I’ve a spiel I recycle every time I make daring predictions. It goes one thing like this: daring predictions ought to be daring however actionable. They need to be based primarily in logic with a little bit little bit of wish-casting. A daring prediction made blindly is value nothing. It’s all in regards to the course of.
Typically my success with daring predictions is indicative of my success through the season. I’m largely in keeper/dynasty leagues, and my indifference to fantasy baseball the earlier two years proved expensive. Nonetheless, I had my finest season since 2021 and turned a constructive return on funding. It’s exhausting to ask for far more than a constructive ROI, apart from a good greater one.
So, let’s see how I did right here. I exploit Razzball Participant Rater (12-team) values as my main supply of greenback values as a result of it’s broadly identified, however I really want my Pitch Leaderboard values (additionally 12-team; subscriber solely). To me the scaling is extra life like and reflective of precise roster development. To be clear, although, the distinction is primarily the size. Ryan O’Hearn, for instance, regardless of being value $7 in keeping with my mannequin, is the 131st-best hitter; for Razzball, at $2, he’s 137th-best.
1) Jake Rogers is a top-12 catcher.
This was brutally, brutally unhealthy. This was, actually, not good course of. So Rogers hit 21 house runs in 107 video games in 2023? Who cares. Do the underlying numbers substantiate that energy?
To an extent, they do. However 21 house runs on 26 barrels is excessive—and 26 barrels on 97 exhausting hits is, itself, additionally excessive. Rogers’ house run whole this yr was applicable—possibly he was shorted a pair—however however I ought to have anticipated regression for a talent I blindly thought he might repeat.
Then again, I might have made this prediction about Shea Langeliers, who I famous on the backside of the prediction that I additionally thought-about for my catcher-themed choose. He was a giant a part of my reasonably profitable Tout Wars squad. Langeliers confirmed comparable abilities—arguably similar abilities, for higher or worse—however fewer impediments to enjoying time.
Furthermore, I really didn’t roster Rogers in very many locations. I feel I solely drafted him as soon as in seven groups. He was not a high-priority goal for me. That’s simply not good daring prediction fodder. I must have extra conviction! Disgrace on me.
Razzball: -$10.0 total, -$7.1 per gamePitch Leaderboard: -$1.0 total, -$1.9 per 650 PAVerdict: LReport: 0 for 1
2) Ryan O’Hearn is a top-20 first baseman.
, this appeared actually good to begin. He made large plate self-discipline positive factors (one thing I admit I couldn’t foresee) en path to the best wRC+ of his profession (albeit by only one proportion level). Nonetheless, he all however sacrificed his energy to realize these contact positive factors, his hard-hit fee plummeting dramatically.
The bigger situation, although, is that O’Hearn simply wasn’t a full-time participant. He was a strong-side platoon, which was nice in each day codecs. On a per-game foundation, he was a $5 participant—Twenty first-best amongst first basemen. However total he was only a $2 participant (1B 30 total) as a result of he didn’t play day by day. That’s not viable exterior of deep (15-team) or AL-only leagues, or, once more, each day codecs like Ottoneu the place you can begin him in opposition to righties completely.
I feel there was higher course of right here, however he would have been extra helpful as his hard-swinging 2023 self. Furthermore, it’s simply exhausting to scratch top-20 worth in part-time responsibility (solely three gamers larger than him had fewer plate appearances).
Razzball: $1.9 total, $4.9 per gamePitch Leaderboard: $7.2 total, $9.5 per 650 PAVerdict: LReport: 0 for two
3) Luis Rengifo is a top-10 second baseman (or top-12 shortstop).
This one is devastating as a result of Rengifo completely would have nailed this prediction if a hit-by-pitch hadn’t damaged his hand. He was the 4th-best second baseman and Eighth-best shortstop (min. 300 PA) per sport performed. All of it unfolded precisely as I anticipated: Rengifo, a contact-oriented speedster who hadn’t actually run a lot as a Main Leaguer, would out of the blue thrive underneath Ron Washington’s newfound want to emphasise baserunning. He then put up what’s successfully a .300/.350/.400 slash line with a 50-SB tempo. And he really hits for some energy! He’s arguably one of many solely good issues to come back out of Anaheim in recent times.
I’ll be curious to see how of us worth him subsequent yr. They might view his sporadic enjoying time as “injury-prone.” He’s a lot nearer to a .260 hitter than a .300 hitter, however a 15-30-.260 hitter completely will get the job carried out.
Razzball: -$2.7 total, $22.5 per gamePitch Leaderboard: $11.0 total, $23.3 per 650 PAVerdict: L (sadly)Report: 0 for 3
4) Amed Rosario is a top-15 shortstop (or top-12 second baseman).
Rosario apparently went to Driveline within the offseason to work on his bat velocity. I hoped this coaching and his nebulous super-utility position with the Rays would bear fruit. It did, to some extent: his 96 wRC+ was playable, with a .280 common and 13 stolen bases in 103 video games. The difficulty, partly, was enjoying time (once more), as he performed very sometimes after the primary couple of months of the season. Furthermore, regardless of the bat velocity coaching, he didn’t really hit for extra energy—actually, he hit for much less.
