The Winter Conferences got here and went with out the Royals making a single transaction, regardless of what appears to be like like a market that’s shifting a bit faster than the glacial motion of the previous couple of off-seasons. However bear in mind (a) the Royals didn’t make any main strikes on the Winter Conferences final yr and added Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Hunter Renfroe within the week afterward, and (b) the Royals have already made two important strikes re-signing Wacha and including Jonathan India.
Nonetheless, there may be nonetheless a lot to do in the event that they wish to solidify their place as a contender. Based on numerous studies, largely from MLB.com author Anne Rogers, the Royals wish to add one other middle-of-the-order bat, fill out their bench with somebody that has positional versatility, and add a swingman pitcher who can begin or relieve.
Picollo acknowledged the quiet week, describing his strategy to the market.
“You may’t power it. You’re making an attempt to be opportunistic when issues come alongside. It’s like once we signed Wacha, it’s like, ‘OK, now we now have some extra pitching to attempt to get India. Now that India’s on our group, what’s our group seem like? Finally, we’ll hit on the appropriate transfer, the appropriate free agent and go, ‘This one is sensible.’”
There are two completely different approaches GMs can take to an low season. One is to be aggressive and get the sort of transactions you need. You seize the sort of participant you suppose could make your group a winner, otherwise you commerce away a participant that you’ll want to get off your roster. The benefit to that strategy is you accomplish a targeted directive, however the draw back is that generally it’s possible you’ll overpay for a participant or in a commerce to make it occur.
The second strategy is to be extra affected person and work with the market and search for arbitrage the place you could find it. You enhance your roster by including worth even when it might not match precisely the profile of the sort of transaction you’re searching for. The benefit to this strategy is you get good worth in offers, however the draw back is the items on the roster could not essentially match collectively that effectively.
I believe Picollo needed to take the previous strategy when it got here to his main aims – including an on-base hitter and preserving the core of his rotation. That’s why he jumped on re-signing Michael Wacha (it helped that Wacha needed to remain) and that truly made it simpler to drag the set off on a deal to maneuver Brady Singer for Jonathan India. He appears to be taking the latter strategy to fill out the roster. The remaining aims this winter may very well be stuffed by lots of completely different candidates, and the Royals is probably not significantly picky who it’s, as long as they get good worth.
Getting good worth is critical while you’re a small market membership, in any case. The Royals could also be hitting up in opposition to their payroll limitations in line with Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon at The Athletic.
The Kansas Metropolis Royals count on their payroll to be in the identical $120 million vary it was final season, in line with sources briefed on their plans. FanGraphs estimates the group’s present payroll is $116 million, leaving little flexibility for the entrance workplace to amass the extra hitter it’s in search of.
Rogers provides the Royals have “restricted payroll flexibility.” Nonetheless, budgets in baseball are usually not inelastic. Picollo has indicated earlier than that there’s an understanding of how a lot they spend, and if the group involves possession and desires so as to add a participant that will take them over their projected quantity, there may be flexibility to approve that sort of transaction. Consider the $120 million quantity as a advice, however not a tough cap.
However with these numbers in thoughts, the report from Rosenthal and Sammon that the Royals are in search of a commerce to discover a hitter quite than free company makes extra sense.
Per a group supply briefed on Kansas Metropolis’s strikes, the Royals plan to pursue a middle-of-the-order bat and usually tend to purchase that bat by a commerce than free company. This won’t rule out the opportunity of buying one other pitcher or bench participant, however the precedence stays so as to add a slugger.
The free agent market is just not an awesome one, however inflation appears to have hit that market as effectively ($17 million for Michael Conforto????). There are some first rate bats probably obtainable that would assist the Royals. I believe a Cody Bellinger or Nolan Arenado is out of the query as a result of value, and the asking value for Alec Bohm appears too excessive, however a Taylor Ward (and there are studies the Angels are near buying and selling an outfielder) or an unsexy however stable pickup like Mike Yastrzemski may very well be attainable and nonetheless be an improve over what the Royals have.
The commerce of India and probably an extra commerce to usher in one other hitter does elevate questions in regards to the incumbents within the lineup, specifically Michael Massey, Maikel Garcia, Hunter Renfroe, and MJ Melendez. Rogesr notes that Renfroe and Melendez haven’t drawn commerce curiosity – no shock there. However studying between the traces, the group does appear to be buying Garcia, regardless of his latest elbow surgical procedure (he needs to be prepared for spring coaching). Rogers studies his title has come up in talks with groups interested in his means to play shortstop. However when requested about Garcia’s position this yr, supervisor Matt Quatraro was fast to emphasise his versatility.
“We’ve seen his versatility. He’s the shortstop if one thing have been to occur to Bobby (Witt). He can play second. We’ve put him within the outfield a pair instances. I do know within the spring we’ll simply transfer him round, however primarily at third base.”
That doesn’t sound like somebody that’s set to be your on a regular basis third baseman. Garcia took a step again offensively, and whereas his protection is stable, the Royals clearly want upgrades within the lineup. If the outfield is unmoveable, then third base looks like the very best place to start out. And if Garcia nonetheless has worth – not like Melendez – then it is sensible to supply him in trades.
The Royals have been linked to free agent Josh Rojas in studies, however he appears extra like an inheritor to the annual Chris Owings/Garrett Hampson roster spot the Royals like to order every year. The membership is supposedly open to bringing Adam Frazier again, though you must suppose he’s Plan B (or Plan C) at this level. In the event that they actually needed to carry him again, he’d be again – he’s not at dwelling mulling over quite a few provides from groups.
Brett Baty is a extra attention-grabbing risk, somebody that will seemingly begin at third base for the Royals in the event that they picked him up. I can’t say I’m an enormous fan – he had early prospect standing however the instruments by no means appeared to translate into loud numbers within the minors. I get the concept of shopping for low on a man with the hopes your hitting growth can unlock extra potential. However the Royals shouldn’t be in growth mode (and their hitting growth observe file has had blended outcomes). They’ve a competition window now they should reap the benefits of, and it doesn’t make lots of sense to commerce out one younger creating participant (Garcia) for an additional (Baty).
I believe Massey may very well be on the transfer, however whereas I believe he’s an honest sufficient hitter, I don’t know that there shall be a lot of a marketplace for him. He has a really low on-base common and has hassle staying on the sphere. Groups may need him, but it surely appears more likely to be a type of conditions the place he’s extra helpful to the Royals than what they’re being supplied. I can see him filling extra of a utility position – India seemingly gained’t be at second base on daily basis anyway along with his subpar protection. We’ll see if both is requested to play some outfield in spring coaching.
Search for the Royals to be extra energetic within the subsequent few weeks. I like what they’ve achieved up to now, however the items don’t fairly match and it will likely be vital for them to make the appropriate strikes and capitalize on their success this yr.
