February begins tomorrow however Alex Bregman continues to be unsigned. All through the winter, he has reportedly been sitting on a six-year, $156MM supply from the Astros. Jon Heyman of The New York Put up stories that he additionally has a “profitable” six-year supply, with an opt-out after the primary yr, from one other membership “that is probably not not be excessive on his record.” Heyman mentions the Cubs, Tigers and Purple Sox as golf equipment which have been within the combine. Bob Nightengale of USA At this time lately appeared on Space 45 with Bijani and Creighton and recommended the Blue Jays might need a six-year supply out to Bregman.
The twists and turns of the Bregman saga have been nicely documented thus far. Going again to the Astros appeared like a robust risk firstly of the winter and there has clearly been mutual curiosity in a reunion however a spot in talks with regards to the financials, with Bregman reportedly trying to get one thing near $200MM.
The $156MM supply is close-ish to that however Heyman and Nightengale each relay that Bregman seen that as a paycut. That provide would include a median annual worth of $26MM. Bregman signed an extension with the Astros again in March of 2019, a five-year, $100MM pact. That was solely a $20MM AAV however it was backloaded. Bregman acquired a $10MM signing bonus after which had a wage of $11MM within the first three years of that deal, adopted by salaries of $28.5MM within the final two. Although the current supply from Houston would have include an AAV bump in contrast that complete contract, it seems the rapid downgrade in wage wasn’t passable.
That led to Bregman getting curiosity from different golf equipment and the Astros pivoting to different gamers. They acquired Isaac Paredes within the Kyle Tucker deal after which signed Christian Walker. These two, together with Jeremy Peña and Jose Altuve, appeared to fill the Houston infield and block Bregman’s path again to the membership. Extra lately, stories have emerged that recommended the door is definitely open a crack. The membership apparently has some willingness to re-sign Bregman, transfer Paredes to second and Altuve to left area.
That’s a little bit of an ungainly match, however the identical might be mentioned of Bregman’s different doable touchdown spots. The Purple Sox have Rafael Devers at third and prospects like Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer charging in direction of the second base opening. Shifting Devers over to first base makes some sense on account of his poor protection, however he appears reluctant to make that transfer and Boston has Triston Casas at first and Masataka Yoshida a probable designated hitter. The Tigers can be blocking Jace Jung, a high prospect who has already cracked the majors, from common taking part in time. The Cubs would equally be blocking Matt Shaw. The Jays can be blocking a bunch of potential third baseman that features Orelvis Martínez, Addison Barger and Ernie Clement.
Financially, the golf equipment are in several positions, per figures from RosterResource and Cot’s Baseball Contracts. The Tigers mission to have an Opening Day payroll of $118MM. That’s nicely past final yr’s $98MM determine however they had been within the $120-140MM vary within the two prior years. Signing Bregman would push them previous that however might be justified after final yr’s shock playoff push. As of final week, their talks with Bregman had been reportedly at a standstill.
The Cubs have a aggressive stability tax variety of $207MM and the Purple Sox $210MM. This yr’s base tax threshold is $241MM, that means each golf equipment are greater than $30MM away from that line. They’ve each paid the tax lately, so attending to the road and even crossing it may possibly’t be explicitly dominated out, although each golf equipment reportedly favor the concept of signing Bregman to a short-term deal.
The Jays, in the meantime, are nicely above the remainder on this group. They mission for a $250MM payroll and $273MM CBT quantity, each of which might be franchise information by important margins. Final yr’s $225MM Opening Day payroll was a brand new report on the time. They went narrowly over the CBT line in 2023 and had been projected to take action once more final yr, earlier than their disappointing season led to a commerce deadline selloff that allowed them to limbo beneath. Although they’re in uncharted waters, they reportedly nonetheless have wiggle room after agreeing to a cope with Max Scherzer.
The Cubs had been the one one of many non-Houston golf equipment talked about right here to pay the tax in 2024, that means they’d be topic to the stiffest penalties for signing Bregman. Since he rejected a qualifying supply, any membership other than Houston that indicators him can be topic to draft choose forfeiture. As a tax payor, the Cubs would forfeit their second- and fifth-highest picks in addition to $1MM from subsequent yr’s worldwide bonus pool area. The Jays and Purple Sox, who didn’t pay the tax and aren’t revenue-sharing recipients, would solely forfeit $500K of pool area and their second-highest choose. The Jays already surrendered a choose to signal Anthony Santander, so they’d really give up their third-highest choose if in addition they signed Bregman. The Tigers, as a revenue-sharing recipient, would hand over their third-best choose. Houston stands to obtain compensation if Bregman indicators elsewhere, although since they paid the tax final yr, they’d solely obtain a choose after the fourth spherical of the upcoming draft. Re-signing Bregman would take that potential compensation away.
Regardless of the inelegant roster suits, groups appear to be keen to make it work in some way. An unsigned participant this near the beginning of spring coaching would usually have to begin contemplating short-term contracts. That occurred final winter with the so-called “Boras 4” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger, who all signed in February of March, inking two- or three-year offers together with opt-outs. Boras additionally represents Bregman and Pete Alonso, who’re each unsigned now.
Alonso appears more likely to be taking place the short-term route, having lately mentioned some three-year preparations with the Mets. Studies on Bregman, nevertheless, have recommended that’s much less seemingly. Final week, it was reported that Bregman has a number of gives of no less than 5 years. The Astros appear to be one in all them, as they’ve reportedly stored their supply out to Bregman whilst they’ve pursued different strikes.
Bregman, it appears, has been caught in a kind of limbo zone. Based mostly on the stories, he has an honest quantity of curiosity however not fairly sufficient to stand up to his asking value, which has led to this holding sample. MLBTR predicted him for a seven-year deal price $182MM firstly of the offseason. As talked about, he was trying to get a bit past that, into the $200MM vary, however his gives have seemingly are available in at a barely decrease stage.
The Astros have reportedly had Jorge Polanco as their Bregman backup plan, however he has agreed to return to the Mariners on a brand new deal. Whether or not that leads the Astros to extend their supply to Bregman stays to be seen. They’re recognized to be searching for a left-handed outfielder. Signing Polanco, a switch-hitter, would have been an oblique means of doing that. Altuve seemingly would have ended up in left area however it might have added a lefty bat to the lineup regardless. They may now think about a extra direct possibility like signing Alex Verdugo or Jason Heyward. Bregman is right-handed however a extra thrilling participant general than both of these two, although the membership has been linked to Verdugo this offseason and signed Heyward late final yr after he was launched by the Dodgers.
Whether or not or not the Astros pivot with Polanco off the board, it appears different golf equipment are lurking, maybe in an identical value vary. How this performs out may have ripple results to different gamers. The Jays have additionally been lurking within the Alonso market however absolutely received’t signal each. Pitchers like Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta are additionally unsigned and have been linked to a few of these golf equipment. Pitchers and catchers report back to spring coaching in lower than two weeks.