This stuff occur. Driveline works with plenty of hitters. Not all of them pop. It’s more durable to foretell Driveline-affiliated pitcher breakouts; the hitter breakouts, nevertheless, amongst those that work on bat velocity with Driveline appear to be extra dependable. Rosario was a false constructive. And José Caballero, who I assumed would hit himself out of a job, really retained a job for a lot of the yr because of his protection (+9.2) and baserunning (1.5 wSB) however not his bat (83 wRC+).
He was useful to start with of the season, although. His April was value his draft worth if you happen to didn’t cling too tightly.
Razzball: -$10.7 total, -$1.7 per gamePitch Leaderboard: $2.2 total, $4.2 per 650 PAVerdict: LReport: 0 for 4
5) Eugenio Suárez is a top-12 third baseman.
This prediction appeared worse than the Rogers prediction for half the season. Then I reduce Suárez in an Ottoneu league on June 30. The remainder, as they are saying, is historical past.
April by way of June: 6 HR, 2 SB, .196/.279/.312 (66 wRC+)July by way of September: 24 HR, 0 SB, .312/.357/.617 (162 wRC+)
Simply an astounding turnaround, so massively massive that he ended up being Razzball’s Seventh-best third baseman. Unreal.
Not a lot else to say. He was getting drafted exterior the top-300 and put up a $20+ season. Whammy.
Razzball: $21.6 total, $12.5 per gamePitch Leaderboard: $16.5 total, $16.7 per 650 PAVerdict: WReport: 1 for five
6) Nelson Velázquez is a top-35 outfielder.
This was fairly unhealthy. In contrast to Rogers, I did draft a variety of Velázquez, so I’ll personal this one. I don’t assume the method was horrible, although. I even acknowledge that he was extra of a 20-to-25-homer man with some steals and a nasty batting common. That analysis was fairly correct: he was mainly on tempo for a 20-5-.200 season.
Besides that’s, actually, fairly unhealthy (though Razzball says he was roughly break-even on a per-game foundation). I assumed Velázquez’s batting common on balls in play (BABIP) would rebound, nevertheless it didn’t. Furthermore, the exhausting hits dried up; it wasn’t regression as a lot because it was crashing again to the earth and exploding spectacularly. It was catastrophically unhealthy to the purpose the place he was unplayable and the Royals finally optioned him.
I nonetheless don’t assume this was horrible, nevertheless it was actually high-variance. We noticed one extraordinarily unlikely consequence in 2023; I feel we noticed a equally unlikely consequence in 2024. I’d anticipate Velázquez is a job participant subsequent yr with higher outcomes. However ever since he left the Cubs’ farm in 2023 he has not been anyplace close to as productive as he was.
Razzball: -$17.2 total, -$0.9 per gamePitch Leaderboard: $1.4 total, $3.8 per 650 PAVerdict: LReport: 1 for six
7) Brenton Doyle is a top-45 outfielder.
Oh, hell yeah, child. Once more, what’s there actually to say? This prediction was predicated on the concept that Doyle was, actually, not a true-talent 45 wRC+ hitter. Because the Thirteenth-best outfielder and Forty fourth-best participant total, he paid good-looking dividends.
To be clear, he’s not a spectacular real-life hitter: wtih his propensity to strike out, he was merely league-average and would possibly nonetheless be worse subsequent yr. He’s, although, mainly what fantasy-heads all the time wished Garrett Hampson to be: a reasonably power-hitting speedster in Colorado.
I’ll accumulate my winnings now.
Razzball: $20.6 total, $17.8 per gamePitch Leaderboard: $18.6 total, $20.0 per 650 PAVerdict: WReport: 2 for 7
8) Trevor Rogers is a top-40 beginning pitcher.
Bruuuuutal. However, you realize what: I don’t hate this one. Rogers was presumably one of many worst pitchers in baseball final yr who noticed as many innings as he did. From a course of standpoint I merely anticipated his velo would rebound after having an offseason to recoup from his first MLB innings again from damage. As a substitute, his velo took one other step again, and all the things unhealthy that adopted might be blamed on it.
Wanting ahead, the Orioles acquired Rogers. Given his manufacturing up to now, and his equally unhealthy manufacturing thereafter, of us had been rightly upset. This, to me, was by no means a short-term play, though the O’s tried to parlay it into one. I feel the O’s see a man who, with higher well being and mechanics, can presumably recapture the velo that made him a mid-rotation arm just a few years in the past. I feel the crew had a imaginative and prescient for him, and he acquired optioned particularly for them to work on it with him. He’ll have the offseason, too. So I’m cautiously optimistic once more {that a} Rogers rebound would possibly come.
As for this yr: an unmitigated catastrophe.
