Welcome to this week’s Purchase & Promote, the place this week’s theme is, “Oh, so that you assume you’re Sensible, Alec?” Sure I’ve not one, however two Alecs in my sells at this time, the place our buys are a mixture of waiver provides and purchase lows, although I acknowledge that Kurtz and possibly Ramirez had been already claimed way back, I attempt to do not forget that some leagues may be informal sufficient that they’re nonetheless round. By no means assume and all the time examine the wire, generally items will come your method. On to the record!
BUY
10-team
Brent Rooker (UT, Athletics)
YES I KNOW HE WAS DRAFTED. And I certain hope after a couple of ho-hum weeks he wasn’t dropped. However though his present line of .250 with 7 Residence Runs in 120 AB is kind of good, the truth that he’s been overshadowed by many different upstart hitters means he’s immediately a “boring” buy-low once I assume his fantasy worth might be among the many high hitters within the sport.
The primary motive is a bit sneaky because it includes the shiny new energy toy in Oakland. The arrival of Nick Kurtz has compelled each Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom to get reps within the outfield, and Rooker is already at 4 video games, which means he wants only one extra sport to qualify in lots of leagues. As soon as that occurs, the brand new eligibility will seemingly present up on his participant web page, so that you gained’t be capable of sneak his eligibility by folks. However be aware that, had he not been UT solely, he in all probability would have gone no less than a spherical earlier on draft day.
Even when his place wants nothing to you, since you’ve been blessed with not needing an improve at outfield or play in an all-utility slot league (does this really exist? I’m intrigued), his bat alone makes him a buy-low. Certain, you’ll be able to argue that it’s mildly regarding that he’s not fairly hitting final yr’s gargantuan energy numbers as his MaxEV is down from 113 mph to 110 mph, and his barrel% from 17% to 14%, However let’s face it, we sort of all knew final yr’s marketing campaign wasn’t repeatable, however may stave off the regression monster with the brand new park.
Studies on the park appear to point it ought to actually be a bandbox when the temperatures rise in the summertime, and Statcast likes Rooker greater than final yr, with a .285 xBA to go together with his precisely equivalent .557 xSLG. And so they don’t take the park components into impact, particularly with one they hardly even have knowledge on. He might be a good greater run manufacturing monster with the large bats of Soderstrom and Kurtz backing him with different improved hitters like Soderstrom, Wilson, and Luis Urias rounding issues out. I’d anticipate a .255-.260 with 40 homers and a handful of SBs with almost 200 R+RBI, and I’d attempt to flip a flashier man like Agustin Ramirez or Jordan Beck to get a high-floor slugger like Rooker in all leagues.
Sal Perez (C, Kansas Metropolis Royals)
He’s been one of many unluckiest gamers within the majors, and never simply because he’s hella sluggish (although, he actually IS hella sluggish). However the growing older champ nonetheless simply retains getting it accomplished, although some folks’s inherent ageism influencing assumptions might trigger some to wish to get out from Sal’s .225 AVG and simply 2 HR in 111 AB. A single take a look at his Statcast web page makes it relatively apparent why this makes him a primary buy-low and saves me some phrases.
However I’ll inform you anyway, as a result of I don’t like assigning homework. I’m the cool instructor, i even drop an occasional swear phrase in order that they assume I’m edgy (simply no swears right here, I’ll be good Nick, I promise!). He’s been crushing the ball however Statcast says he’s been horribly unfortunate, as his xBA is .309 and xSLG is .589. That’s 92nd and 94th percentile respectively, which I shouldn’t must inform you is nice… particularly contemplating that, bear in mind, that is CATCHER. Certain, he gained’t be in your wire until your proprietor is, um, impulsive (euphemism right here for “Dangerous at fantasy baseball”) however I’ve already despatched out a bunch of 2-for-2 trades attempting to money in on Raleigh and improve at one other place.
Bo Bichette (SS, Toronto Blue Jays)
There’s one thing mentally that occurs after we see a giant goose egg on the house run totals. However Bichette has been stinging the ball with a .339 xBA and .516 xSLG, so the homers will come. Purchase now whereas the stoop and pretend energy drought has instilled sufficient doubt to have the ability to get him at market value.
