Ceddanne Rafaela Can Jump | FanGraphs Baseball

Ceddanne Rafaela can bounce. He can certain up and over a excessive outfield wall to rob a house run. He can leap ahead to safe a ball that in any other case would have fallen out of his attain. He can spring up like a cat to show a double play after laying out for a catch. However none of these jumps are the type I’m referring to. I’m speaking about this:

Within the GIF you simply watched, Rafaela travels greater than 100 ft in lower than 5 seconds to rob Bo Bichette of additional bases. It’s a surprising catch. It might have been a troublesome sufficient play for the Gold Glove winner in proper area, not to mention for Rafaela coming over from heart. That ball had an anticipated batting common of .820 off the bat, and simply look how far-off Wilyer Abreu is when he realizes all he can do is again off and let his teammate work his magic. You don’t want Statcast to inform you that’s a five-star catch, and it stands out even among the many 9 five-star catches we’ve seen this 12 months. It was one in all solely three with a catch chance of 5%.

Rafaela’s slide into the outfield wall, the way in which he raised his glove in triumph, and the truth that this occurred on the primary pitch of the sport make this an endlessly rewatchable spotlight. But, what actually makes this catch so spectacular is the sheer quantity of floor he needed to cowl earlier than he may even think about reaching out for the ball. It’s not that he crashed into the Wasabi register proper area, however that he was wherever near the signal to start with. In different phrases, it’s all about his bounce.

Baseball Savant defines “outfielder bounce” because the variety of ft above or under common that an outfielder travels within the correct course within the first three seconds after a pitch is launched, on performs with a catch chance of 90% or tougher (two-star or above). It’s a precious metric as a result of it measures a ability that’s virtually not possible for followers to evaluate with the attention take a look at alone. Most of us watch most of our baseball on TV, a medium that often prevents us from seeing the place the outfielders are standing in the intervening time every pitch is launched. Except you’re watching a well-framed replay of a blinding catch (just like the one above), it’s uncommon that you simply’ll see an outfielder’s preliminary response to a ball coming his means. So, outfielder bounce is one in all my favourite Statcast instruments. If Rafaela frequents Baseball Savant, I’ve a sense it’s one in all his favorites too:

Up to now in 2025, Rafaela is the league chief in outfielder bounce, and it’s not significantly shut. At 6.2 ft above common, his bounce is longer than the median top of a serious league participant. Consider it this fashion: If Rafaela and a league-average outfield jumper have been each working for a similar ball from the identical start line, it will solely take three seconds for Rafaela to realize a lot floor that Mike Trout may comfortably lie down between the 2 outfielders. What’s extra, Rafaela’s common bounce places him 1.4 ft forward of the following finest jumper, Johan Rojas. Greater than half of certified outfielders fall inside 1.4 ft of league common, in both course. Rafaela’s jumps have been at the least 1.4 ft higher than the these of everybody else. The small-sample-size caveat that we tack on to virtually each article in April actually applies right here, but when we will marvel at what Randy Rodríguez is doing, we will marvel at Rafaela’s accomplishments too. Sustainable or not, nobody lucks into an awesome outfield bounce. You possibly can both transfer that quick or you possibly can’t. And Rafaela can.

Having mentioned that, Rafaela’s pace is definitely one thing of an enigma. One cause I discover his bounce numbers so fascinating is that, whereas he’s quick, I’ve by no means thought of him a first-rate speedster. His 28.3 ft/sec dash pace ranks within the 84th percentile this season. He has compiled simply 1.8 baserunning runs (BsR) via 201 profession video games. In his prospect days, evaluators disagreed about whether or not his pace was really elite (70 FV) or nearer to plus (60 FV). Right here at FanGraphs, Eric Longenhagen gave Rafaela a 60 grade in 2023 earlier than upping it to 70 a 12 months later. As these differing grades recommend, measuring pace is extra nuanced than one may suppose.

Courting again to his debut season in 2023, Rafaela ranks 72nd in dash pace amongst certified runners (min. 10 aggressive runs), placing him within the 84th percentile. In comparison with his fellow heart fielders, he ranks twenty third, simply barely touchdown him within the high half of qualifiers on the place. Nevertheless, his common time from house to first base ranks within the ninety fifth percentile of baserunners. That’s a pronounced distinction, particularly for a right-handed batter; most gamers whose house to first rankings are considerably higher than their dash pace rankings are lefties who’ve the benefit of their batter’s field being nearer to first base. Over the previous three seasons, solely 4 right-handed hitting outfielders have a house to first time as quick as Rafaela’s: Brandon Lockridge, Dairon Blanco, Byron Buxton, and Myles Straw.

In keeping with dash pace, Rafaela is at the least half a foot per second slower than any of these 4. He trails even additional behind in “bolts,” which Statcast defines as any run that clocks in above 30 ft/sec. Lockridge and Blanco have bolted in additional than half of their aggressive runs. Buxton and Straw have bolted in about 20% of their aggressive runs. In the meantime, Rafaela has solely bolted twice in his profession. That’s lower than 1% of his aggressive runs. Since 2023, just one participant on the Baseball Savant leaderboard has the next dash pace and a decrease bolt fee: Cubs rookie Matt Shaw, who has solely performed 18 profession video games.

