It’s been a quiet winter for Jurickson Profar to date, however with fellow outfielders Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O’Neill all off the board now, Profar stands as the highest nook outfield bat available on the market. The Blue Jays, who simply signed Santander for 5 years, and the Astros are among the many groups with curiosity within the switch-hitting Profar, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported on the MLB Community this morning (video hyperlink). The incumbent Padres have additionally been tied to Profar this winter and really clearly love him as a participant and particular person, nevertheless it’s removed from clear the entrance workplace may have that form of spending energy. The Friars have reportedly been working to cut back payroll this winter, and that was earlier than latest possession tumult.
Profar, 32 subsequent month, is recent off a profession yr the place he improved in nearly each measurable class. His .280 common, .380 on-base share and .459 slugging share all ranked as career-best marks. The previous high prospect made huge good points in exit velocity, barrel charge and hard-hit charge, all whereas posting his greatest stroll charge (11.4%) since 2021 and his lowest strikeout charge (15.1%) since 2020. Profar has lengthy had a plus eye and wonderful bat-to-ball abilities, however the contact he made was usually missing punch. That wasn’t in any respect the case in 2024, as he swatted a career-high 24 homers and tacked on 29 doubles in 158 video games/668 plate appearances.
The match with Toronto isn’t as clear with Santander now within the fold on a $92.5MM contract, however there’s nonetheless room to maneuver issues round. Taking part in Santander commonly in proper area — or having Santander and George Springer cut up time between proper area and designated hitter — would open up left area for Profar (who may see occasional DH time himself). That’d probably come on the expense of taking part in time for Nathan Lukes and Will Wagner, however Profar can be a pronounced improve over each if he can replicate and even approximate final yr’s breakout displaying.
Payroll-wise, the Jays’ signing of Santander pushed them up into the second tier of luxurious penalization. They very narrowly dipped underneath the tax line in 2024, resetting their penalty degree within the course of, which means they’d be on the hook for a 32% for any {dollars} allotted to Profar (or one other free agent). They’re presently projected by RosterResource at $237MM of Opening Day payroll, which might be a membership file.
Turning to Houston, their outfield is a transparent weak spot on the roster — at the least on paper — following the commerce of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Houston may have Jake Meyer in heart area, the place he’ll be flanked by a mix of Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubon. Different choices on the 40-man roster embody Kenedy Corona, Pedro Leon and Cooper Hummel. Clearly, an improve can be a worthwhile pursuit.
Possession’s wherewithal to make such an addition is an open query. Jim Crane has stated he’s open to paying the posh tax for a second straight season — and simply the second time in his possession tenure — however there’s been combined messaging with regard to his actions. On the one hand, Houston provided Alex Bregman a reported six-year, $156MM contract. That’s a professional supply, and the corresponding $26MM common annual worth would’ve despatched the ’Stros careening into the center tiers of luxurious penalty.
However, buying and selling Tucker, even with an extension unlikely, represents a step in the other way. Granted, that swap helped to pave the best way for the signing of Christian Walker on a three-year, $60MM deal. However, it may be argued that if Crane have been actually amenable to stepping over that tax threshold, he may’ve match Tucker and Walker onto the roster. The group has additionally been procuring reliever Ryan Pressly all through the offseason, and normal supervisor Dana Brown even kicked the winter off by talking of a must “get artistic” with payroll. None of these info portend a willingness to exceed the tax barrier — at the least not by any notable quantity.
As issues stand, RosterResource has the Astros over the tax threshold, however solely by a slim margin of about $3MM. A commerce of Pressly or one other participant — e.g. McCormick, Dubon, Victor Caratini — may drop them again underneath that line, nevertheless it’d be powerful to shoehorn Profar in underneath the barrier with out discovering a commerce associate for Pressly and one other participant. If Crane is keen to take a small CBT hit, figuring out dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero will assist them reset their penalty degree subsequent offseason, then transferring Pressly by itself is perhaps sufficient to make issues line up.
Time will inform how the marketplace for Profar performs out, however he’s now the most-productive left fielder nonetheless sitting available on the market. He’s reportedly been in search of a three-year pact. It’s unlikely that’d include the kind of AAV secured by Hernandez ($22MM) or Santander ($18.5MM), however one thing within the vary of O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract wouldn’t have appeared too outlandish coming into the offseason. With many groups already having crammed their roster wants, demand may not be adequate to get Profar to such heights, however a multi-year deal and eight-figure AAV nonetheless appear loads possible.