Astros third baseman Alex Bregman is now only a few weeks away from turning into a free agent for the primary time, nevertheless it appears there’s an opportunity he may not make it to the open market. Common supervisor Dana Brown spoke with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and was requested concerning the scenario, indicating that they nonetheless hope to strategy Bregman sooner or later within the close to future.
“We had been in Anaheim the opposite day and I bumped into [agent Scott Boras] and we began speaking somewhat bit,” Brown stated. “And we each stated, ‘Look, as soon as we get in direction of the tip of the season and issues are over, we’ll positively interact and discuss it.’ We had a small dialog about it. Proper now, we’re not in any discussions about contract presents. We each agreed we’ll meet again up.”
Brown was employed because the GM in January of 2023 and, from the start, has been constant in saying that the membership deliberate to speak to Bregman and his reps a few new contract sooner or later. Bregman and the Astros agreed to a five-year, $100MM extension in 2019. When Brown was employed and commenced speaking concerning the want to get a brand new deal performed, there have been nonetheless two years left on that pact nevertheless it’s now virtually full.
Getting a deal performed at this level shall be difficult however not unimaginable. Whereas public repute suggests Boras purchasers don’t signal extensions, there are a number of examples that contradict that narrative, with the latest coming lower than two weeks in the past. Matt Chapman, one other Boras shopper, agreed to a six-year, $151MM pact with the Giants to forestall him from triggering his opt-out and returning to free company.
Bregman could have an argument to prime the Chapman deal. The 2 gamers have offered comparable worth on the sector in recent times, with Bregman typically hitting extra however Chapman offering higher defensive worth. However Bregman is a yr youthful, which ought to give him the sting. Each gamers had arguably their greatest seasons in 2018 and 2019. They’ve every fallen off a bit since then however have nonetheless been solidly above common gamers.
Bregman was undoubtedly higher at that 2018-19 apex. He hit .291/.409/.561 over these two seasons for a 162 wRC+, whereas Chapman was at .263/.348/.507 and a 132 wRC+. Chapman offered extra with the glove however nonetheless got here up quick total, producing 11.9 wins above substitute in comparison with Bregman’s 16.2, per FanGraphs.
Since then, it’s been virtually a useless warmth. From 2020 to the current, Bregman has hit .260/.350/.442 for a 124 wRC+ whereas Chapman has a .231/.321/.434 line and 112 wRC+. Chapman makes up a few of the distinction with higher baserunning however principally protection: 44 Defensive Runs Saved and 33 Outs Above Common for Chapman in comparison with 10 DRS and 13 OAA for Bregman. General, Bregman has a 17 fWAR tally in that point whereas Chapman is narrowly behind at 16.7.
Provided that comparable manufacturing, Bregman and Boras ought to be capable of use Chapman’s deal as a ground, with Bregman’s youthful age justification in asking for a good higher assure. That type of contract can be fairly unprecedented for the Astros, who’ve typically shied away from mega offers, as proven in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. They did give Jose Altuve an extension of 5 years and $151MM again in 2018, the most important deal in franchise historical past, however that deal started with Altuve’s age-29 season.
They had been additionally close to the beginning of their aggressive window and had numerous payroll house on the time, which is now not the case. The Astros are set to pay the aggressive steadiness tax for the primary time this yr. They went over the CBT line in 2020 however the tax was paused throughout the pandemic they usually have stayed underneath since.
Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the membership’s CBT quantity is at $254MM for the yr, effectively past the $237MM base threshold. Cot’s lists their 2025 quantity at $151MM however that doesn’t seem to incorporate Ryan Pressly’s $14MM choice, which he vested final month and is assured so long as he’s wholesome at season’s finish. Including that will get us to $165MM, then arbitration raises for Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker ought to add roughly $35MM or so, taking the quantity to about $200MM. Arb offers for guys like Bryan Abreu, José Urquidy, Luis Garcia, Mauricio Dubón and others will add to that whole as effectively.
Re-signing Bregman appears to be a precedence for the membership however they’ll naturally produce other offseason enterprise to take care of. Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi are set to grow to be free brokers, placing two holes in a rotation that has already been closely bit by the harm bug. Maybe Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. shall be wholesome and within the combine by subsequent yr, however including to the beginning group may very well be on the winter to-do record.
Addressing the pitching employees and including a notable deal for Bregman would possible go away the membership as a tax payor for a second straight yr. Paying the tax in consecutive seasons comes with escalating penalties. A second-time payor sees its base tax fee go from 20% to 30%, with greater penalties for going past the extra tiers.
Whether or not the perimeters can get a deal performed and maintain Bregman in Houston stays to be seen. The membership clearly needs it to occur based mostly on how usually Brown has talked about it, nevertheless it’s additionally by no means appeared like there’s been a lot momentum in direction of significant discussions. Even when Bregman finally makes it to the open market, the Astros might re-sign him, however they might naturally have competitors from the opposite golf equipment across the league. MLBTR ranked Bregman third on our most up-to-date Free Agent Energy Rankings, behind solely Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes. Earlier in the present day, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic talked about the Tigers as a speculative match for Bregman this winter.
