Are the Rays Changing the Cooking Time for Prospects?

Editor’s Observe: Please be a part of me in welcoming Jason Collette again to DRaysBay. He has written throughout the blogosphere at Baseball Prospectus, Rotowire, and extra. We’re fortunate to have him! – DR

It’s truism accepted by many who the Rays gradual cook dinner their prospects like brisket on a smoker.

Anybody who has been on this website for awhile possible remembers the #FreeDesmondJennings motion in 2009 and 2010 as all of us watched the membership wrestle offensively, significantly in opposition to lefties, whereas Jennings amassed almost 1000 plate appearances for Durham earlier than lastly cracking the common lineup in 2011. On the finish of the day, Jennings by no means did attain expectations, in no small half as a result of leg accidents destroyed his pace. He was waived by the membership in 2016, having spent his greatest taking part in days in Durham.

To the baseball commentariat, the Desmond Jennings strategy to prospect growth stays the Rays modus operandi.

For instance, here’s a video of Derek Van Riper, Eno Sarris, and Keith Regulation discussing Carson Williams

These feedback have been additionally echoed by Chris Towers from CBS Sports activities on BlueSky:

Does this notion accord with the present actuality of the membership?

There may be little doubt that the membership has had a historical past of slowly selling its high prospects over time; some suspect that the Rays have sought to govern service time to get probably the most prime years potential out of the gamers earlier than the costly arbitration years kick in.

If I had related timelines for all different golf equipment, that might be a better matter to dive into, however that knowledge shouldn’t be simply accessible. I do have knowledge for all Tampa Bay prospects who’ve appeared on MLB.com’s high 15 checklist because the 2011 season.

Let’s start with the hitters, who averaged 553 plate appearances in Triple-A earlier than advancing.

Misplaced within the give attention to Jennings is the truth that a number of others noticed 900+ plate appearances in Durham earlier than discovering their solution to the large league membership in some capability. Each Brandon Guyer and Mikie Mahtook by no means achieved greater than short-side platoon roles within the outfield regardless of their prospect pedigree and the Tim Beckham story has been well-covered over time.

Willy Adames and Josh Lowe each play into the arguments made by the pundits; every noticed over 800 plate appearances with Durham earlier than making it to the Rays and incomes full-time roles.

Adames first joined the large league membership in 2018 after 40 video games in Durham for a three-game stint in late Could, after which once more in mid-June earlier than second demotion across the All-Star break solely to be recalled for good in late July simply earlier than Adeiny Hechevarria was traded to Pittsburgh for Matt Seelinger.

Photograph by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire through Getty Pictures

Lowe misplaced 2020 to the pandemic, however spent almost the whole thing of 2021 in Durham hitting .291/.381/.535 with a 20-20 season and earned a two- recreation promotion in early September. A powerful spring earned him a job with the large league membership out of camp the following season, however a .188/.257/.344 line with 38% strikeout price resulted in a ticket again to Durham on Could 1st. He made it again to Tampa Bay in late June and hit .239/.299/.342 with an improved 31% strikeout price earlier than a second demotion to Durham the place he remained for the remainder of the 2022 season. Lowe has remained with the Rays since, exterior of some rehab appearances with Durham this previous season.

Jake Bauers and Wil Myers have been additionally Durham darlings. Bauers was an on-base machine however the membership determined to stay with Logan Morrison in 2016 and was rewarded with a 30-homer season from Morrison in 2017. Bauers lastly did make the membership in 2018 however an unimpressive debut season led them to deal Bauers to Cleveland to amass Yandy Diaz. (This commerce has been a transparent win for the Rays; Bauers has not lived as much as his prospect hype, whereas Diaz has developed into the one of many 5 greatest gamers in franchise historical past by oWAR.)

Myers had 759 plate appearances in Triple-A, however almost half of these got here with the Omaha Stormchasers. With the Rays he notoriously received Rookie of the 12 months regardless of solely taking part in in 88 video games, after which confirmed up with the worst case of bedhead within the historical past of tv to simply accept his award. He was dealt away to San Diego the place he finally had a robust run of success in 2016 and 2017 earlier than fading away. I’d quite not revisit the commerce which despatched him to San Diego as a result of the particulars are nonetheless too painful to debate.

The combination of center infield prospects that incorporates Daniel Robertson, Vidal Brujan, Christian Arroyo, and Osleivis Basabe by no means did pan out on the massive league membership. Robertson simply ended up being the most effective of the bunch however was designated for project within the pandemic season and bounced across the subsequent three seasons earlier than calling it quits after the 2023 season.

