Deep League Starting Pitchers: Nelson, Brown, Lowder, & Megill

Earlier deep beginning pitcher profiles:

Luzardo, Keller, Myers, & OrtizTaillon, Harrison, Martinez, & SingerHerz, Bassitt, Civale, & BradfordBirdsong, Littell, Boyd, & PetersonSasaki, Singer, Bello, Soriano, & Weathers

Word: I began writing these after which stopped away from some time. The ADP modified fairly a bit so the final three aren’t in excellent order with some arms now between them.

Ryne Nelson (304 ADP)

I’m not sure how the 26-year-old righty put up a 4.24 ERA (3.98 xFIP), 1.25 WHIP, and seven.5 Okay/9 in 150 IP. Many of the enchancment got here within the second half when he minimize his ERA from 4.98 (4.52 xFIP) to three.23 (3.24 xFIP).

First, walks weren’t behind the second half enchancment, he had them beneath management your entire season. His stroll charge dropped from 2.9 BB/9 in 2023 to 2.0 BB/9 final season.

All of the enhancements got here from his strikeout charge going from 6.1 Okay/9 to 9.4 Okay/9. He simply leaned into his fastball.

His success hinged on his fastball being over 95 mph. Within the begins when his fastball averaged 95 mph or much less, he posted a 5.3 Okay/9. Within the ones when his fastball averaged over 95 mph, it was a 9.2 Okay/9.

The difficulty is that his velocity jumps round fairly a bit from begin to begin.

Total, he’s rosterable in draft-and-hold codecs however his expertise is maxed out with out a median or higher secondary.

Ben Brown (359 ADP)

I used to be a fan of the 25-year-old righty going into final season and he didn’t disappoint with a 3.58 ERA (3.63 xFIP), 1.08 WHIP, and 10.4 Okay/9 in 55 IP. The issue is that he retains getting injured as seen by simply the 55 IP this season. Listed below are his season totals since being drafted.

Season: IP2017: 142018: 562019: 132021: 162022: 1042023: 922025: 55Total: 350

Over seven full seasons, he has by no means thrown over 104 IP. A projection of 100 IP is an affordable upside play.

When on the mound, he dominates with a 96+ mph fastball and a plus-plus curve (25% SwStr%). Sometimes, he mixes in a changeup.

Moreover the accidents, the Cubs would possibly completely transfer Brown to the bullpen limiting his worth. I’ll ignore him till he reveals up wholesome to Spring Coaching and has an outlined function.

Rhett Lowder (374 ADP)

The 22-year-old righty posted a 1.17 ERA final season over 30 IP, however that’s the place the positives finish. Even with out permitting a single residence run, he nonetheless posted a 3.10 FIP however with a 4.73 xFIP and 5.16 SIERA. He doesn’t strike out sufficient batters (6.5 Okay/9) to have a 4.1 BB/9. His 6.3% Okay%-BB% is akin to Cal Quantrill (746 ADP), Michael Lorenzen (603 ADP), and Taijuan Walker (749 ADP). There are tons of low-strikeout, high-walk starters out there later within the draft. There is no such thing as a motive to take one this early.

It’s powerful to seek out any positives. His 38% Ball% factors to a 3.8 BB/9 … higher however nonetheless a drain. His slider grades common with a 14% SwStr% (51 botOverall, 104 Pitching+). The one stat I’d deal with is his 2.0 BB/9 within the minors earlier than his debut. Perhaps he can get it again.

One other concern he’ll want to beat is that his launch level is in every single place. His four-seamer would possibly was launched half a foot increased than his sinker. He modifies launch level based mostly on the hitter’s handedness.

A extra constant launch level would more than likely result in fewer walks.

Like with Brown, I’m not serious about coping with him on a draft-and-hold workforce. In redraft, I could be if he begins throwing strikes in Spring Coaching. It’ll be powerful to seek out out about his launch level with just one Spring Coaching park in Arizona having public StatCast info.

Tylor Megill (390 ADP)

The 29-year-old righty struggled and was demoted twice to AAA. After his second one, he had a 5.17 ERA (4.22 xFIP), 10.5 Okay/9, and 1.43 WHIP (4.2 BB/9). Over six begins (CHW, BOS, TOR, WSN, PHI, ATL) starting on August thirtieth, he posted a 2.32 ERA (3.13 xFIP), 10.5 Okay/9, and 1.13 (2.9 BB/9). He returned to the majors over that final month with a number of adjustments.

Earlier than even his first demotion, he modified his launch level by transferring a foot nearer to 3rd base.

With the change of launch level, he added an incredible sinker that he began throwing 20% of the time.

With the 70% GB%, he can hope to drop his excessive Barrel%. Over the previous 4 seasons (min 300 IP), his 9.4 Barrel% ranks nineteenth out of 156 pitchers. Over that point, he posted a 1.4 HR/9.

It’s not all rainbows and unicorns with Megill. The Mets have already added three starters this offseason, Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning, and Clay Holmes. Megill might need a troublesome time beginning the season within the rotation, particularly since he has a minor league choice remaining.

Total, Megill needs to be rostered in all codecs for the prospect that his late-season changes stick. A 20% Okay%-BB% from a starter is top-30 materials.