All through a disappointing season for the Blue Jays, the long-term way forward for stars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been a focus. Rumors surrounding the pair of second-generation stars dominated headlines early in the summertime because the Jays struggled, although they have been considerably quelled by GM Ross Atkins saying in early June that buying and selling both Guerrero or Bichette “doesn’t make any sense” for the group.
At the same time as their 2024 playoff hopes dwindled, the Jays solely offered off impending free brokers upfront of the commerce deadline. Yusei Kikuchi, Danny Jansen, Yimi Garcia and Trevor Richards have been all on the transfer. Bichette, Guerrero, Chris Bassitt, Kevin Gausman and others stayed put, with the clear indication being that the Blue Jays hope to retool this offseason and get again on monitor to contend in 2025.
Bichette and Guerrero are solely managed by way of the tip of the 2025 season, which has introduced continued hypothesis about the potential of one or each gamers being moved this winter. A number of the Guerrero hypothesis has died down within the weeks for the reason that commerce deadline, although. USA At the moment’s Bob Nightengale reported after the deadline that the crew nonetheless hoped to signal Guerrero long-term. Bassitt appeared on Chris Rose’s podcast and voiced his perception that though Guerrero has not but signed an extension, he certainly needs to be in Toronto long-term. Now, it seems Bichette’s teammates needn’t do any speaking or speculating on his behalf. He’s publicly making it clear that he hopes to remain in Toronto alongside his longtime good friend, Guerrero, and win a title as a Blue Jay.
“After I had time to consider what I would like, principally, my final aim actually is to play with Vladdy (Guerrero Jr.) endlessly, to win a championship with him and to do this with this group,” Bichette tells Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. “I’m one hundred pc dedicated to doing no matter it takes to perform these issues. That’s the place I’m at.”
As Davidi explores at size in a bit Jays followers, particularly, will wish to learn in its entirety, that units the 2024-25 offseason as one of the vital pivotal in franchise historical past with regard to participant personnel choices. There’s nothing that claims the Jays can’t let Guerrero and/or Bichette attain free company, check the market, after which re-sign each gamers anyhow — nevertheless it’s actually a better and extra managed course of once they’re not competing with an open market and different potential bidders for the 26-year-old Bichette and 25-year-old Guerrero.
From a payroll perspective, the Jays ought to have the ability to make twin extensions for the pair of former All-Stars work. Jose Berrios and Yariel Rodriguez are the one gamers signed past the 2026 season. Berrios, Rodriguez, the aforementioned Gausman and George Springer are the one 4 Blue Jays on assured contract past the 2025 marketing campaign. Toronto opened the 2024 season with a roughly $225MM payroll, at the moment sits at about $217MM after their deadline sell-off, and solely has about $124.5MM in commitments for the ’25 season in the meanwhile, per RosterResource.
That quantity notably doesn’t embrace an arbitration elevate for Guerrero — a determine that’ll doubtless shoot properly past $25MM on the heels of his excellent 2024 season. Arb raises for Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Genesis Cabrera, Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, Dillon Tate, Alek Manoah and Ernie Clement may all be within the offing as properly, although some members of that class will likely be non-tendered or traded.
Even when the majority of that class is retained, it’s affordable to assume that between arb raises and rounding out the roster with league-minimum gamers, the Blue Jays may nonetheless are available round $185-190MM in whole commitments. New contracts for Guerrero and/or Bichette wouldn’t essentially want to return with substantial raises till the 2026 season. That’d depart $35-40MM for the Blue Jays to nonetheless increase their current roster even whereas merely adhering to final yr’s payroll ranges.
In fact, nothing says that the payroll can’t and received’t rise. The Jays are owned by a multi-billion greenback firm — Rogers Communications — in idea giving them room to pursue nearly any participant they need (as we noticed with final offseason’s earnest pursuit of Shohei Ohtani). There’s no agency indication but that they plan to be aggressive bidders for prime free brokers like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Alex Bregman or Willy Adames, however there’s additionally no cause to assume they will’t swim within the deepest waters the free agent pool has to supply.
