seems like a dream. In Martin’s remaining High-350 launched on the finish of 2024, Lewis ranked simply two spots beneath Austin Riley because the Thirty fourth-best dynasty asset in baseball.

Is that this dynasty worth justified? Sure, Lewis has unimaginable potential. His 600 PA tempo final season was 30 dwelling runs. His first-half numbers have been ridiculous and communicate to the type of upside he has. He slashed .292/.354/.685 with 10 dwelling runs in lower than 100 plate appearances. All people in fantasy is aware of concerning the upside and that’s the reason he ranks amongst the very best property in dynasty.

Nonetheless, with that upside comes excessive volatility. Lewis slashed simply .207/.270/.350 and struck out practically 25% of the time. Lewis’ hit instrument is suspect at greatest. He chased over 33% of pitches he noticed whereas whiffing 27% of the time. Not solely is his hit instrument a priority, however sturdiness is a significant subject. After enjoying simply 58 video games in 2024, Lewis performed simply 82 video games. Trying by his skilled profession, Lewis has not performed in additional than 100 video games since 2019. Piling onto the issues with Lewis is his lack of pace. Accidents have taken a toll on Lewis’ physique, and his dash pace final season ranked in simply the twenty eighth percentile and he didn’t steal a single base. Lewis’ prospect report was predicated on a mixture of pace and energy giving him elite fantasy upside. That’s not the case.

So, what’s Lewis’ dynasty upside and the way does it examine to the worth of Riley? Lewis is an influence hitter. With pace not part of his sport, the best-case state of affairs for Lewis is probably going 40 dwelling runs, a median round .260, and 5 stolen bases. Folks…. THIS IS EXACTLY WHO AUSTIN RILEY ALREADY IS. Whereas we hope that Lewis turns into an elite fantasy asset and may keep wholesome; Riley is already the whole lot we hope Lewis can change into. Whereas Lewis is probably going an overrated dynasty asset, Riley is underrated making this verdict a simple one.

Verdict: Riley and it shouldn’t be shut

The Veteran: Alec Bohm, PHI

Alec Bohm’s 2024 season was a curler coaster that began unimaginable and slowly fell off the rails. Bohm’s first half was what Phillies followers and fantasy managers had been dreaming of since he was drafted third total. On the finish of the primary half, Bohm was slashing .295/.348/.482. His success was emphasised by a surprisingly spectacular efficiency within the House Run Derby. Bohm handled a again harm within the second half and whereas the impacts are unclear, his numbers suffered. Bohm hit all-time low throughout a tough divisional spherical playoff matchup during which he was benched and is now the middle of commerce discussions this low season.

Dynasty managers are tasked with figuring out what Bohm’s future fantasy worth seems to be like. Now 28, Bohm’s fantasy worth has tanked from the place it was early on this season. Philadephia is called a hitter-friendly ballpark and any transfer may result in suppressed numbers. Bohm’s profession numbers, his wRC+ away from Philadelphia is definitely barely larger than it’s at dwelling though his dwelling run numbers are a lot better at dwelling. The most important affect on Bohm’s future fantasy worth may are available his RBI totals. Bohm scored 97 runs for the second consecutive season. How does that quantity look when he’s not batting behind Trea Turner and Bryce Harper?

Eradicating workforce context, Bohm continues to be an ideal pure-hitter. He has wonderful contact abilities and has hit at the very least .274 in three straight seasons. The problem is that it’s changing into more and more possible Bohm by no means lives as much as his energy potential. His sport is based on driving the ball to all fields with good line drive charges. Regardless of sturdy hard-hit charges, his barrel share has persistently sat round 6.5% and his dwelling run per fly ball charge dropped beneath 10% final season. Bohm profiles to be precisely what he has been over the previous couple of seasons. He’s a high-floor, low-ceiling possibility for fantasy managers. He’s a useful asset however is unlikely to ever change into a foundational piece of a championship workforce.

The Up-and-Comer: Coby Mayo, BAL

There may not be a prospect in baseball who entered 2024 with extra helium than Coby Mayo. A part of the nice Orioles farm system, Mayo has proven off unimaginable energy all through his skilled profession. Standing at 6’5″, the house runs have come effortlessly for Mayo. He hit 29 dwelling runs in 2023 and plenty of anticipated a seamless transition to the Main Leagues sooner or later in 2024.

After a quick begin in Triple-A, Mayo’s first stint on the Main League stage didn’t go as many hoped. In a small pattern of 17 video games, Mayo hit simply .098 with zero dwelling runs. The most important pink flag was a strikeout charge of 47.8%. Whereas his hit instrument was removed from good within the Minor Leagues, no person anticipated him to battle fairly as a lot as he did. Now, many within the dynasty neighborhood are questioning if they need to alter their future expectations for the Orioles’ younger slugger.

