After a brutal 2023 season, right-hander Alek Manoah returned to the Blue Jays’ rotation in early Might with the hope of reestablishing himself as one of many sport’s high younger arms. Sadly, that objective didn’t even final a month as Manoah was sidelined after simply 5 begins and wound up present process Tommy John surgical procedure in early June. The righty’s timetable for return to the mound has been unclear since then, however not too long ago Manoah himself offered an replace to Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star as a part of an interview for the Star’s “Deep Left Area” baseball podcast. In the course of the interview, Manoah recognized August as his goal for a return to motion.
“…to go be a deadline acquisition for the Toronto Blue Jays and simply assist as a lot as I can over the ultimate two months of the season, that’s what I’m striving for,” Manoah stated on the podcast. “I’m striving to get bullpens in March, to get to stay BPs in June, after which get some rehabs going and hopefully be able to assist this group down the stretch.”
That timeline would have Manoah returning to the mound in Toronto roughly fourteen months after first going underneath the knife. That’s hardly an atypical timeline for a pitcher within the right-hander’s scenario on condition that rehabbing Tommy John surgical procedure often takes between 12 and 18 months, although Manoah acknowledged that “bumps within the street” down the road may complicate or delay the best timetable he laid out.
In fact, even a wholesome return to the mound in early August would include questions. The proper-hander was final wholesome and efficient again in 2022, when he posted a sterling 2.24 ERA in 196 2/3 innings of labor for the Jays en path to a third-place end in AL Cy Younger award voting and the primary All-Star look of his profession. That implausible efficiency appeared to point that Manoah was ticketed for long-term success on the entrance of Toronto’s rotation, however the 2023 season threw that plan off the rails as he struggled to a 5.87 ERA with a 6.01 FIP in 19 begins and hung out within the minor leagues because of his poor efficiency.
Manoah’s return to the Jays’ rotation final Might was one thing of a combined bag. His 3.70 ERA throughout 5 begins was strong sufficient, whereas his 25.2% strikeout fee and seven.8% stroll fee had been basically consistent with his numbers from 2021 and ’22. With that being stated, Manoah was getting crushed when batters did make contact along with his pitches. He surrendered 5 homers in simply 24 1/3 innings of labor final yr and posted a ghastly 10.8% barrel fee. That got here in a pattern measurement of simply 65 batted balls, in fact, and given the truth that Manoah underwent UCL surgical procedure shortly thereafter it’s truthful to query how indicative that efficiency will probably be of his talents when he returns to the mound. It’s definitely removed from inconceivable to think about Manoah, nonetheless simply 27, re-establishing himself as a top quality rotation piece as soon as he’s put rehab behind him and resumed pitching.
Within the meantime, nevertheless, the Jays are developing their 2025 rotation with out anticipating him to be a serious a part of the equation. As issues stand, veterans Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, and Chris Bassitt stand as a trio of confirmed arms whereas Bowden Francis flashed high-end outcomes late within the 2024 season. Yariel Rodríguez at present figures to spherical out the group with Jake Bloss obtainable as a depth possibility at Triple-A. Proper-hander Jeff Hoffman signed with the membership on a three-year deal that ensures him $33MM late final week, however regardless of hypothesis all through the winter he may look to pitch out of the rotation along with his subsequent membership the Jays have indicated they’ll be utilizing him within the bullpen.
It’s an honest rotation combine even with out Hoffman concerned, however there’s clearly room for enchancment. Gausman endured the worst season he’s had since breaking out through the 2020 marketing campaign final yr; he pitched to a 3.82 ERA (105 ERA+) with 21.4% strikeout fee that was down almost ten factors from the yr prior. Berrios pitched to mid-rotation outcomes final yr but additionally had troubling peripherals, together with a 19.5% strikeout fee and a 4.72 FIP. Each of these numbers counsel Berrios could profile extra as a back-of-the-rotation arm if he can’t bounce again going ahead, and that’s probably the place Bassitt suits finest as nicely after he posted a below-average 4.16 ERA in his age-35 season final yr.
Given all of the questions surrounding a rotation that’s poised to enter 2025 hoping for Gausman to rebound and Francis to show he’s able to pitching at an above-average stage over the course of a full season as a starter, it’s hardly a shock that the membership has been linked to a variety of starters in free company this winter. Each Corbin Burnes and Max Fried already landed elsewhere regardless of involvement from Toronto in each markets, however Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta stay obtainable as potential upgrades the membership has reported curiosity in.
