Corner Report: Third Base Preview

I participated in my house league draft just lately. It’s not an knowledgeable league, or an business league, or something like that. It’s only a regular group of individuals, one in all whom is my 71 yr outdated dad who took pitchers along with his first 8 picks. Random issues occur, however right here’s the place the corners glided by spherical in a 14 workforce OBP league:

Spherical 1: Jose Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Spherical 2: Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Rafael Devers

Spherical 3: Austin Riley, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Pete Alonso, Manny Machado

Spherical 4: None! So it’s get one early or wait.

Spherical 5: Jordan Westburg however as a 2B

Spherical 6: Josh Naylor, Cody Bellinger, Alex Bregman

Spherical 7: Triston Casas, Junior Caminero; now we transfer previous decide 100 for reference

Spherical 8: Christian Walker, Vinnie Pasquantino, Jake Burger

Spherical 9: Isaac Paredes, Yandy Diaz

Spherical 10: Royce Lewis (autopick), Matt Chapman

Spherical 11: Alec Bohm

Spherical 12: Matt Shaw, Paul Goldschmidt (lol)

Spherical 13: Michael Busch, Spencer Steer, Eugenio Suarez, Nolan Arenado, Nathaniel Lowe

Spherical 14: none

After 200 notables: Christopher Morel 198 (Cub fan bias, ignore Morel), Ryan Mountcastle 245

Perhaps that’s useful for you as you enter draft season. Based mostly on this draft, and confirmed in Razzslam and TGFBI, in case you don’t get a prime bat within the corners simply sit for some time and get different good gamers. There are lots of choices later.

Let’s soar proper to it. Listed below are over 1000 extra phrases on a number of third basemen.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Draft all of the 3B you possibly can deal with in a Razzball Commenter League, like THIS ONE drafting this Friday (3/21) at 8 PM ET that wants yet one more supervisor to affix! Simply click on the hyperlink, and also you’re in!

Elite Elite:

Jose Ramirez: Has the right mix of each class and has proven no indicators of slowing down. Draft him within the first spherical with absolute confidence.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Qualifies right here and he’s a slam dunk within the first spherical. I’m unsure why he’s slipped. He’s an elite 4 class contributor with eligibility in two positions that lack elite choices. I’d take Vladito within the prime 5. In TGFBI, I used to be thrilled to seek out him obtainable at decide ten. However hey, in case you don’t like elite numbers, you do you!

Good Elite:

Why is Rafael Devers getting light? He’s solely 29 and has been a gradual .270 hitter with 30 bombs for like, ever. There was a dip as a consequence of shoulder soreness as a consequence of diving on protection. Perhaps he shouldn’t hustle? He’s the third rated third baseman right here. There’s .290/40 HR with 200 mixed runs/RBI mixed. There are just a few gamers like that obtainable in any respect.

Replace: effectively, he’s behind on his spring development. Keep watch over this man.

Austin Riley: Additionally is because of rebound. He posted 16 HR and a .942 OPS within the 57 video games proper earlier than his season ended as a consequence of successful by pitch. He’ll be his regular 35-40 HR, 100 RBI self.

Manny Machado will probably be nice by the top of the season after he will get by his Annual Prolonged Hunch. Final yr was Could, the place he had a .280 OBP and 1 lonely dinger. 2023 was additionally Could. 2022 he hit one in July. 2021, appears like August! Effectively in case you maintain going backwards right here, his chilly streak is getting earlier and earlier, so perhaps now it simply can’t get earlier and it simply received’t occur. Anyway. Take Machado, he’s good.

I Don’t Belief These Guys

Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been round a .240-.250 bat till the top of the season in New York. Pardon my skepticism if I’m going with the bigger pattern measurement of 5 years in comparison with two months! Then, think about his video games performed (final yr’s 147 was a profession excessive by 20) and there’s actually no motive to draft this man within the first two rounds. Why would you try this to your self? He’s acquired steals, however everybody has them these days. I can see the case for him, I simply disagree right here. Simply seems like his value is simply too excessive after his profession season.