The talk between these two gamers is fascinating. On the one hand, Bohm is a cultured hitter who fantasy managers can depend on to provide a stable batting common and play persistently. Alternatively, he has by no means cleared 20 dwelling runs in a season and will discover himself on a brand new workforce with much less favorable circumstances subsequent season. Mayo is the close to reverse. Mayo has no observe report of dependable manufacturing and has struggled in his solely Main League stint. Nonetheless, the upside in comparison with Bohm is drastic. Mayo has the type of energy that might flip him right into a 40+ dwelling run menace and the adjusted left-field wall in Camden Yards solely performs in his favor.

Verdict: Group construct is an element, however give me the upside of Mayo

The Veteran: Nolan Arenado, STL

Regression was anticipated for Nolan Arenado in 2024, however not fairly to the degrees that he noticed. In his age 33 season, Arenado noticed his dwelling run complete drop to his lowest mark since 2013. He additionally didn’t eclipse 80 RBIs for the primary time since 2014 together with his lowest run complete since that yr as properly. With Arenado turning 34 in April and the Cardinals retooling, there’s the potential we see Arenado on a brand new workforce in 2025.

Dynasty managers want to determine how a lot juice is left in Arenado’s bat. Is he a savvy buy-low possibility for these in win-now mode? Is the very best of Arenado prior to now? The excellent news is that Arenado nonetheless has elite contact abilities. In 2024, he posted the bottom whiff charge of his profession whereas additionally considerably decreasing his chase charge on offspeed pitches. His hit instrument is pretty much as good as ever with a line drive charge above 20% and a candy spot charge of 35.9%. Arenado continues to be a productive offensive participant and will proceed batting for stable averages for the following few seasons.

The problem is that Arenado’s 30 dwelling run days are possible behind him. Arenado posted the bottom exit velocity and barrel charge of his profession in 2024. He particularly struggled on four-seam fastballs, seeing his slugging share towards that pitch drop from .669 in 2023 to .399. His earlier career-low towards four-seamers was .457 again in 2021. Struggles with velocity are sometimes one of many first indicators of decline for veteran gamers and that’s precisely what we’re seeing with Arenado. Arenado’s pull charge on fly balls additionally decreased considerably in 2024, inflicting extra concern.

The expectations for Arenado in 2025 and past ought to actually change from earlier requirements. Nonetheless, that doesn’t make him a nasty asset for 2025. He’s more likely to proceed batting in the course of some workforce’s lineup, resulting in sturdy RBI probabilities. His contact abilities and line drive charge will present a steady batting common, and his dwelling runs ought to see some optimistic regression within the 20-ish vary. Now, if you wish to purchase Arenado, it’s an all-in, win-now type of transfer. In three seasons, he might be 37 and within the remaining season of his contract. His worth will proceed declining over the following three seasons, however he needs to be a dependable, albeit unexciting, asset for 2025 and perhaps 2026.

The Up-and-Comer: Brady Home, WAS

Brady Home and Nolan Arenado rating carefully in Martin’s remaining rankings was an ideal solution to finish this text. Arenado, one of many nice stalwarts of the third base place whose greatest offensive days are possible behind him. Home, a consensus top-100 prospect who may debut with Washington as early as 2025. Group construct is actually at play right here and unimaginable to disregard. In a complete rebuild, Home is the asset you need, however you do not want me to inform you that. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at issues in a vacuum. If you’re someplace within the center is Home actually going to be value promoting low on Nolan Arenado for?

Home was drafted eleventh total by Washington again within the 2021 draft. Initially a shortstop, Home has moved over to 3rd base and put collectively a stable 2024 season. Between Double-A and Triple-A, Home hit a career-high 19 dwelling runs. The problem is in Home’s hit instrument. Home batted simply .241 final season and struggled to make contact persistently. Contact abilities have been a constant pink flag all through Home’s skilled profession and stay a main concern when evaluating his future worth. The issues are with extra than simply his contact abilities although. His method is a significant subject as he persistently expands the zone and has struggled to work walks. An aggressive method with extra contact abilities hardly ever works on the Main League stage.

With the danger comes the upside. Home stands at 6’4″ and has unimaginable energy upside. When he makes contact, he sprays the ball to all fields with sturdy line drive charges. He has simple opposite-field energy and will faucet into much more sport pop if he begins pulling the ball extra. He could possibly be a .250 with 35 homers type of participant and might be handed the beginning third base job in Washington sooner reasonably than later.

Home’s method issues make it extraordinarily possible he struggles in his first style of Main League motion. So, give 2025 to Arenado. Will Home repair his method points, that’s as much as Washington’s participant growth workforce and is way from a assure. Arenado is more likely to proceed outproducing Home in 2026 due to the security that his hit instrument supplies. Home’s upside is just not outweighed by the pink flags in his profile.

Verdict: Assuming not a complete rebuild, Nolan Arenado