Agustin Ramirez (C, Miami Marlins)
Agustin, are you true, or are you Kyren Paris half 2? He’s already been taken with some ridiculous bids in most FAAB leagues, however in 10-team, there could also be leagues nonetheless during which folks have a tough time parting with their confirmed vets to make the leap, particularly as his batting common has plunged from it’s unsustainable highs earlier within the week. Given his elite bat pace, excessive contact fee, and aggressiveness on the basepaths, I’d in all probability rank him simply forward of J.T. Realmuto for now, acknowledging he’s far riskier but in addition far… reward-ier?
12-team
Jonathan Aranda (1B/2B, Tampa Bay Rays)
I do know that after seeing his current manufacturing decline, you in all probability want you bought excessive. However I’m assured he’ll flip it Aranda. Not like another scorching begins that rapidly flamed out and took the anticipated manufacturing with it, Aranda’s xwOBA hasn’t declined one bit, and stayed constantly over .400 (which is great) over his previous 50 PA.
Though I wish to be a bit skeptical that he can preserve a 95 mph Common EV, it’s value noting that he was comfortably between 45% and 50% HardHit% the previous two years after which his Max went up one other mile an hour to a career-best 111 mph. Given Brandon Lowe’s struggles, I feel he may even begin to eat into his time at 2B, and in leagues the place Aranda already has 2B eligibility, he’s immensely extra invaluable given the sorry state of the place (critically it’s onerous to think about one high 150 ADP second baseman who has really delivered on their draft day worth to date. This might find yourself trying like a poor man’s Joey Votto however with much less OBP, and once more, eligible in some at 2B.
Carson Kelly (C, Chicago Cubs)
I’m immediately nostalgic for TRL on MTV, as a result of proper now all I need is Carson Every day. Partial taking part in time share or not, there comes a degree when he retains hitting so outrageously that it’s important to think about that he would possibly simply be for actual. Though he’s actually in all probability the least possible candidate to be considered one of Statcast’s finest hitters, he’s at present sporting an insane 8% Ok% and even wilder 23% BB% which is tops in baseball, together with being 98th percentile or higher for his xAVG, xSLG, and HardHit%.
Certain possibly it’s cherry-picked since he’s been splitting at-bats nonetheless with Miguel Amaya for some motive, and absolutely it’ll regress, particularly since the concept the 30-year-old immediately turned the subsequent Aaron Choose is belied by the truth that his MaxEV is simply 106 mph, the bottom of his profession and truly even decrease than Luis Arraez. However he has had elite swing selections with each an extremely stingy 13% O-Swing% and an aggressive 73% Z-Swing%. Like, I don’t assume I’ve ever seen a Z-Swing% – O-Swing% pretty much as good as that (60%) since I began utilizing the shorthand stat. So although his 84% is simply barely higher than previous years, he has a career-best 7% SwStr%, and what’s really eye-popping his his 20% CSW%, which is 8% lower than final yr. Put that in your plate!
Now, with solely 63 AB, the pattern dimension continues to be small and this might all change quicky. However I do assume he’s distanced himself from Miguel Amaya as the popular possibility, particularly as he was initially valued for his superior protection.
Jorge Polanco (2B, Seattle Mariners)
He’s had an outstanding five-dinger week, and is now hitting an unreal .389/.423/.819 with 9 dwelling runs and 1 SB in 79 PA for the Mariners. Not like Carson Kelly, he’s been taking part in full-time, making it all of the extra spectacular, however what’s most spectacular, is he’s doing this whereas being Jorge Polanco. Y’know, the man who solely returned to Seattle as a result of nobody else remotely needed him.
