The Royals have gained the Wild Card collection, and the Orioles’ playoff woes proceed. However Baltimore has a really vibrant future forward of them if they will simply get some extra pitching. Loads of folks shall be speaking and writing in regards to the upcoming collection with the Yankees, however I wish to speak about Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. earlier than shifting on to the subsequent set of video games. They’re clearly two of the very best younger stars within the recreation, and together with Elly De La Cruz they’re organising shortstop to be one of many star-studded positions of this coming period of baseball.
Each Bobby and Gunnar had phenomenal seasons, nobody will argue with that. In WAR, as calculated by Fangraphs, they completed second (10.4 fWAR) and fifth (8.0) respectively. Most years that might imply considered one of them was getting an MVP trophy, however in all probability not this 12 months. Baseball-Reference likes Henderson a bit extra and has him at 9.1 wins, and so they like Witt a bit much less at 9.4 wins. Both means, each had been very, superb. They took completely different paths to these glowing top-line numbers, so let’s check out their seasons in some extra depth.
Gunnar Henderson was straight mashing baseballs early within the season. He hit 10 homers by the tip of April, 8 extra in Might, and eight once more in June. By the All-Star break he had 28 bombs and was trying like he had a shot at MVP. After the break, his energy dropped off considerably and he ended the 12 months with 37 house runs. That Fangraphs WAR quantity above was already at 5.7 in mid-July, so ending up at 8.0 meant his tempo dropped means off down the stretch. Naturally, the query then turns into which half ought to we consider in additional?
The house run charge that Henderson was managing within the first half was partially a mirage. His HR/FP charge was 31.1%, properly above his profession charge of 21.6%. Some gamers can keep a charge up 30%, however they are typically named Aaron Choose or Shohei Ohtani. There are gamers right here and there that handle it for a full season, like Teoscar Hernandez in 2020, however these often grow to be fluky except somebody establishes themselves as an elite energy man and may do it repeatedly. I don’t assume 23-year-old Gunnar Henderson is that man, however possibly in his peak energy years he shall be. He positively hits the ball exhausting:
There’s a lot to love there on his Baseball Savant web page. His launch angle is fairly low on common nonetheless, and a number of his homers come from taking part in in Camden Yards. It favors left-handed energy with a park issue of 111 for house runs in the event you isolate left handed batters. I believe a 28-year-old Henderson might need grown into some extra energy and has begun placing up some critical energy numbers, however he has not fairly proven that he can maintain it the best way the elite energy guys do but. His rookie-year splits weren’t fairly so excessive, and so they had been flipped. He struggled a bit out of the gate after which bought sizzling in June earlier than leveling out posting 125, 123, and 125 wRC+ values in July, August, and September. His second half was much less regular this 12 months, however the general variety of 131 is true consistent with his rookie season. For now, I’d say he’s an excellent hitter, however not within the prime tier due to the launch angle and a bit an excessive amount of swing-and-miss.
Bobby Witt Jr. has taken a really completely different path to stardom. His rookie 12 months was means much less spectacular and on the finish of 2023, most individuals would have anticipated him to be the lesser participant of the 2 in 2024. That second-half surge that Bobby had in his second full season carried over to this 12 months nonetheless, and he has been the very best participant in baseball for the reason that 2023 All-Star break posting 13.7 fWAR throughout 229 video games. Gunnar Henderson is quantity 5 in fWAR throughout that stretch, so we’d simply be heading right into a world the place they’re the preeminent skills within the recreation (non-Ohtani division) battling for shortstop supremacy. Francisco Lindor is true there with them too. It’s form of just like the late Nineteen Nineties when A-Rod and Nomar confirmed up and everybody thought a brand new breed of power-hitting shortstops was going to alter baseball perpetually, and possibly they did.
Again to Bobby, he has been actually good now for a 12 months and a half, however it’s greater than that. In 2024 his worst month was September when he nonetheless hit .278/.371/.444 for a 126 wRC+. He has now been an above-average hitter for 9 consecutive months, and means above common for many of them. He’s additionally solely behind Dansby Swanson in Baseball Savant fielding run worth for shortstops, so whereas I preserve pondering he’s the very best defensive shortstop within the recreation , I ought to in all probability modify that to “one of many prime shortstops within the recreation.” Swanson has been persistently on the prime for the final three years. I’d plant my flag proper now that Bobby Witt Jr. goes to be within the dialog for the very best participant of his technology, although there’s going to be some stiff competitors.
Now what we want is the Royals and Orioles to fulfill within the playoffs 5 extra instances over the subsequent decade and develop a real rivalry. It will be nice to have the 2 greatest shortstops within the AL battling 12 months in and 12 months out. Spherical one went to Bobby, however the Orioles are set as much as be powerful for years to come back.
