Debates are all the time thrilling, and whereas this may hopefully not be as controversial because the political debates at the moment of the yr, it’s much more entertaining! In fantasy baseball, as in life, there are various opinions on every part, from the colour of the sky (not all the time blue) to the impression of Isaac Paredes in a wind tunnel at Wrigley. It’s not daily you get to play satan’s advocate in opposition to your self, however right here we’re! Let’s dive into a couple of “Would You Moderately?” questions primarily based on fantasy baseball’s gifted crop of outfielders!
Jarren Duran vs. Corbin Carroll (Prime 25)
We’re off to a quick begin! Actually! Each gamers ranked within the 96th percentile for Dash Pace this season, shifting at a brisk 29.6 toes per second. As somebody who sees lots of Duran, I discover it laborious to imagine that anybody is quicker than him, however apparently, I’m fallacious. Pace and athleticism are positively on the coronary heart of their offensive profiles, and whereas I do know Duran is quick, Carroll has the manufacturing to match. In his two seasons, Carroll has transformed 89 of his 102 steal makes an attempt (87.3%) in comparison with Duran, who has 67 profession steals. Benefit: Carroll
On the plate, the comparability is nearer than you’d suppose. They’ve comparable contact profiles, though Duran is persistently extra aggressive, each in swing charge and chase, but additionally has higher batted-ball knowledge than Carroll. Each gamers hit atop their crew’s lineup and have ample alternatives for counting stats primarily based on crew context, in order that’s a wash. So, the distinction lies in attempting to undertaking who Corbin Carroll really is versus what Jarren Duran is or will turn out to be.
Evaluating Carroll has turn out to be far more difficult than Duran as a result of his ailing shoulder. We predict we all know what Carroll is able to, however is he genuinely wholesome, and have we seen his greatest model? If we use the primary half of 2023 (pre-shoulder damage) as the place to begin for a wholesome Corbin Carroll, we are able to undertaking him as a .290 hitter with round 30 homers, 110 runs, 90 RBI, and 50 steals yearly. That’s primarily based on the concept that his manufacturing would regularly enhance, and his shoulder is ok, though it’s hypothesis. In any case, Carroll is simply 24 years previous and was discovering his stride within the huge leagues simply as he was harm.
Nonetheless, we don’t know the extent of the shoulder injury or if it even exists. Perhaps Carroll began slowly in 2024 and made the correct changes earlier than his breakout within the second half. Or maybe that shoulder is hanging by a thread, and we discover out in six months that he wants it repaired for the second time in 4 seasons. There are such a lot of questions with Carroll, making him probably the most difficult gamers to evaluate in fantasy and giving me the sensation I ought to lean towards Duran.
We all know that the 2024 model of Jarren Duran was fairly darn good. He has dramatically improved since being demoted to the minors early in 2023. Duran has remodeled his offensive profile from a contact-oriented method to a well-rounded participant able to each hit and energy. He’s additionally remodeled his physique right into a extra bodily, athletic body able to withstanding the grind of a 162-game schedule whereas taking part in with reckless abandon as Duran does. Plus, his pace is a game-changer, turning routine singles into doubles and placing immense strain on the protection.
Duran had a .285 common final season (.295 in 2023) with 21 homers, 111 runs, 75 RBIs, and 34 steals. His soar in batting common is an element BABIP-driven and half ability enchancment however can be boosted by his pace and ballpark components. However is that Duran’s peak? His contact charge has stabilized at round 87% in-zone with a hard-hit charge of round 44%. Whenever you consider batted ball knowledge (90.8 mph Common EV, 106.5 mph Max EV ninetieth percentile), I see a path to Duran hitting for a .280-ish common and 30 homers to pair along with his 30+ steals (plus counting stats).
These gamers are so comparable of their profiles and potential upside that it comes all the way down to their flooring. Who’s safer? My lean is Duran. The priority over Carroll’s shoulder has impacted my thought course of. I imagine the shoulder is injured; thus, his flooring is someplace round what we noticed final season. With a .250-ish common, 25 homers, 35 steals, and 121 runs scored, Carroll continues to be a precious dynasty asset. However I imagine Duran has extra within the tank, and although there’s a four-year age hole, I give Duran the slight edge. I really feel that Duran’s 2024 is the beginning of a terrific four-to-six-year run as among the finest gamers in baseball.
Verdict: Jarren Duran, nevertheless it’s CLOSE.
