Cutting to the Chase with Chad Patrick

Finding out the stability of plate self-discipline metrics on particular person pitches might be fascinating. They inform a narrative, for those who look intently sufficient.

I’m at all times within the reverse ends of the spectrum, and it’s most fascinating when a pitcher makes use of these ends on the extremes. Amongst beginning pitchers who’ve thrown 250 splitters, Yoshinobu Yamamoto occupies each the bottom known as strike price on his splitter (4.2%) and the very best chase price (27.2%). Yamaoto doesn’t throw the splitter within the zone as a result of he doesn’t need to. Hitters will chase it. Once they do, Yamamoto’s splitter earns a 20.1% swinging strike price, which is effectively above common. Right here’s a visible:

The Pitch Stacker – Splitters (click on to enlarge)

This screenshot is taken from an internet app I’m growing, the place the blue and pink dots point out the last-place (blue) and first-place (pink) pitchers using the chosen pitch over the brink. Inexperienced represents the common mark amongst these pitchers. On this case, you possibly can see Yamamoto main the group of excessive splitter utilization pitchers in chase price and swinging strike price, whereas ending final in known as strikes. There’s nonetheless some work to do on the app, however hopefully you possibly can see how this can be helpful. The visible supplies baseball followers with a greater understanding of a pitcher’s method, permitting them to match it to a baseline.

That’s what I used to be doing after I observed Chad Patrick and his out-of-the-zone cutter. The rookie Brewers starter has one of many highest chase charges on the pitch at 19.9%, effectively above the common amongst his cutter-throwing friends, 13.5%. By “cutter-throwing” friends, I imply any pitcher who has thrown 200 or extra cutters in 2025. There aren’t a lot of them. At present, there are solely 15, although Nathan Eovaldi is shut to creating that listing longer with 197 cutters thrown.  However amongst them, Chad Patrick’s cutter exhibits up on two totally different ends of the spectrum:

The Pitch Stacker – Cutters (click on to enlarge)

Patrick, like Yamamoto, is forcing hitters to chase, however not often getting known as strikes. Now, discover Taijuan Walker on the reverse finish of the “CStr%” spectrum. His 26.0% known as strike price is because of a a lot totally different method. Let’s evaluate each pitchers’ cutter heatmaps to righties to see how this works:

Clearly, Patrick is working the periphery towards righties, and Walker is both attempting to try this or he’s extra assured in letting the pitch work extra of the zone. Let’s get extra of the story and flip the heatmaps to view every pitcher’s cutter towards lefties:

Patrick is definitely bringing the cutter within the zone extra usually towards lefties, however Taijuan remains to be letting it eat. One other approach to consider evaluating this method is in every pitch’s zone price, and PitcherList supplies a pleasant L/R cut up for pitchers:

So clearly, the “C” in Chad stands for “Right here comes the Cutter.” Patrick’s 45.2% general cutter utilization is second amongst certified pitchers, to solely Corbin Burnes‘ 54.1%. However is extra actually higher? Nobody stated it was a contest, however it’s a competitors. Which pitch has carried out higher?

Walker wins in every class, however are you keen to name {that a} clear win? Each pitches have carried out fantastically effectively. Each restrict exhausting contact; the foremost league common HardHit% is 40.6%, and each have been stingy to hitters. Bored with wanting on the peripheral features of those two pitches and need to simply see them as an alternative? Okay, right here’s one thing enjoyable to do. Go to Chad Patrick’s baseball savant web page and click on the “Random Video” button underneath his image. What are the possibilities that you simply get a video of a cutter? Oh, it’s okay, keep right here on FanGraphs. I’ll present the hyperlinks:

Random Video 1

Random Video 2

Random Video 3 (the enjoyable one)

Are we nonetheless evaluating Cutters? Right here’s one view of Taijuan’s cuty to a righty:

Looked for Video 1

Now you’ve seen it. Are you able to inform how good it’s? Let’s let Stuff+ clarify that for our sorry human eyes. Patrick’s cutter scores out to a effectively above common 108, and Walker’s to a 96. Okay, okay, however which one is positioned higher? Location+ thinks Chad is a 100 and Taijuan is a 110. So, Stuff+ tells us that Patrick’s cutter is “nastier” and Location+ principally tells us what we already learn about every pitcher’s method. But when we use Baseball Savant to assist us visualize every pitch’s motion, we could also be getting nearer to crowning an FC:

No kidding? Patrick and Walker have an an identical motion profile, with every pitch gaining 4.1 extra inches of rise than the common righty and 0.8 extra inches of break. Right here now we have one other piece of proof that these two pitches are very related, but are being utilized in solely alternative ways. Taijuan Walker has been on our fantasy radar for years, however Patrick is a rookie, and if you wish to know if he’s a viable fantasy starter, look no additional than our personal FanGraphs consultants:

Jake Mailhot, Might thirteenth:

He’s survived by inducing a ton of weak contact within the air, which has served him effectively to date, but it surely’s additionally the identical reasony why his xFIP is 4.42, greater than a run larger than his ERA. Nonetheless, over his final three begins, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an excellent 4.67 and he’s improved as he’s adjusted to pitching within the large leagues for the primary time.

Jeff Zimmerman, Might 18th:

He’s been capable of hold the ball within the yard (26% GB%, 0.7 HR/9) and suppress his ERA (3.35 ERA, 4.63 xFIP). Streamable starter for now.

Paul Sporer, Might twenty first:

Undoubtedly seems like some smoke and mirrors right here w/the ERA and Okay-BB disconnect however a part of me believes in MIL’s capacity to domesticate these varieties w/Contreras behind the dish, their protection as an entire, and robust bullpen

So, which pitch is healthier? We gained’t know till the clock strikes “finish of season” and we return to your favourite approach of judging the goodness of a pitch. What we do know, fortunately, is that there’s lots of season left. Patrick could get discovered by righties. They might resolve to swing much less usually if they will determine his cutter. Taijuan could have a recreation or two the place he loses the texture, and people in zone cutters find yourself as out-of-yard taters. For now, each pitchers stay invaluable members of their rotations, Patrick with a 2.97 ERA and 1.25 WHIP and Taijuan with a 2.97 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, making it ever extra clear that there’s no proper strategy to make the most of a cutter.