Razzball: -$25.2 total, -$40.2 per gamePitch Leaderboard: -$9.9 total, -$16.1 per 200 IPVerdict: LReport: 2 for 8
9) Nick Martinez is a top-60 beginning pitcher.
So, the Doyle choose was dope, and the Suárez choose hit, and the Rengifo prediction was lit, too, regardless of circumstances. However I feel this was my favourite prediction. He ended up forty sixth amongst all pitchers, thirty seventh amongst starters.
Martinez has had nice peripherals, albeit in a mostly-relief position. He mainly went from swingman to rotation staple fueled largely by an elite change-up. It boasted a swinging strike fee (SwStr%) north of 20% and was Third-best in suppressing opposing hitters’ exit velocities (EVs), to the tune of roughly 9(!) mph decrease than common. Usually I agree with xFIP and SIERA with the implication that Martinez over-performed. I do assume he’s extra of a high-3.00s ERA man. However xFIP and SIERA broadly fail to account for EV suppression as a talent that some pitchers do, certainly, personal.
I’m extraordinarily curious how of us view Martinez subsequent yr. He’ll be 34 and the Ok’s weren’t gaudy. However his 3.31 ERA his Seventeenth-best of 77 pitchers who’ve thrown at the least 350 innings the final three years.
Razzball: $9.8 total, -$3.1 per gamePitch Leaderboard: $15.1 total, $15.9 per ~148 IP (mix of SP and RP innings)Verdict: WReport: 3 for 9
10) Three of those non-closer reduction pitchers shall be top-15 closers.
This was a sprawling prediction. Let’s evaluate the element components.
Yennier Cano, as a result of Craig Kimbrel is on his final leg
Right, however unhealthy timing. Kimbrel is cooked, dude acquired DFA’d in the course of a playoff push. However, sadly, Kimbrel persevered for a lot of the season, leaving crumbs for Cano—and by the point Kimbrel acquired the boot, (low-quality) reinforcements within the type of Seranthony Domínguez had arrived.
Yuki Matsui, as a result of Robert Suarez doesn’t strike me as significantly succesful or gifted
Not appropriate; Suarez is first rate, though I stay skeptical of the general package deal. It’s fastball, and Stuff+ likes sinker, though I’m skeptical of his command. The change-up is common. The larger situation is Matsui was not demonstrably higher. They’re such totally different pitchers: Suarez is all power-fastball; Matsui depends closely on two plus-or-better secondaries (slider and splitter). I feel they might be dependable, if uninspiring, closers for any MLB crew. It’s drawback for the Padres to have.
Robert Stephenson, as a result of Carlos Estévez is outright unhealthy
Useless on arrival: Stephenson missed all the season. He tore his UCL, like, minutes after I printed my predictions. In the meantime, Estévez was wonderful. He throws an influence slider and energy change, each of which in all probability wouldn’t have sufficient velo differential from his 97-mph fastball. Which is to say, a wider velo differential would possibly enhance them extra. However, additionally, 90-mph change-ups are merely good in and of themselves. I feel pitching fashions see it as a nasty sinker and never , exhausting change-up—though I might be projecting my very own incorrect analysis of his pitch traits.
Estévez’s fastball, although, is unhealthy, and whereas he escaped 2024 largely unscathed, the underlying metrics steered he acquired fortunate. Cleansing up his stroll fee helped preserve him afloat.
However, once more, finally this comes right down to Stephenson actually not throwing a single pitch. And he in all probability gained’t for many of 2025, too.
James McArthur, as a result of he may very well be elite
Spoiler: he’s not. It was a enjoyable small-sample train, although. McArthur really added some velo and fared worse than in 2023. He discovered extra whiffs between his slider-curve pair, however all the things acquired squared up extra. The elevated velo made it such that each pitches got here in a lot flatter, and whereas it created extra whiffs it made them extra susceptible—an odd however official catch-22. The change-up, which was excellent at managing contact, acquired barreled badly.
I feel there’s nonetheless one thing right here, however the Royals must tinker with it. Lucas Erceg ought to be the 2025 incumbent.
Andrew Nardi, as a result of Tanner Scott has had an abysmal spring whereas Nardi labored on a splitter (don’t take a look at Nardi’s spring coaching FIP, please)
So, so improper. However, additionally, that is pudding-proof that reliever seasons are terribly fickle. Nardi? 24.8% Ok-BB, 2.75 xERA, 2.77 SIERA. Scott? 16.3% Ok-BB, 2.92 xERA, 3.55 SIERA. At worst, they had been break-even; at finest, Nardi was higher.
That is utilizing knowledge to govern a story, as a result of my very own pFIP paints Scott as considerably higher.
Living proof why making judgments about three or 4 spring coaching innings is normally a nasty concept. Tanner Scott doesn’t know the place the ball goes, however except for that he has nice capital-‘s’ Stuff.
Verdict: LReport: 3 for 10
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Hope you all loved. Hope it was at the least a little bit bit informative from a course of standpoint.
