It’s the identical previous, usual within the American League West.
My history-based prediction system envisions the Houston Astros profitable the division in 2025, simply as they’ve achieved in each full-length season since 2017.
I’ve in contrast the file for every AL West membership throughout the previous three seasons (2022-2024) towards the corresponding marks for 1,318 groups throughout the period of free company (which started in 1976), in search of parallels from the previous that may provide hints in regards to the future.
I appeared particularly for the 50 closest matches (CMs) from the previous for every present workforce, after which examined their subsequent performances.
The 2022-2024 Astros, for instance, most carefully resembled the 1976-1978 Cincinnati Reds, the famed Large Pink Machine that gained the ’76 World Sequence and completed in second place twice throughout the three-year span. The Reds subsequently went 90-71 and grabbed one other divisional title in 1979.
My 2025 prediction for any given membership relies on 4 rungs of a ladder. Every of the present workforce’s 50 CMs that topped .500 in its following season is price one level, with a playoff qualification bringing two further factors, a league title one other three, and a world championship an additional 4.
Houston’s 50 CMs yielded a complete of 115 factors, another greater than the Seattle Mariners acquired, setting the stage for a good AL West race. Right here is the expected order of end:
1. Houston Astros
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Sacramento Athletics
You’ll discover breakdowns for all 5 groups under. Every abstract begins with the membership’s 2025 prediction factors, adopted by its 2024 file, then the next-season outcomes for the 50 CMs. The ultimate line discloses the very closest match of all. (Don’t be alarmed if the next-year file for the closest CM differs from my total prediction. What actually issues is the cumulative rating for all 50 CMs.)
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2025 prediction factors: 115
2024 file: 88-73
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 4 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 7 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 21 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 36 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 1979 Reds (90-71)
2025 prediction factors: 114
2024 file: 85-77
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 7 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 21 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 39 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 1998 Dodgers (83-79)
2025 prediction factors: 72
2024 file: 78-84
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 2 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 4 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 12 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 28 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2009 Rockies (92-70)
2025 prediction factors: 34
2024 file: 63-99
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 6 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 15 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2019 Royals (59-103)
2025 prediction factors: 32
2024 file: 69-93
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Sequence in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 2 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 6 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 10 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 1977 Tigers (74-88)