Nathaniel Lowe spent additional time in Triple-A because it was reported the Rays have been involved about his means to deal with velocity on the higher ranges of the strike zone. That challenge certainly performed out as soon as Lowe had full-season publicity with the Rangers in 2021, and has persevered exterior what seems to be an outlier season in 2022 whilst he’s settled in as a strong participant on the massive league stage. The Rays have loved the Fifth-best fWAR from first base since dealing Lowe away to Texas even when the property acquired in return of Lowe by no means amounted to something within the group. Richie Shaffer preceded Lowe within the first base pipeline, however the publicity to the key league roster in 2015 accentuated issues the membership had of his points with contact all through the minor leagues and the membership flipped Shaffer together with Taylor Motter in a deal which introduced the worth of Andrew Kittredge to the bullpen.

Missed in that “gradual cooking” status is that Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco every spent lower than half a season at Durham earlier than sticking on the main league stage. It might additionally come as a shock to many to study that Randy Arozarena does have 594 plate appearances in Triple-A, however the entirety of these have been achieved with the Memphis Redbirds earlier than St. Louis dealt him to Tampa Bay together with Jose Martinez, for Matthew Liberatore, Edgardo Rodriguez, and a aggressive stability decide.

Photograph by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire through Getty Pictures

The entrance workplace acknowledges after they have one thing particular, whether or not it’s Arozarena’s bat or Kevin Kiermaier’s outfield prowess. Kiermaier, you might recall, was known as up in 2013 for the wild card tie-breaker recreation particularly for his protection. One may argue that the one cause Kiermier didn’t break camp with the membership in 2014 was as a result of the Rays had what appeared to be a full outfield: defending rookie of the 12 months Wil Myers in proper area and Desmond Jennings in heart with Matt Joyce and Brandon Guyer platooning in left.

On the finish of the day, the case of Willy Adames will be the most damning as a result of the entrance workplace determined to offer Hechevarria and Beckham 147 video games at shortstop that season quite than speed up the service time clock of the important thing centerpiece of the David Worth commerce. The flip aspect to that argument is that Adames performed the whole thing of the 2017 minor league season in Durham as a 21 12 months previous. The final 5 gamers to play a minimum of 120 video games at shortstop of their age 21 season within the majors are Xander Bogaerts (2014), Addison Russell (2015), Carlos Correa (2016), Gleyber Torres (2018), and most just lately, Ezequiel Tovar (2023.) There have been however eight gamers beneath the age of twenty-two who’ve performed a full season at shortstop on this century if we add the trio of Adrian Beltre (2000), Elvis Andrus (2009 & 2010) and Starlin Castro (2010-2011) to the combo.

An identical story performs out with the pitchers. Allow us to first give attention to the beginning pitching prospects.

Jake Odorizzi leads the checklist with probably the most innings labored in Triple-A, however that point was almost evenly cut up between Omaha within the Kansas Metropolis system and Durham as soon as he was acquired within the deal which despatched James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals. Ian Malinowski did a dive into Odorizzi’s stuff the day of Odorizzi’s debut with the membership and famous that every one his secondary pitches weren’t as spectacular as what was taking place along with his fastball concluding, “Total, this isn’t the repertoire of a front-line starter.” It’s virtually as if the additional time in Durham was extra about pitch growth than service time manipulation.

Jeremy Hellickson was banging on the door in 2010 for a membership which received 96 video games and already had David Worth, Matt Garza, James Shields, Jeff Niemann, and Wade Davis within the rotation. That quintet every made 29 or extra begins whereas working 168 or extra innings.

Merely put, there was no room for Hellickson on the inn as a result of the membership loved an unprecedented quantity of beginning pitching well being that season and there was no manner the membership was going to tug a struggling James Shields from the rotation after what he had achieved for the membership in earlier season. He started his profession with an uncanny means to strand runners till the Luck Dragons had sufficient of his defiance and made him endure in 2013.

Max Faulkner/Fort Value Star-Telegram/Tribune Information Service through Getty Pictures

Nate Karns was the return from the Nationals when the Rays despatched Jose Lobaton and Felipe Vazquez to Washington. The Rays as soon as once more had 4 starters pitching a minimum of 165 innings that season, however the fifth spot was meshed between Erik Bedard and Jeremy Hellickson because the duo went 5-11 with a 4.65 ERA over their 28 begins. The Rays opted to make use of different gamers similar to Cesar Ramos, Drew Smyly, and even Alex Colome that season to cowl begins from the rotation however gave Karns his shot within the early summer season with three begins earlier than sending him again to Durham for the remainder of the season. Karns didn’t make it 5 innings in any a kind of outings whereas permitting 17 hits together with 5 house runs within the 12 innings of labor. Karns did have a strong 2015 season earlier than being despatched to Seattle in a deal which netted Danny Farquhar, Brad Miller, and Logan Morrison.

Jake Faria spent components of 2016 and 2017 with Durham earlier than making it to the majors with some instant success in 2017. That success was derailed by a extreme indirect pressure in mid-Could of 2018 which stored him out till August. He rejoined the rotation once more in 2018, however was demoted to the pen and finally dealt to Milwaukee in 2019 for Jesus Aguilar.