The query dealing with the Jays will likely be one in all how a lot they wish to tie up in long-term allocations. Extending both Guerrero or Bichette would presumably require signing mentioned gamers properly into the 2030s. So would signing Soto, whereas the remaining prime names available on the market may all signal by way of someplace within the 2030-32 vary if their markets come collectively as hoped. Lengthy-term offers for homegrown skills like Bichette and Guerrero will solely preserve the established order; it’s clear there are additional reinforcements wanted, so Atkins and president Mark Shapiro — assuming each keep in place after this yr’s disappointing marketing campaign — might want to stability potential extensions with the necessity to additional fortify a roster that fell woefully shy of expectations in 2024.
Apparent because it appears, it additionally bears emphasizing that Bichette’s pledge solely carries a lot weight. He doesn’t have any no-trade safety beneath the three-year, $33.6MM contract he signed to purchase out his three arbitration seasons. He has no direct say over whether or not he’ll even be in Toronto subsequent yr, not to mention for the subsequent six, seven, eight, 9 or ten years. On the similar time, his assertion to Davidi plainly underscores that he’s not solely open to however hopeful of signing a long-term deal to remain in Canada alongside his longtime teammate and good friend.
Bichette speaks to Davidi about reflecting throughout his present harm absence, considering again to his A-ball days with Guerrero when the 2 have been fresh-faced 18-year-olds speaking about profitable as many championships as attainable collectively. He provides that by way of reflection, he’s “discovered much more about myself by way of failure,” referencing his 2024 struggles, each by way of what he hopes to perform on the sector and as a pacesetter within the Blue Jays’ clubhouse. (Once more, Jays followers are inspired to learn the interview in full, because it’s rife with candid quotes and earnest self-assessment from Bichette.)
The 2024 season has certainly been an unpleasant one for Bichette. Even earlier than sustaining the calf harm that’s sidelined him for greater than a month (his second calf pressure of the season), he was stumbling by way of the worst season of his skilled profession. In 331 plate appearances, he hit simply .222/.275/.320 with 4 house runs and 5 stolen bases. Bichette’s 19% strikeout price is definitely decrease than his profession 20.6% mark, however whereas he was nonetheless making frequent contact, the standard of his batted balls took a nosedive. Bichette has career-low marks in exit velocity, barrel price and hard-hit price this season. His line-drive price is the third-lowest of his profession. His ground-ball price is the third-highest. He hit solely six infield flies in 601 plate appearances in 2023 however popped up 5 instances on this yr’s 331 plate appearances. Bichette’s contact price on pitches within the strike zone was a career-best 91.7% — however his contact price on balls off the plate was a career-worst 57.5%.
Previous to his ’24 struggles, Bichette was one of the vital persistently spectacular hitters within the American League. From 2019-23, he slashed a mixed .299/.340/.487, averaging 27 homers, 40 doubles, two triples and 16 steals per 162 video games performed. Bichette could not have had top-of-the-scale energy, velocity or contact expertise, however each part of his offensive device equipment performed out at an above-average degree, and whereas he’s by no means been a plus shortstop he’s additionally solely had one yr with really poor defensive grades (2022).
This yr’s struggles will complicate any extension talks with Bichette, after all. With a typical season, he’d have been on monitor to be a free agent heading into his age-28 season — a center infielder with plus offense at a younger-than-typical age at no cost company. Discuss of a $250MM+ and even $300MM contract may have been in play. Such lofty heights in all probability aren’t attainable on the heels of a career-worst yr on the plate that’s now seen a number of calf accidents hold him on the bench for 2 to 3 months. Discovering a center floor may very well be troublesome, although an extension that permits Bichette to extend his incomes energy — whether or not by way of opt-out alternatives or maybe by way of a collection of vesting choices, a la Carlos Correa in Minnesota — may supply create options to assist bridge the hole.
For now, the aim will merely be to get again on the sector in 2024. Bichette tells Davidi that getting again on the sector, figuring out the harm is behind him and feeling like himself once more will all be a psychological increase heading into the offseason. Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling tweets that Bichette is slated to start a rehab project with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate tomorrow, which is able to doubtless final 4 to 5 video games and embrace time at each shortstop and designated hitter. That would no less than give Bichette two weeks to really feel assured that his calf is again to full energy, however the larger questions — for each him and the group — are looming because the winter approaches.
