When making ready for a draft or public sale, it’s fairly typical to find out what positions you are feeling greatest concerning the deep choices and due to this fact don’t should spend massive assets upfront. Love a bunch of shortstops you will get after choose 200/for lower than $5? You then don’t want to interrupt the financial institution for Francisco Lindor.
In keeper auctions, that depth can shift unexpectedly (as we mentioned earlier this week), so you have to now solely know what positions are deep however what positions are deep amongst gamers truly accessible. However there may be one other issue that impacts place depth: what different groups want.
I’ve a course of that I (ideally – time doesn’t at all times enable) undergo earlier than every public sale the place I determine three issues about every staff within the league, together with mine:
How a lot cash they should spend
What number of spots they should fill
What wants they’ve at every place
Quantity 3 isn’t at all times simple to do, particularly in Ottoneu leagues the place bench depth means it may be exhausting to inform what a staff “wants.” Does a staff with Mookie Betts plan to make use of him at OF or a MI spot? Does a staff with Josh Naylor really feel set at 1B or are they in want of one other bat there? Does that supervisor contemplate Jonathan Aranda a beginning 2B/MI or do they view him as an upside play and never depend him in the direction of their Opening Day lineup depth? These are comparatively simple inquiries to reply on your personal staff, however in no way for an additional staff.
What I attempt to do is simply assume I handle that roster after which make fast, intestine selections. That is purely about shifting shortly (I don’t need to spend hours on this). I’m additionally targeted on what they want greater than what they may need. It is because my objective (which we are going to get to later) is to have a way of what positions I can “wait” on at public sale vs. the place I’m going to wish to throw my cash round. If 5 different groups want a 2B, that can dictate competitors for the highest 2B and provides me a way of when the 2B market may loosen up. If one other 3 groups may need some further 2B depth, they’re much less prone to spend massive for that spot, whether or not meaning going after a Jose Altuve or bidding up Andres Gimenez.
I need to run by means of an instance, however I’m going to do that for a CBS H2H keeper league I play in. It’s a very good instance for Ottoneu leagues as a result of it really works equally (shallower rosters with simply 25 gamers, however the with a $260 cap, worth will increase of $2 or 15% (whichever is bigger), and max 14 keepers per staff, you find yourself with per-player economics just like Ottoneu. The best paid participant on this league final 12 months was $67 Juan Soto, with two different gamers over $40 and 7 extra over $30. Related form of a worth curve, simply with fewer gamers.
It’s additionally a very good instance as a result of it’s a lot easier to suppose by means of. The 25 man rosters are 12 bats (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx4, U); eight arms (SPx5, RPx5), and 5 bench spots. I are inclined to assume groups will carry seven SP, three RP, and use the opposite bench spots to verify they’ve depth at MI, CI and OF (carrying only one catcher per roster).
Listed below are my keepers:
I even have essentially the most money to spend, by far. However let’s faux I used to be doing this train and this was not my staff however one other staff. I might have a look at this roster and decide this staff wants:
A catcher. This appears fairly apparent.
A minimum of one, and possibly two 1B. They want a starter for positive and may need a 1B at CI or as a backup, relying what they do at util. I’ll put them down for 1.5.
Perhaps one other 3B. They’ll want a backup and possibly put a 3B at CI. I’ll put them down for 0.5.
A minimum of one 2B, however actually two. Like first, they want a starter, however in addition they want a MI and doubtless a backup 2B/backup MI, so I’m going to place them down for two.
One SS. That may be a backup, it may be a beginning MI, it may be Tovar insurance coverage. However they want yet another and not likely greater than that.
Three OF. Wallner and Carpenter are already most likely platoon guys, so if this staff needs to fill the lineup every day, they want three extra OF.
One U. This might be any place, however it’s a want.
Three extra SP. They might take 4 extra, since Kirby is headed to the IL, however I’ll assume three for the draft and the IL transfer later.
Two extra RP to fill the lineup.
One participant TBD. In the event that they do the whole lot I stated above, they’ve added 15 gamers however have room for 16. They’d have starters at each spot, a backup for MI and OF, and sufficient pitching. This TBD may be a CI, in the event that they don’t get one some other place. It’d simply be a flier they like. It may be an additional SP or one thing I can’t predict. Nevertheless it’s doubtless an end-of-bench sort.
Now, that’s numerous textual content, however it took me a few minute to give you these numbers. The thought course of I typed out strikes a lot faster if you don’t have to clarify it to another person.
Having spent 10-Quarter-hour to try this for each staff, I’m left with a desk that appears one thing like this:
You may see the league has 152 keepers, which implies 148 open roster spots, and I’ve recognized how I believe the league will make the most of these spots. With that, I can then go to my draft board and attempt to prioritize the place I ought to spend. For instance, you possibly can see I want a C, 1B, 2B, and OF, amongst different issues. I might select to spend on Adley Rutschman, or Matt Olson, or Ketel Marte or Juan Soto, however I most likely can’t spend on all of them. The place do I spend massive and the place do I am going low cost?
Effectively, my chart tells me eight groups want catchers. Listed below are the highest accessible catchers, in no explicit order: Rutschman, Cal Raleigh, Will Smith, Logan O’Hoppe, Shea Langeliers, J.T. Realmuto, Tyler Stephenson, Gabriel Moreno, Austin Wells, Ryan Jeffers, Tyler Soderstrom, Sean Murphy, Francisco Alvarez, Alejandro Kirk.
That’s 14 names, all guys I like to some extent. Even when I obtained “caught” with Alvarez and needed to choose up Keibert Ruiz or somebody as a free agent quick time period, I wouldn’t be upset. Would Rutschman, Raleigh or Smith be higher than Soderstrom, Wells or Moreno? After all! However I don’t should spend right here to return away with a starter I’m okay with.
Listed below are the highest names at 1B: Freddie Freeman, Matt Olson, Christian Walker, Josh Naylor, Tristan Casas, Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins, Nathaniel Lowe, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Ryan Mountcastle.
That’s 10 names. I counted groups needing 13.5 1B. Even when I lower out the 0.5 1B from the checklist, I find yourself with 9 groups that positively want a 1B. And whereas I don’t hate Mountcastle or Encarnacion-Strand, if I’ve one in every of them as my beginning 1B (vs. a beginning CI or Util or backup possibility), I gained’t be notably blissful. So after I construct my public sale plan, I’ll prioritize spending on Olson or Freeman (or be able to go overboard to verify I get Walker, Naylor or Casas) and never threat being caught within the subsequent tier.
For this league, I’m discovering that 1B and OF are my going to be my challenges, whereas 2B, C, and SP, I really feel extra assured I can discover worth low cost. RP is a little bit of a conundrum. It is a saves league and there aren’t many closers accessible so I’ll both should prioritize massive cash for a giant identify nearer or simply punt saves and go get a pair dust low cost RP who will present me nice charges, however no saves.
However all of that’s influenced not simply by total positional depth (C and 2B aren’t deep positions) and even simply public sale depth (2B isn’t notably deep on this public sale), however by having a way of what the remainder of the league will do and utilizing that to regulate my plan accordingly.
