That is the yr for the Orioles.
Baltimore has received the American League East solely twice since 1998, nevertheless it’s destined to return to the highest of division in 2025. So says my history-based prediction system.
My laptop program compares every workforce’s file in the course of the previous three seasons (2022-2024) towards the corresponding marks for 1,318 golf equipment from the period of free company, which started in 1976.
The 2025 forecast for a given workforce is set by its 50 closest matches (CMs), the 50 golf equipment from the previous that have been most much like the present-day squad.
My system focuses on the following efficiency of every CM. The Tampa Bay Rays of 2022-2024, for instance, have been remarkably much like the Los Angeles Dodgers of 2008-2010. That congruence conjures up a query: What occurred to the following Dodgers, particularly the 2011 Los Angeles workforce?
I totaled up the next-year information of the 50 CMs for every 2025 membership, awarding one level for every workforce that surpassed .500, two extra factors for a playoff qualification, three further factors for a league pennant, and 4 additional factors for a world championship.
Baltimore emerges from this course of with 117 factors, simply probably the most within the AL East. Therefore my projected order of end in 2025:
1. Baltimore Orioles
2. New York Yankees
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Boston Pink Sox
5. Toronto Blue Jays
You’ll discover breakdowns for all 5 groups beneath. Every abstract begins with the membership’s 2025 prediction factors, adopted by its 2024 file, then the next-season outcomes for the 50 CMs. The ultimate line discloses the very closest match of all, the present membership’s doppelganger, if you’ll. (Don’t be alarmed if the next-year file for the closest CM varies from my total prediction. That occurs. What actually issues is the cumulative rating for all 50 CMs.)
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2025 prediction factors: 117
2024 file: 91-71
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Collection in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 6 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 24 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 39 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2014 Reds (76-86)
2025 prediction factors: 86
2024 file: 94-68
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Collection in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 19 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 35 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2022 Astros (106-56)
2025 prediction factors: 73
2024 file: 80-82
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Collection in subsequent season: 2 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 14 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 28 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2011 Dodgers (82-79)
2025 prediction factors: 56
2024 file: 81-81
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Collection in subsequent season: 0 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 3 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 11 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 25 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2004 Blue Jays (67-94)
2025 prediction factors: 48
2024 file: 74-88
Closest matches (CM): 50
Received World Collection in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Received league title in subsequent season: 1 of fifty
Certified for playoffs in subsequent season: 7 of fifty
Topped .500 in subsequent season: 27 of fifty
Closest match of all for 2025: 2012 Rockies (64-98)