Chris Archer made his debut with the Rays in 2012 with two begins on the finish of June earlier than returning to the membership as a part of September roster growth. That 2012 noticed 4 starters make 31 or extra begins and work 175+ innings whereas Alex Cobb and Jeff Niemann made 31 begins mixed to cowl the 5 spot. Archer, like Hellickson, didn’t actually have a spot to hitch the membership, however did so the next season as soon as alternatives offered themselves to him as a result of accidents and underperformance on the roster.

Blake Snell dominated three ranges of the system in 2015 with a 15-4 file and a 1.41 ERA ending the season going 6-2 with a 1.83 ERA for the Bulls. The 2016 Rays have been clearly not going to be a contending membership, and it was apparent that Snell had the makings of a front-line starter so Snell’s project to Durham to start the season was seen for what it was – service time manipulation. Snell was known as as much as make a late April begin at Yankee Stadium and was wonderful, however he was not seen once more till the center of June as soon as the service time had been sufficiently manipulated. Two years later, he received the primary of his two profession Cy Younger awards however ended his Rays profession in a dramatic vogue, strolling angrily off the mound throughout the sixth inning of Sport 6 of the World Sequence. Worse but, he was dealt away for Blake Hunt, Cole Wilcox, Francisco Mejia, and Luis Patiño. Irrespective of how one makes an attempt to prune that commerce tree, it is not going to look good.

Brent Honeywell was a tragic story as he was all however assured of pitching for the membership in 2018 after his breakout 2017 season within the minors which noticed him strike out 172 batters 136.2 innings throughout two ranges. Nonetheless, his arm had totally different plans for him as he underwent a number of surgical procedures earlier than debuting within the 2021 season. His profession by no means panned out as anticipated, however he can a minimum of cherish the World Sequence ring he received with the Dodgers. Brendan McKay has an analogous story, however lacks the ring to point out for his struggles. Jose DeLeon tore his UCL in spring coaching of 2018 after a cup of espresso with Tampa Bay in 2017 and returned for 3 outings earlier than being dealt away in 2019. Baz falls into this group to a degree as a result of the misplaced 2020 season, a managed workload in 2021, and eventual Tommy John surgical procedure in early 2022 have led him to spend extra time in Durham than with the Rays since being acquired within the Chris Archer deal.

Matt Moore may have been the most effective success story of the pitching growth as a result of Moore wanted simply 52.2 innings in Durham earlier than being known as as much as be a part of the membership within the warmth of a pennant race in 2011 together with his unforgettable outing at Yankee Stadium on September twenty second when he struck out 11 Yankees over 5 shutout innings and 7 extra shutout innings within the ALDS in opposition to the Texas Rangers. Moore made the large league membership in 2012, due equally to his accomplishment and the actual fact he signed a five-year, $14,000,000 contract that offseason negating the necessity to manipulate any service time. He went on to pitch nicely that season in addition to 2013 earlier than leaving the mound in early April of 2014 in Kansas Metropolis with a torn UCL and was by no means the identical pitcher with Rays, or any membership, as a starter. He did finally discover a area of interest as an efficient reliever within the majors in 2022 and 2023 earlier than a tough patch with the Angels this previous season.

Lastly, we now have the pitchers who transformed to aid whereas within the system. Few pitchers are drafted and developed as relievers, so high prospects are given their time to let the story play out. Mason Montgomery is the latest success story; his ends in the minors have been a combined bag of success and struggles, but he regarded incredible as a reliever in his 9 video games with the Rays final season and thus far in camp this month. Alex Colome finally pitched his manner out of a starter function as soon as it was clear his greatest path ahead was within the bullpen. Because the saves statistic was created, 30 pitchers can declare a minimum of 150 profession saves in addition to 15 or extra video games began, Colome is a kind of 30 guys. Jake McGee and Ryne Stanek have been all the time destined for aid and didn’t require a lot time to get to the large league pen.

Lastly, you could possibly win some bar trivia in the event you requested individuals to right guess how lengthy the Rays allowed Shane McClanahan to slow-cook in Durham earlier than lastly calling him up as a result of the following pitch McClanahan throws for the Durham Bulls will likely be his first one.

Merely put, when the Rays have acknowledged particular expertise lately, they’ve flash fried these prospects out of the minor league frying pan and onto the key league platter. The times of gradual roasting prospects look like over.

Carson Williams is slated to play this season in Triple-A and the strikeout points he has needed to date are a superb cause for him to spend time in Durham. Chandler Simpson is already making waves in camp along with his blazing pace, and on condition that pace is a younger man’s recreation, him not breaking camp with the membership may completely be extra in regards to the truth he has fewer than 80 video games performed above A-ball than any sort of service time manipulation. Yoniel Curet too hasn’t seen the filth in Durham, however there may be additionally no must rush his gifted arm to the large leagues with the present depth (knock on any piece of wooden inside attain) on the roster.

For now, the accusations the Rays habitually gradual play their prospects is unfounded as a result of their higher merchandise in latest seasons have spent little to no time in Durham.