So, Rafaela doesn’t attain the identical most speeds as the fellows we consider as elite runners, however he nonetheless covers floor — on the bases and within the area – sooner than most different gamers. Fast reactions and a capability to keep up his pace over a number of seconds, two issues measured by outfielder bounce, may assist clarify why. One factor we will say for sure is that it doesn’t have something to do with working environment friendly routes. Outfielder bounce may be break up into three elements: “response” (ft lined in any course throughout the first 1.5 seconds after pitch launch), “burst” (ft lined in any course throughout the subsequent 1.5 seconds), and “route” (ft lined towards probably the most direct path to the ball within the first three seconds). Rafaela leads the league in every of the primary two elements. His routes, nevertheless, put him among the many backside 10 certified outfielders. That’s clearly not an issue. In reality, as Davy Andrews discovered just a few years in the past, a excessive route rating is negatively correlated with OAA. As a rule, working as shortly as potential as quickly as potential is simpler than working within the precise proper course. Rafaela is the proof within the pudding.

To that finish, if Rafaela has any type of pace drawback, it may be getting the place he’s going too shortly. On this linked play from final season, he was about an inch or two previous the place he wanted to be when the ball reached his glove. It got here bouncing off his wrist, and inertia carried him into the wall. Right here’s an instance from this 12 months of one other play that despatched him crashing into the fence. He didn’t give himself time to decelerate, and a ball he may have performed off the wall become an embarrassing mistake:

Now comes the half you’ve been dreading: I’ve no selection however to inform you that Rafaela’s early-season bounce numbers are unsustainable. In 2024, he was the most effective jumpers within the majors, very like he’s proper now. He ranked fourth amongst certified fielders. His common bounce final 12 months? 3.3 ft above common. That’s solely barely greater than half of his present bounce rating. Outfield bounce dates again to 2016, and in that point, no participant (min. 10 alternatives) has ever completed a season with an outfield bounce above six ft. No certified outfielder (extra two-star alternatives than group video games divided by 5) has ever completed with an outfield bounce above 5 ft:

With all due respect to Rafaela, it’s exhausting to consider he’ll proceed to be this significantly better than some other main league outfielder from the previous 10 seasons. That mentioned, his common bounce may drop by greater than a foot, and he’d nonetheless have an opportunity to complete with one of the best outfield bounce numbers we’ve ever seen from a certified participant. Since he emerged as a high prospect throughout the 2022 marketing campaign, evaluators have had nothing however the highest of reward for Rafaela’s heart area protection. The group at Baseball America particularly took be aware of his jumps when rating him on the publication’s high 100 record in 2023, writing: “Rafaela’s nice jumps positioned him as the most effective defensive heart fielders in professional ball.”

Rafaela lived as much as these excessive expectations in his transient cup of espresso that 12 months. His common bounce in 2023 was a ridiculous 6.9 ft above common in seven alternatives. That’s compelling proof that what we’ve seen this 12 months, in one other seven alternatives, isn’t only a fluke. As for his decrease bounce rating in 2024, he has a reasonably good excuse. Rafaela solely began enjoying the outfield in 2021, and 2022 was the primary 12 months he performed greater than half of his video games in heart area. Whereas he performed a bit extra infield on the large league degree in 2023, he nonetheless spent the vast majority of his time within the outfield that season. In 2024, nevertheless, Rafaela performed extra innings at shortstop than at some other place, whereas additionally seeing time at second and third base.

Alex Cora acknowledged that what the Purple Sox have been asking of Rafaela was holding him again from reaching his full defensive potential. “We all know how good he may be at brief. We all know how nice he’s in heart area,” the skipper instructed reporters. “However the shifting round, it takes away from good jumps and being engaged.” Given the context, it appears Cora was speaking extra about Rafaela’s instincts struggling at shortstop than in heart. Nonetheless, the purpose stays: Taking part in a number of positions can take a toll on a participant. Now that Rafaela is solely enjoying heart area for the primary time in his profession, it’s not unreasonable to suppose he may get higher jumps than ever.

By way of 20 video games this season, Rafaela has already compiled 4 DRS, 3 OAA, and three FRV. He has been nothing wanting pleasant to look at within the outfield. Sadly, the identical can’t be mentioned of his efficiency on the plate. His self-discipline has been higher – his walks are up and his strikeouts are down – however he’s sending too many balls into the bottom. Over 74 journeys to the plate, he’s hit just one double, one triple, and one house run. A Fortieth-percentile xwOBA suggests he may very well be extra productive going ahead, but it surely’s exhausting to look previous his 67 wRC+. It will likely be even tougher for the Purple Sox to look previous once they have higher choices accessible. If/when Masataka Yoshida returns from the IL and/or Roman Anthony forces his strategy to the present, Rafaela’s glove may not be ample to earn him common enjoying time if his bat doesn’t come round. So, ensure to understand his unimaginable jumps whilst you can, and hopefully, he’ll begin hitting sufficient that we get to take pleasure in his protection for an entire lot longer.