Statcast really believes him all the way in which, with a algorithm-breaking .395 xBA and .755 xSLG, that are each finest in baseball. It’s value noting that in comparison with Kelly, I don’t see a majors change in his peripherals to justify the unbelievable drop of his Ok% from 29% in 2024 to simply 11% this yr. Whereas the 79% Contact% is his finest mark since 2021, the one actual change is extra aggressiveness within the zone, elevating his Z-Swing% from 63% to 72%, which has helped hold down his CSW%. Granted, it’s the 57% HardHit% that’s actually driving this streak, and I do have doubts if that’s sustainable, but when he’s in your wire, add him now anyway as a result of he’s the arguably the best-performing 2B within the majors to date.
15-team
Edgar Quero (C, Chicago White Sox)
Quero, te quiero. He was definitely the less-hyped possibility that Agustin, however he may find yourself quietly being the higher one. His 39% HardHit% and 0 barrels up to now do go away a bit to be desired, however his plate self-discipline up to now has been extraordinarily mature with a 22% O-Swing% and 71% Z-Swing%, mixed with an elite 90% Contact%.
It’s attainable if he can hold this up that might be a catcher-eligible Jacob Wilson besides with walks, which might definitely work for him in a hitter-friendly dwelling park. But it surely’s value noting that I anticipate the peripherals to regress as a result of his numbers and peripherals had been all considerably worse within the minors, with a 2024 contact% of 79%.
Nonetheless, he may no less than be what you hoped Gabriel Moreno this yr might be, somebody who hits .270-.290 with 1o+ homers, and there’s all the time upside for extra. Add in all two-catcher leagues and single-catcher 15-team codecs, particularly in OBP codecs.
Johan Rojas (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)
Rojas the Rabbit bought the chance he was ready for with Austin Hays discovering himself again on the IL virtually as quickly as he started (although an excellent week plus in between). Whereas Rojas nonetheless largely seemingly is what he all the time has been, a superb defender however punchless hitter who will get stolen bases very similar to Jacob Younger, there’s a likelihood there’s extra. He already set a brand new excessive MaxEV with a shocking 112 mph, almost two factors greater than his earlier finest, supported by a league-average 88 mph common EV and 33% HardHit%. And regardless of the unpleasant career-worst 27% Ok% fee, his underlying stats counsel he ought to be really posting profession bests there, as he immediately has an elite 94% Z-Contact% that’s up 8 factors from his profession 86%.
That offers him a plus Swinging Strike% of 8%, and an above-average CSW% of 25%, a giant bounce from his beforehand below-average fee of 30%. Provided that he’s nonetheless younger and creating at 25 years previous, he’s a sneaky buy-low in dynasty codecs, particularly since he’s elevating his launch angle. Whereas Statcast is pessimistic on him, they’re that method on virtually all speedsters, and I feel he’ll enhance from his unusually low line drive fee of 5% because it’s a usually noisy stat. He’s an ideal spec add or streamer for pace in 15-team batting common leagues.
Luis Urias (2B/3B, Athletics)
Sure, I do know I wrote him up final week as a deep leagues add, and I’m doubling down largely as a result of big bounce in Z-Contact% from 85% to 97% and a career-best 18% O-Swing% making him a stable damage alternative for Jordan Westburg with sneaky energy, particularly when that Sacramento dwelling park heats up and the A’s immediately superior offense will get even crazier.
Deep Leagues
Ramon Urias (3B, Baltimore Orioles)
Now that Westburg is down, Ramon, I’d wish to see Urias to the event. The Orioles’ Urias is fairly boring regardless of a scorching begin to the yr in batting common, and after a small stoop is now hitting .279 with one homer in 68 AB. Given the Orioles’ lineup, you’d in all probability anticipate a bit extra run manufacturing than his lackluster 8 RBI and 4 R, however even whereas ailing, the lineup nonetheless is respectable, and he ought to no less than be stable.
Andrew McCutchen (UT, Pittsburgh Pirates)
He’s a professional, he’s not only a mascot, and undoubtedly not a Andrew Mascotchen. His Statcast web page has loads of crimson and he’s hitting for top barrel charges and exit velocities, deserving higher than his already cromulent line of .275 with 3 HR and 1 SB in 91 AB. He’s in all probability viable in 15-team codecs as properly, however the main problem with him is his utility-only designation in most leagues. However regardless of that, the well-rounded offensive profile makes him a must-add in deeper leagues, until you roster one of many elite UTs and don’t have house to take him and maintain him ’til his commerce worth rises.
