The Cubs and Astros have reportedly agreed to a deal that can ship outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago, with infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Hayden Wesneski and prospect Cam Smith heading to Houston.
It’s a transfer that might have been utterly surprising as lately as a number of weeks in the past. Tucker has been a key a part of the Astros dynasty and among the best gamers in baseball in current seasons. However over the previous few weeks, studies emerged that the Astros have been keen to hearken to affords on Tucker as they regarded to stability their want to compete with some monetary considerations. It seems that talks ramped up rapidly and Houston discovered a suggestion they thought of too good to go up.
Tucker, 28 in January, was one in every of many excessive profile draft picks that went on to be a part of the championship nucleus in Houston. The membership aggressively tanked final decade, utilizing excessive draft picks to pick out gamers like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and others. After failing to signal Brady Aiken, their high choose in 2014, they obtained a compensation choose within the 2015 draft. That gave them two of the highest 5 picks in 2015, utilizing the second total choose to draft Alex Bregman and the fifth total choice on Tucker.
Each picks have been large successes, as Bregman and Tucker every established themselves as All-Star succesful large leaguers. This deal now formally ends Tucker’s tenure in Houston and would possibly poetically level to the top of Bregman’s as effectively. Houston determination makers have lengthy pointed to re-signing Bregman, who’s presently a free agent, as a high offseason precedence. Nonetheless, the 2 sides have reportedly remained far aside in negotiations and the pivot to Paredes would possibly sign that Bregman received’t be coming again to Houston in spite of everything.
Tucker, 28 in January, hit 89 dwelling runs over the 2021 to 2023 seasons. He hit precisely 30 within the first two of these campaigns after which 29 within the third. He additionally stole 69 bases in that point, had above common stroll and strikeout charges and robust protection. His mixed line in that point was .278/.353/.517, which led to a 138 wRC+, indicating he was 38% higher than league common. In 2024, he missed about three months on account of a shin fracture however his restricted efficiency was even stronger. He hit 23 dwelling runs in simply 78 video games and his .289/.408/.585 line led to a 180 wRC+.
Placing all of these traits collectively, Tucker was price about 5 wins above substitute in every of the 2021-2023 seasons, per FanGraphs. In 2024, he racked up 4.2 fWAR though he missed roughly half the yr. His 19.1 fWAR over the 2021-2024 stretch places him thirteenth amongst MLB place gamers, although he performed fewer video games than everybody forward of him, because of that damage absence.
In contrast to another golf equipment, the Astros have proven a willingness to let their star gamers go receives a commission elsewhere. They did that with Correa, Springer and Gerrit Cole, who went on to signal with the Twins, Blue Jays and Yankees, respectively. That has aligned with a common reluctance to offer out huge offers or pay the aggressive stability tax. As proven in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Jose Altuve’s 2018 extension price $157.5MM over six years is the largest deal in franchise historical past, each when it comes to years and {dollars}. The Astros went over the CBT line in 2020 however didn’t pay any taxes because the system was placed on maintain within the shortened season. 2024 was the primary time they went over the road and truly needed to pay the tax.
Coming into this winter, common supervisor Dana Brown recommended the membership wanted wanted to “get slightly bit inventive” with the price range. Proprietor Jim Crane later pushed again on that stance a bit, however it seems the monetary constraints are actual. Reporting has indicated that the Astros made a suggestion to Bregman of $156MM however that he’s in search of one thing nearer to $200MM.
Tucker’s incomes energy subsequent winter is prone to be even greater than Bregman’s is now. Bregman goes into his age-31 season now whereas Tucker will probably be going into his age-29 marketing campaign subsequent winter.
It’s attainable the Astros determined they weren’t prone to get a long-term deal accomplished with both participant and explored commerce talks with Tucker, with this provide ticking loads of bins for them. It clears Tucker’s wage, which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz initiatives for $15.8MM, off the 2025 books. Redirecting these financial savings to Bregman remains to be attainable however they’ve additionally discovered themselves a possible substitute in Paredes.
Over the previous three years, Paredes has hit 70 dwelling runs and slashed .234/.338/.437 for a 123 wRC+. He’s additionally bounced across the infield, although has been at third base greater than anyplace else. His protection on the sizzling nook has been near common however it’s nonetheless made him roughly a 3-4 fWAR participant lately. He’s projected to make $6.9MM through arbitration subsequent yr and will be managed for 2 extra seasons past that.
Going to Houston is likely to be an particularly good match for him, given that the majority of his dwelling run energy comes through pulling the ball in direction of the sector foul pole. As identified by Sarah Langs of MLB.com, his dwelling run whole of 19 in 2024 would have been 26 if he performed all his video games in Houston and will make the most of the Crawford Packing containers.
It’s nonetheless attainable that Houston might re-sign Bregman and transfer Paredes over to first base, for the reason that membership can also be in search of assist there, however time will inform how viable that’s. Houston might discover cheaper options at first base and go away Paredes at third for the following few seasons.
The acquisition of Smith additionally supplies the Astros with a possible third baseman for the long run. He was simply drafted by the Cubs with the 14th total choose a number of months in the past and slashed .313/.396/.609 in his skilled debut, entering into 32 video games throughout three totally different ranges, ending at Double-A. If the Astros stick to Paredes at third, Smith might push him for the job within the coming years, with Paredes finally getting moved throughout the diamond.