Jordan Westburg: Simply don’t belief a man with a 4% stroll charge (decreased from 7% the yr earlier than). He’s additionally battling probably mattress induced again points this preseason. I simply see him not progressing from what he did final yr. Draft him anticipating that and also you received’t be disenchanted. He’s sadly being drafted assuming he’ll progress, which won’t occur barring a plate strategy adjustment.

Royce Lewis: 58 video games and 82 video games. ACL, ACL once more, indirect, hamstring, quad, groin, quad once more. I’m unsure his legs will maintain up….and he’s already harm in Spring Coaching.

Guys I’d Be Snug Beginning

Junior Caminero: Dangerous to depend on a rookie, however the man has the pedigree and put up a 119 WRC+ at age 20. I don’t play in a WRC+ league, but it surely does mirror some excessive stage expertise. He’s projected for round 30 HR and a batting common within the .250s. That’s by laptop fashions. Should you go to projections by actual life folks like Gray, the typical is .264, and the RBI and runs within the 80s. That’s a baseline for what to anticipate, and guys along with his stage of expertise can break by that wall. Draft with the unwarranted confidence of Elon Musk rizzing up baddies.

Alex Bregman: Boston is an effective spot for him. I’m searching for the batting common to extend in a wage drive season. If he can keep away from a gradual begin like he had final season, a .280 common with mid 20s house runs and supporting lineup.

Mark Vientos: I like Vientos, and suppose he’ll be a strong participant. There’s lots of optimistic dialog, so simply going to level out that he was a lifeless fastball hitter final season (.329, 18 HR) and never so good towards breakers (.169, 6 HR). I don’t know why you’d throw Vientos a heater so he’ll most likely have some type of adjustment. He’s within the backside 4th percentile for whiffs and does strike out 30% of the time. Most likely secure with the facility, however there’s a huge batting common danger right here. Draft him, however be sure to handle the typical to stability him out.

Alec Bohm: Pure common and RBI play. Inferior to Luis Arraez, however he’ll be round 90 ribbies and that’s not unhealthy. He can be nook infielder slot man in case you had Vientos and, say, Matt Olson at first base.

Attainable Breakouts

Josh Jung: Look, I do know I did this final season however hear me out. Earlier than he was hit by a pitch within the wrist, he was hitting over .400. No I don’t care that it was solely in 4 video games, that doesn’t match my narrative. The place we actually ought to look is September, after the rust was shaken off. .286/.355/.464 for that month was the entire. Look, I do know caveats apply, however in case you favored Jung final season there’s ample motive to regurgitate the sensation once more in 2025.

Isaac Paredes: Fellow Cub followers won’t keep in mind I-Suck Paredes fondly from his time in Chicago. There’s good motive for that. He was unhealthy. Wrigley Area didn’t play effectively for offense final season, and Paredes grew to become a prepare wreck when he got here to bat and the wind was at all times blowing in. He has a really excessive fly ball share, and never lots of exit velocity, so his strategy was simply terrible for a way issues performed out. Houston has no such issues, and he ought to be capable of return to his 30 HR methods immediately. Don’t fear about final season. It was only a blip.

Christopher Morel: Let’s say that you simply have been altering your strategy for one thing for the higher. The outcomes aren’t there, but it surely’s promised that they’ll come in case you maintain the method. The method continues to not work, and also you panic and abandon the method. That was Morel with a plate strategy final season. Perhaps, simply perhaps, Tampa Bay will reign him in.

Connor Norby: The previous East Carolina Pirate will man third base in Miami. He was a prime 100 man however actually must work on the 33% strikeout charge if he’s going to be value proudly owning. If he does, he can use his prime notch pace to run wild in Florida. Spec play, positive, however he had his adjustment interval final season. Price a shot.

Prospects: Not going to faux I do know these guys, we now have an Itch for all issues like Matt Shaw and Coby Mayo. As soon as they stand up, then they’ll get ranked and the funsies. Proper now Matt Shaw is competing for the Cubs spot, and Mayo appears unlikely to interrupt with Baltimore however must be the primary man up if wanted.

The Ranks:

Rank
Title
Notes

1
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

2
Jose Ramirez

3
Austin Riley

4
Rafael Devers

Pending shoulder points decision, if he misses the beginning transfer him to love 8

6
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

7
Junior Caminero

8
Mark Vientos

9
Jake Burger

11
Alex Bregman