SELL
10-team
Xavier Edwards (SS, Miami Marlins)
Recently I’ve been calling him Dr. Xavier, as a result of his legs don’t work. So now he’s changing into considered one of my ex-men. Now, I get that possibly I’m being too harsh, provided that he does nonetheless have 6 SB on the yr even when he hasn’t accomplished a lot for me currently. Nonetheless, in comparison with final yr’s 31 SB in a partial season, in the event you extrapolated his present tempo to final yr’s PA complete, he’d solely have 14 stolen bases. However wait, I’ve excellent news! It was really 14.45, so in the event you like irresponsibly rounding up, it’s virtually half of final yr’s complete! Oh wait, now you’re crying, nice.
There are actually indicators that make me surprise if the batting common will no less than come again, as he’s hitting for an improved 88% contact% this yr, although it’s considerably canceled out by worse swing selections. He additionally improved his MaxEV by virtually 3 miles an hour, however his new MaxEV of 106 mph continues to be well-below league common, and he nonetheless in all probability gained’t hit any homers that aren’t inside-the-park. He had missed time with a sore knee earlier within the yr, and one wonders if he’s being much less aggressive to maintain it secure. He was caught in two of his previous three makes an attempt, so possibly he gained’t get the inexperienced gentle as usually. With out an elite stolen base complete, he turns into fully depending on batting common to have worth, and I’d a lot relatively take my probabilities on the Chandler Simpsons and Victor Scotts who no less than appear to supply extra class juice, and on the shortstop place, I’d a lot relatively have a extra well-rounded participant who isn’t an absolute zero in energy, like Jeremy Pena (possibly too late to get him) or Dansby.
Alec Bohm (3B, Philadelphia Phillies)
Look, I’ve realized about dialectics in remedy coaching, and two issues might be true. Bohm might be unfortunate and certain to enhance, and but nonetheless be a participant we are able to drop. Like, he’s hitting the ball tougher than ever, YES! He’s additionally really additionally making extra contact, with a career-best 88% Contact% and 6% SwStr%. And but, there he’s, sitting in my 12-teamer, with not a single homer, and after a month has passed by, can you actually nonetheless maintain a participant like this? Statcast says he’s unfortunate, however the batting common he deserves is just not .300, however relatively .268, with an improved xSLG of .398. However wait, that’s nonetheless not good.
Given his lack of contribution on the basepaths, he simply is simply too onerous to carry over a few of the attention-grabbing new 3B choices which can be rising. The factor about dropping him is that in a 10-team format, you’ll be able to in all probability look ahead to him to lastly warmth up and nonetheless decide him up then, as a result of the floor stats nonetheless look so drab. I’ll say I feel the stroll fee ought to enhance given his sturdy chase fee, and I really feel conflicted about this promote name, however I merely assume that the best-case situation upside is simply not sufficient to make him 10-team viable, particularly in OBP codecs, and he’s arguably close to the chopping block in 12-team OBP as properly relying on the alternate options.
12-team
Jorge Soler (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
Jorge’s peripherals are making me So-leery of him. He was considered one of my favourite preseason targets as a rebound candidate given his sturdy underlying stats final yr, however it’s trying like age could also be catching as much as him. His rolling wOBA has simply been tumbling downhill. His 31% Ok% appears to be the primary offender, as that’s a giant decline from his way more satisfactory 25% Ok% final yr. However even so far as the uncooked energy goes, his 113 mph MaxEV this yr is down from his mark of 115 mph final yr, and it’s seeming apparent he gained’t recapture the 117 mph of his peak seasons. Though I preferred him for the park improve, I don’t belief the Angels hitting teaching to repair him.