The Astros additionally add a little bit of pitching depth within the deal through Wesneski. The 27-year-old has respectable underlying charges up to now in his profession however issues with the lengthy ball have pushed plenty of runs throughout the plate. In 190 innings up to now in his profession, he has a 23% strikeout price, 7.6% stroll price and 43% floor ball price. However 35 dwelling runs, a price of 16.7% per fly ball, have led to a 3.93 ERA. If the Astros will help him maintain the ball within the park, he will be part of their pitching employees for years to return. He has lower than two years of service time and might due to this fact be retained for one more 5 seasons.
The membership has loads of query marks with its pitching proper now. Every of McCullers, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier and J.P. France missed all or a part of 2024 on account of notable arm surgical procedures, so every of these guys is a query mark heading into 2025. Framber Valdez can also be a commerce candidate in the identical vein as Tucker, since he’s set to make an eight-figure wage and is one yr away from free company. Hunter Brown had an uneven season this yr. Ronel Blanco was big for Houston however is pretty restricted when it comes to beginning expertise. Spencer Arrighetti was respectable in his rookie yr however it’s arduous to financial institution on him at this level.
Within the bullpen, Ryan Pressly is one other commerce candidate. He’s set to make $14MM subsequent yr, the ultimate season of his deal. Wesneski has labored each as a starter and as a reliever in his profession, so he will help Houston in both division.
For the Cubs, it’s loads to surrender, and that’s very true when trying again to their acquisition of Paredes. They only despatched Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson to the Rays a number of months in the past, getting Paredes forward of the summer season deadline. In a way, they’ve given up these three gamers plus Smith and Wesneski with the intention to get only one season of Tucker.
However there are good explanation why they’ve paid such a worth. The membership has been hovering round .500 lately, having a squad full of excellent gamers however missing in really elite ones. Additionally they possess a really sturdy pipeline of prospects, a number of of whom are pushing for main league taking part in time. They’ve proven a reluctance to pay high greenback without spending a dime brokers, so a giant commerce has appeared like one of the best ways for them to improve the roster.
Tucker definitely qualifies. As talked about, he has been among the best place gamers within the majors lately and instantly turns into one of the best participant for the Cubbies. Maybe the Cubs will look to work out an extension with Tucker however that might require a really notable contract, the sort they haven’t given out lately. Even when Tucker is barely at Wrigley for one yr, the Cubs will at the very least be capable to recoup draft choose compensation by issuing him the qualifying provide after 2025.
Along with that, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is within the closing yr of his contract. With the Cardinals taking their foot of the fuel pedal subsequent yr and the Reds and Pirates nonetheless struggling to return out of rebuilds, there’s a window for the Cubs to take a step ahead, push the Brewers for the division and get Hoyer some additional job safety.
It’s additionally attainable that they received’t miss any of the items they gave up an excessive amount of, though they make loads of sense for Houston. As talked about, the Cubs have a wonderful farm system. On Baseball America’s High 100, they presently have six gamers on the checklist, which doesn’t even embrace Smith. Although it absolutely hurts to surrender their most up-to-date first spherical choose, the farm remains to be in good condition total.
That farm may also be capable to present a right away Paredes substitute. One of many membership’s high prospects is Matt Shaw, who has performed a little bit of center infield however a bit extra at third. He cut up final season between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .284/.379/.488 for a 146 wRC+. If the Cubs really feel Shaw is able to make the bounce to the majors, that will have made Paredes expendable. Wesneski can also be a proficient pitcher however he’s been squeezed from the rotation plans in Chicago and largely stored in a swing function.
It’s an enormous transfer for each golf equipment and can absolutely result in extra, particularly for the Cubs. They already had a crowded outfield combine even earlier than including Tucker into it. Additionally they have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger, to not point out prospects Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcántara and Owen Caissie. They’ve reportedly been making an attempt to work out a deal involving Bellinger or, to a lesser extent, Suzuki. Happ and Suzuki each have no-trade clauses, making them tough to maneuver. Bellinger has an opt-out after 2025, which additionally makes him a tough commerce candidate.
A technique or one other, a transfer from that group feels inevitable. The Yankees have been linked to each Tucker and Bellinger, so maybe they are going to now focus extra on the latter now that they didn’t get Tucker.
For the Astros, what’s nonetheless unknown is that if the door is completely closed to Bregman. It definitely looks like which may be the case, although it’s not not possible to see a path again to Houston. RosterResource estimates their aggressive stability tax quantity at $225MM, which is $16MM shy of subsequent yr’s $241MM base threshold. Signing Bregman will surely push them over, although not by as a lot now that Tucker’s gone. They may additionally theoretically decrease their quantity by buying and selling Valdez or Pressly. Then once more, they’ve been speaking about signing a brand new cope with Bregman for 2 years with out it occurring, so maybe that is the door lastly closing.
It’s additionally unknown if Houston is content material with its Tucker-less outfield. Yordan Alvarez is a powerful hitter however usually relegated to DH duties on account of ongoing knee points. Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick and Taylor Trammell are different choices on the roster, together with utility varieties like Mauricio Dubón and Shay Whitcomb. The group clearly appears to be like weaker with out Tucker in it, so maybe the Astros will look to bolster the group within the coming weeks and months.
Time will inform how the transfer performs out within the full offseason for each golf equipment. However for at this time, the Cubs have added an enormous expertise to the roster with out giving up something really heartbreaking. The Astros have misplaced that massive expertise however might have made up a good quantity of his worth within the quick time period whereas clearly serving to themselves in the long run.
Bruce Levine of 670 The Rating reported this morning that the Cubs and Astros have been “circling” on a deal involving Tucker, Paredes and Smith. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first talked about Wesneski’s inclusion. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the deal was accomplished.