Roman Anthony vs. Jasson Domínguez (Prime 80)
Crimson Sox versus Yankees. Roman versus the Martian. Anthony versus Dominguez. Who doesn’t love a superb prospect battle? (Talking of which, hold your eyes open for the 2025 prospect battles between me and Matt Heckman, which is able to hopefully prove higher outcomes than final season.) These two abilities have vibrant futures forward of them and characterize an extremely expert group of younger gamers that may dominate the American League East and Main League Baseball panorama.
Within the story of the tape, Roman Anthony towers over Dominguez. Actually! The 6’2″ 20-year-old has a five-inch top benefit, though as Jose Altuve proves, dimension isn’t every part. Dominguez’s potential to steal bases is the lone space the place both participant has a definite benefit. Whereas it’s true that stolen base manufacturing within the minors isn’t all the time an indicator of future success, The Martian is usually thought to be the higher runner. Nonetheless, Anthony is a greater athlete total with extra fluid and pure motion and nonetheless initiatives to be an impactful baserunner within the majors. Benefit: Dominguez
Offensively, their total manufacturing may be very comparable, though Dominguez has over 100 extra video games performed. As a result of hole in video games performed, floor stats is pointless, so we should dig deep. The outcomes (proven right here) have been INCREDIBLE!
Other than a proportion right here and there, these guys are nearly equivalent. One level on their chase charges: each gamers have above-average plate self-discipline. I’ll give Dominguez a move in 2024, as he was getting back from damage and was urgent to get again to the Present. With that mentioned, I like Anthony’s total method higher. He’s affected person, calculated along with his swing choices, makes terrific contact with glorious batted ball knowledge, and initiatives to be a extra polished hitter with a safer flooring.
Dominguez is an extremely gifted participant and arguably has a better upside than Anthony. Nonetheless, I additionally really feel that his margin of error is smaller, and his vary of outcomes is extra complete. My greatest concern with Dominguez is that he’s not nice from the best aspect of the plate, however continues to change hit. It might in the end result in a platoon. I’m not saying it’s going to, however his numbers in opposition to LHP are tough. If he ditches switch-hitting, what does he turn out to be as a left-handed hitter in opposition to LHP?
The enjoyable half about that is the nice unknown. Dominguez has given us sufficient at-bats to lose prospect eligibility, however extra of an MLB pattern is required to make a judgment. In the meantime, Anthony is on the cusp of his MLB debut, and we don’t know what is going to occur. Prospects, my mates. Prospects.
Verdict: Roman Anthony
Teoscar Hernández vs. Anthony Santander (Prime 150)
Teo versus Tony Taters is an fascinating comparability, particularly since each gamers are free brokers getting into 2025. Over the previous two seasons, each hitters have been precious belongings in Dynasty and have possible led your crew to nice success. So, as they each search for their subsequent payday, let’s have a look at who you need in your Dynasty leagues shifting ahead.
At first look, we’ve received two comparable gamers with a slight age hole. Hernandez is getting into his age 33 season, whereas Santander is a spring hen at 30. Whenever you have a look at the floor stats beneath, you’ll see two clear outliers that favor Hernandez and one which favors Santander.
Hernandez has a big lead in stolen bases and is a far superior runner to Santander, who I may beat in a race. As well as, Hernandez has a transparent benefit by way of batting common. The primary driver is that Santander is heavy flyball (51.5%), leading to a decrease BABIP and batting common.
However, Hernandez has the upper groundball charge with a boosted BABIP (.341 in ’24), which helps bump that common. However, whereas Santander might run a decrease BABIP/common, it’s simpler to hit house runs with a excessive flyball charge, and that’s what he does. Over the previous three seasons, Santander has 105 house runs to Teoscar’s 84.
The general offensive profile (batted ball, contact charges, plate self-discipline) is break up. Hernandez thrives in hard-hit charge, barrel charge, and anticipated stats. Santander excels in touch charges, particularly in-zone contact and whiff charges. I seen that Hernandez has a considerably increased strikeout charge (28.8% vs. 19.4%), though they’re equally aggressive swingers, and he chases six % much less usually than Santander. The weirdest half about that’s Santander’s 76.5% chase contact charge, which is absurdly excessive and ranks within the prime 15 in MLB. Suffice it to say that Santander is a “unhealthy ball” hitter, and it really works properly!
my dynasty rankings, I see them one spot aside positionally, as Teoscar is OF29 and Santander is OF30, with 13 spots total separating them. For dynasty functions, I lean towards Hernandez. Though he’s two years older, the enhance in batting common and steals is sufficient to overcome the slight hole in energy. It is going to be fascinating to see the place every participant winds up, significantly Santander, who may get an much more important energy enhance after leaving Camden Yards.
Verdict: Teoscar Hernández