Jasson Dominguez (OF, New York Yankees)
On the finish of the day, The Martian appears to be like just like the Merely Pedestrian. Though he’s nonetheless 22 and he does no less than have a robust 50% HardHit%, his Statcast web page appears to be like as blue and white as pinstripes. His Achilles Heel could also be his contact struggles, as a 32% Ok% is a serious drawback, and his ho-hum 2 HR and three SB aren’t sufficient to compensate, particularly on this atmosphere. An optimist can level to his improved launch angle, however I simply don’t see sufficient right here to assume he’s related in 12-team batting common league redrafts, particularly not in three-outfielder codecs.
15-team
Kameron Misner (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
Miss the chance to promote excessive on him now and also you would possibly find yourself being Misnerable. He’s a kind of scorching begin gamers who hasn’t cooled off quickly sufficient for it to as a result of apparent. however he’s undoubtedly outperforming his anticipated stats together with his .311 AVG and .554 SLG%. Statcast appears to be like at that and fa… passes fuel in its normal course with a .230 xBA and .400 xSLG. Though his 72% Contact% is satisfactory, I feel his swing selections are missing, resulting in a mediocre 30% CSW% and a mediocre batted ball high quality. Given his pop-up nature, you in all probability can’t get a lot in a commerce for him, however I nonetheless assume in the event you wait longer, you’ll get much less.
Alec Burleson (1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
His taking part in time scenario makes me wish to Alec hurl, son. The puns worsen as my deep league morale declines. If you happen to take a look at his hitting backside line, you in all probability wouldn’t see an issue… no less than till you appeared on the complete plate appearances or sport logs. He merely hasn’t performed a lot in any respect the previous few weeks, supposedly as a result of his poor protection. Given his sturdy season final yr, it may appear a bit shocking they’d kneecap the burly contact hitter. However I see what they see behind the plate.
He hasn’t hit a single barrel this yr, and although he wasn’t a high-barrel participant final yr, that’s fairly surprising for a participant of his kind a month into the season. His HardHit% can also be down to simply 35%, and his chase fee additionally went as much as an unpleasant 41%. He’s sort of caught in not having sufficient energy or contact capacity to be greater than alternative degree, after which the protection is simply the ultimate nail.
Deep Leagues
Javier Sanoja (OF, Miami Marlins)
Guten tag, glad his title isn’t Miguel, as a result of he’s the alternative of Sano, ja? is a little bit of a Idiot’s Gold pickup, which is simply too unhealthy as a result of he was considered one of my favourite deep sleepers within the preseason, however now’s succeeding regardless of not doing any of the issues I preferred. After a sluggish begin, he began turning some deep league heads after hitting .314 with 1 HR and 1 SB in 55 PA. The 22-year-old has actually zero energy, like Xavier Edwards, however with out his pace.
I hoped that possibly he’d run like he did a couple of years within the minors the place he stole 20 luggage. Nope. I assumed he’d hold a very low Ok% to strategy a .300 common. Nope. His excessive passivity has him solely swinging at 55% of strikes, whereas swinging at 33% of balls. So whereas his SwStr% is a robust 6%, his CSW% which I care extra about, is under common at 30% (league common is about 28%). With out limiting strikeouts, I don’t belief the common, and neither does Statcast as he has an xBA of .254. He’s nothing greater than a last-resort roster filler in deep leagues as a man who can get at-bats or in dynasty leagues the place you hope he can discuss to hitting coaches and decide up Javier SomeKnow-How.
Alan Roden (OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
There’s no valor or honor in watching 47 Roden. He was a well-liked decide within the spring, hoping he may pull off a weight loss program Steven Kwan as a man who may kitchen sink his option to worth, however as soon as the true season rolled round, he stopped hitting the ball with authority, and now Varsho’s again to make foolish wonderful falling catches and remove Roden’s taking part in time.
Kyle Isbel (OF, Kansas Metropolis Royals)
Perhaps you take a look at final yr and may inform your self a narrative of deep league worth, particularly since he’s racking up at-bats. However he’s notably worse than least yr in virtually each method besides the floor stats, because of an enormous drop in his onerous contact to simply 85 mph AVG EV, 26% HardHit%, and a pair of% Barrel%. He might lead the league in getting his bat knocked out of his palms.
